Late Friday, MLB Trade Rumors posted their annual salary projections for arbitration-eligible players for next year.
It will be interesting to see how many of these players wind up being signed before the owners’ lockout, which will almost certainly happen after the Dec. 1 expiration of the MLB/MLBPA collective bargaining agreement. It seems likely that teams will want some cost certainty with arb-eligible players before the lockout. For example, we don’t know what the MLB minimum salary will be under
any new CBA, as well as uncertainty about salaries in general.
As always, we await developments. In the meantime, here are the MLBTR projections for the 12 Cubs players who are arb-eligible for 2027, listed in the order they are posted in the MLBTR article.
Justin Steele: $6.8 million
Steele made $6.55 million for four starts in 2025 before his Tommy John surgery ended that season. Then he was paid $6.775 million this year and didn’t throw a single MLB pitch.
2027 will be Steele’s final arb-eligible season, but I don’t see the Cubs paying him even that relatively small sum, not after missing nearly two full seasons. Instead, I would guess they will non-tender him and come to some sort of agreement on a two-year deal that would have incentives in the first year and a vesting option for the second year.
Edward Cabrera: $4.8 million
Cabrera made $4.45 million in 2026 and had a really bad year. Nevertheless, he has talent and two years of team control remaining. This doesn’t seem an unreasonable number.
Braxton Garrett: $1.6 million
Garrett was paid $1.53 million in 2026 as he returned from TJS. He could be a really good under-the-radar rotation guy next year. This seems a very reasonable figure.
Javier Assad: $2.3 million
Assad was paid $1.8 million and the team has a $3.3 million option on him for 2027. He’s under team control through 2028. I would guess the Cubs would rather pay him the $2.3 million figure.
Tyler Austin: $1.3 million
Austin did not play a single game anywhere in 2026. He was expected to back up Michael Busch at first base after hitting well (.293/.377/.568) in six years in NPB.
The Cubs can do better, I think. He’ll likely be non-tendered.
Miguel Amaya: $1.7 million
2027 is Amaya’s first arb-eligible season. Pay the man.
Gabriel Arias: $1.3 million
2027 is Arias’ first arb-eligible season, but this is a tough one. He barely played for the Cubs (seven games, all but one as a pinch-runner/defensive replacement. He’s useful in that role, but perhaps the Cubs can find a minimum-salary guy who can do the same.
Ryan Rolison: $1.1 million
Again, here’s a first-time arb-eligible guy. He had a good season and could be a useful lefty out of the pen for another few years. Pay the man.
Ethan Roberts: $800,000
Roberts finished the year at Triple-A Iowa, where he was optioned after his rehab assignment ended. $800,000 is on the very low end of arb salaries, but Roberts is 29 and hasn’t really shown much at the MLB level. I could go either way on this — pay him, or non-tender him.
Michael Busch: $5.4 million
Here’s another Cub who is first-time arbitration eligible. While his performance declined somewhat from his very good 2025 season, he plays a solid first base and has power. This amount doesn’t seem unreasonable. Busch has three years of team control remaining.
Ben Brown: $1.3 million
There is some uncertainty about Brown’s recovery from his neck injury, but this amount doesn’t seem too much to keep him.
Daniel Palencia: $1.2 million
Pay the man.
