While the rest of us are searching for the Black Friday door busters or settling in on the couch for some comfy pants and leftovers, the Hawkeyes are set to take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Lincoln.
The last two in this series have been decided by a game-winning FG from Drew Stevens.
The folks in Vegas think Iowa ends that streak of walk-off wins on Friday. FanDuel Sportsbook opened this one with Iowa favored by 4.5 points. During the week, the line crept up to as much as 6.5, but at the end of the week we’re back down Iowa -5.5. The over/under has drifted slightly higher to 39.5 total points.
Here at The Pants, we’re a bit more nervous in this one. While the entirety of the staff is on Iowa to win outright, only one of us is taking the Hawkeyes to cover. Collectively, we’re calling for a final score of Iowa 21, Nebraska 17. That has us taking the Huskers with the points and on the under.
A week ago, we went 0-2 with our call of Iowa to cover and the over. That moves us back into the red on the season at 10-12. Nothing like getting back to black on Black Friday.
Here’s a look at our individual predictions for Friday.
JPinIC
Well, a week ago I felt pretty confident senior day would be enough to have the Hawkeyes motivated and ready to truly bounce back against an inferior opponent with a very middling defense. They did not. It was the worst offensive performance we’ve seen from Iowa this season and now I’m just really struggling to have any confidence heading to Lincoln.
Despite the lack of confidence, the Huskers are not a very good team in the places where Iowa needs them to be weak. Their OL and DL are soft spots and I think that’s the difference in this one. I still think Iowa will get something going on the ground, where Nebraska is particularly weak, and I will continue to trust Phil Parker against young QBs. Wetjen is good for 3 points minimum on field position, I’ll say the defense gets at least one turnover and the offense can put together one drive, right?!?!
Give me more Husker tears on another walk-off.
Iowa 20, Nebraska 17
Greg Hollingsworth
I’ll admit it, I was vastly overconfident last week, but I never expected Iowa to revert to Brain-ball for 3 full quarters and put forth a truly embarrassing effort against Sparty. I’m not sure if they looked past Michigan State to the Huskers, but if they can’t get out of the gates in Lincoln, I’m less than confident that they will be able to stage another late comeback against an offense that features one of the best RBs in the B1G, even without Dylan Raiola in the backfield.
Fortunately, Nebraska’s run defense isn’t very good (and it’s even worse than Michigan State’s) and Iowa is rather good at running the ball, at least when they don’t fall back into the classic “3 yards and a cloud of dust” type running game that I thought we’d moved away from. Let’s all hope that we see Mark Gronowski run the ball 2-3 times before his first pass (it really feels like he needs some contact to get his adrenaline under control) and Iowa runs the ball down the Bugeaters’ throat all damn day.
Iowa 27, Nebraska 17
Matt Reisener
Through three and a half quarters last week, I was fully prepared to pick Nebraska in this game. Iowa looked like a team that had lost its winning edge after two close losses to USC and Oregon and believed, on some level, it had nothing left to play for with the College Football Playoff out of reach. After Iowa’s miraculous fourth-quarter rally to narrowly defeat a dreadful Michigan State team and Nebraska’s embarrassing 37-10 beat down at the hands of Penn State last Saturday night, the Hawkeyes’ chances at victory now appear significantly higher.
Nebraska will be without starting QB Dylan Raiola in this game, but freshman TJ Lateef has looked mostly solid in relief thus far, and the Husker receiving corps is good enough to challenge Iowa’s secondary if TJ Hall is unable to suit up. However, it’s Nebraska’s ground game that arguably poses the bigger threat. Emmett Johnson is one of the best backs in the Big Ten, and the Hawkeyes have uncharacteristically struggled to stop the run in big games this year. However, Iowa will have a massive advantage in the trenches. Nebraska has one of the best pass defenses in the country, but opposing teams have had little trouble running on the Huskers this season to the tune of 22 rushing touchdowns and nearly five yards per carry. Meanwhile, Nebraska has surrendered 30 sacks this season and gave up six tackles for loss against Penn State this week. In each of Iowa’s last four wins against Nebraska, Hawkeye defensive linemen have either forced turnovers or safeties in critical moments in the fourth quarter to help secure an Iowa victory. Don’t be shocked to see that trend continue.
If recent history tells us anything, this game will be decided by one score, and probably by a walk-off field goal. My gut says Drew Stevens and his teammates will be the ones celebrating at the end of this one.
Iowa 20, Nebraska 17
GingerHawk
Well I felt a lot more confident about this one before the Michigan State game. Last Saturday was the only time this year where I felt Iowa looked like they just didn’t care to be there, and that was a big surprise. Maybe the two straight heartbreaking losses took more out of the team than I thought they would’ve, it certainly appeared that way. I’m hoping it’s more so that they were looking ahead to this Nebraska game and that last week was a wake up call that they can’t take anyone for granted.
They’ll need to apply that lesson again on Black Friday. I don’t think Nebraska is as good as Iowa but the Hawks need to actually assert that. Iowa needs the run game to be clicking since the Huskers are second best in the county in passing yards allowed, but the good news is they’re 93rd in rushing yards allowed. On the flip side, Nebraska may try the same strategy on Iowa with the Big Ten’s top rusher, Emmett Johnson, and Iowa has given up more yards on the ground that we’d like to see. I can see this turning into a good old fashioned ground and pound game, low scoring, and coming down to yet another walk off score. Throw in a safety or some special teams goofery for good measure.
Iowa 18, Nebraska, 17
Consensus: Iowa 21, Nebraska 17
So there you have it – the Hawkeyes get out of Lincoln with another tight win and Iowa fans everywhere breathe a sigh of relief!
How about you, Hawkeye fans? Let’s hear those predictions in the comments below!
