The No. 3 Michigan Wolverines hit the road to face the No. 10 Illinois Fighting Illini tonight at 8 p.m. on FOX. Dusty May’s team has an opportunity to clinch an outright Big Ten regular season championship, but Illinois will present a serious challenge on both ends of the floor, specifically their ability to control the tempo and dominate the offensive glass.
Illinois possesses the nation’s most efficient offense, averaging 133.0 points per 100 possessions. The Illini are one of the slowest-paced
teams in the country as well, which will be a drastic contrast of style against Michigan’s up-tempo nature. Out of 365 teams, the Fighting Illini rank 327th in average possession length (18.9 seconds) and 285th in tempo.
“It’s going to be a limited possession game. They play one of the slowest tempos in the country, so we have to be able to grind out and play with great discipline in a low-possession game,” May recently told the media. “It can only help us if we face a team like this in the Big Ten or NCAA Tournament. Each mistake is more costly when you’re playing half the possessions.”
Michigan is the polar opposite — ranking eighth in average possession length (15.2 seconds) and 16th in tempo, so the team that’s able to control the pace of the game should win. The Wolverines weren’t able to control the tempo in a loss to Duke last week since the Blue Devils limited possessions, which is a formula Illinois will also likely try to execute.
In addition to having an ultra-efficient offense, the Fighting Illini are one of the nation’s premier rebounding teams. Illinois leads the Big Ten in total rebounds per game (41.2) and offensive rebounds per game (12.3), and is third in the nation in offensive rebounding rate (39.6 percent). Michigan will certainly have its work cut out for it on the glass.
“When the shot goes up, it is feudal warfare. Every time that ball goes up, they’re not accepting block outs,” May said. “They’re not accepting anything other than giving maximum effort towards the ball. They’re going to the glass from every angle, every single time. They really challenge you in a lot of areas. If we can limit them to one shot, then we have a chance.”
The Wolverines will also be tasked with slowing down a very skilled lineup, highlighted by Big Ten Player of the Year candidate Keaton Wagler (18.2 PPG), as well as Andrej Stojakovic (13.8 PPG). Illinois is notorious for attacking the weakest defenders on the floor, so Michigan’s switch-heavy defense will have to play together as one and communicate at a high level.
“They hunt matchups. We’re going to know who they think are our inept defenders, whether we think it or not, because they’re going to hunt those matchups,” May said. “They have great positional size, their bigs pick and pop, and they have the frontrunner for Player of the Year in the league, so I can go on and on about what’s going to keep me up at night.”
In order to win tonight and secure the outright Big Ten title, Michigan must control the pace, win the rebounding battle, and contain Wagler and Stojakovic. It definitely won’t be easy to go into a hostile environment and defeat Illinois for the first time in seven years, but the Wolverines just have to execute and play up to their full potential.
