Game notes
- Time and date: Thursday, October 15 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: Protective Stadium — Birmingham, AL
- Spread: East Carolina (-4.5)
- Over/under: 47.5
- All-time series: East Carolina leads, 9-4
- Last meeting: East Carolina 63, UAB 14 — November 16, 2023
- Current streak: East Carolina, 7 (2007-13)
Setting the scene
East Carolina and UAB have shared the American Conference for each of the last four seasons. Somehow, this is the first meeting between the programs since 2013. They met regularly in the late 2000s and early 2010s in Conference USA, and ECU dominated the series. The Pirates have won seven consecutive by an aggregate score of 282-154, or an average score of 40-22.
ECU won its conference opener last week to improve to 11-3 in conference games under Blake Harrell. UAB also won its conference opener back
in September but stumbled in the second half last week at Memphis. Still, the Blazers are clearly improved under Alex Mortensen and receive a golden opportunity to showcase that improvement Thursday night on a national stage.
East Carolina Pirates outlook
East Carolina (3-2, 1-0 American) has improved every week this season. The Pirates started 0-2 but now ride a three-game win streak after a second half surge last Saturday against Rice. ECU trailed 9-7 in the third quarter but created separation with a barrage of touchdowns.
ECU struggled mightily on offense during its first three games — including the win over Old Dominion — but progress is being shown under first-year coordinator Jordan Davis. The Pirates are running the ball better through TJ Engleman Jr., who averaged 11 rushing yards per game during the first two losses compared to 121 yards per game during this three-game win streak. Engleman has four total touchdowns in the past two weeks and has emerged as the top back in this offense.
Additionally, the Pirates are 2-0 since inserting Emory Williams as the starting quarterback. The Miami (FL) transfer delivered two touchdowns through the air and one as a runner last week against Rice, and he’s been good with ball security. Still, ECU needs more explosiveness in the passing game. The Pirates have fallen from 21st to 99th in passing yards per game year over year, and Williams will look to involve Ray Ray Joseph to improve that ranking. Williams’ former teammate at Miami, Joseph has generated 209 receiving yards and two touchdowns since ECU made the quarterback change, compared to 68 yards in the first three games.
Although the offense is steadily progressing, ECU’s strength remains the defense. The Pirates pillaged backfields last year, ranking fourth nationally in tackles for loss per game. Even under a new coordinator in Jordon Hankins, that tradition continues. ECU ranks first in the FBS with 10.2 tackles for loss per game, and eight different players have at least three TFLs, including defensive linemen Kieren Davis and Jasiyah Robinson and linebackers Crews Law and DJ Johnson Jr.
As one would expect, ECU fields an effective run defense, letting up just 3.2 yards per carry. The passing defense has been stellar as well. The Pirates are the only FBS team to allow as few as one passing touchdown, and they rank 26th nationally in passing yards allowed per game and 20th in opponent completion percentage. Ayden Duncanson has been the most disruptive player on the back end with a pair of pick-sixes, including one which effectively defeated Old Dominion.
UAB Blazers outlook
UAB (3-3, 1-1 American) is one victory away from tying its highest win total since joining the American. The Blazers haven’t done better than 4-8 since 2022, but the last few weeks have suggested this year might be different.
While UAB dropped its conference opener 38-13 to Memphis, there were plenty of positives in the first half. The Blazers entered the break holding onto a 13-10 lead, and they forced four punts on the Tigers’ first six possessions. UAB played two quarters of excellent defense against one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Veteran defensive coordinator Todd Grantham has completely transformed the unit in his first year at the helm — last year’s defense ranked second-to-last nationally by allowing 38.3 points per game, while this year’s group surrenders just 25.8.
The Blazers rank second nationally in passing defense, yielding just 126.0 yards per game on an opponent completion rate of 58.0 percent. Memphis, which averages 270 passing yards per game, only managed 164 on this UAB secondary. But UAB’s stellar pass defense actually starts up front. The defensive line has regularly invaded the backfield, and edge rusher Marlin Dean leads the conference with 5.0 sacks and 8.0 tackles for loss. Other standouts on defense included inside linebacker Muaaz Byard, whose 40 solo tackles lead the entire FBS, and outside linebacker Ike Esonwune, who has 39 tackles and two interceptions after following Grantham from Oklahoma State.
The side of the ball that needs a spark is the offense. UAB is 129th nationally in passing yards per game with 155.8. Quarterback Ryder Burton is still looking to enter a groove after five-straight starts under 175 yards, but he has shown the capabilities to light up defenses before. Better pass protection could help, as the Blazers have allowed 16 sacks — the most in the American.
UAB inflicts more damage with its 51st-ranked run game, where it has two different 300-yard backs on the season. Rod Robinson II leads the room with 403 rushing yards, while Bam McReynolds adds 316 yards and four touchdowns to the mix. When the Blazers produce a 70-yard rusher, they’re 3-0, and if no running back reaches that threshold, they’re 0-3.
Prediction
Don’t expect many points in this Thursday night primetime showdown.
East Carolina and UAB are much stronger on the defensive side, and both offenses have struggled with consistency, even in their three wins. The Pirates are No. 1 in the country in tackles for loss and provide an effective passing offense, which should create plenty of issues for a UAB team that hasn’t scored more than 26 points against FBS competition this year. Meanwhile, UAB’s No. 2 passing defense could keep East Carolina rather one-dimensional on offense, and the Pirates will require another massive day from TJ Engleman Jr. to win.
In a low-scoring, defensive-driven battle, kicking is essential, and UAB has one of the best in the sport. Jonah Delange was the conference’s Special Teams Player of the Year two seasons ago, and he’s 14-of-16 this season, making a 57-yarder a week ago. Delange will be the difference, as UAB collects a momentum-shifting win for the program Thursday night.
Prediction: UAB 17, East Carolina 14
