The week before the NBA All-Star break is always a strange one to evaluate, because human nature starts creeping into the margins.
Players are running on fumes, both mentally and physically, and everyone knows a brief pause is coming. Up to that point, it is a grind. The season is relentless and repetitive, and the need for a mental reset is as real as the physical one. Especially because what comes next is the most demanding stretch of the season. The final third. The one where urgency replaces experimentation
and every possession starts to feel heavier.
This is the point where teams start buying into something tangible. Playoff positioning. Avoiding the Play-In. Securing the Play-In. Whatever the goal is, it sharpens focus across the league. The temperature rises, the games feel louder and mistakes linger longer.
So when I look back at Week 17, I’m not entirely sure how much weight to give it. I don’t know if what we saw should register as warning signs, or if it was simply the byproduct of a team running low on gas while playing a style that demands constant engagement. Maybe it was both. Maybe that’s the uncomfortable answer.
On paper, a 1-1 week landed right where most of us expected. The record itself isn’t the issue. It’s the way they arrived there that leaves a little unease sitting in your chest. February has been rough. The Suns, a team that had been locked in quarter after quarter, game after game, have started to show a few cracks. The sharpness hasn’t disappeared, but it has dulled. That edge that defined them earlier feels a little less pronounced.
There are reasons for that. They are no longer sneaking up on anyone. The effort, the pestering defense, the physicality, all of it is well documented now. Opponents come in prepared. They know what’s coming. Add injuries into the mix, and it becomes clear that the pace and intensity Phoenix was maintaining were always going to be difficult to sustain indefinitely. You could hope it would last, but reality has a way of pulling teams back toward the middle.
The real question is what happens next. How far does that regression carry? And in a Western Conference that punishes even minor slippage, what does that mean for where this team ultimately lands when the games start to matter the most?
Week 17 Record: 1-1
vs. Dallas Mavericks, W, 120-111
- Possession Differential: -3.4
- Turnover Differential: -3
- Offensive Rebounding Differential: +10
Phoenix built a 31-point cushion, then nearly let a tanking Dallas squad pull off a heist, shrinking a 21-point lead to six. My brain screamed “Golden State flashback,” but Devin Booker acted as the steady-handed sedative.
vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, L, 136-109
- Possession Differential: -4.6
- Turnover Differential: +2
- Offensive Rebounding Differential: +7
Suns punted. All you need to know.
Inside the Possession Game
- Weekly Possession Differential: -8.0
- Weekly Turnover Differential: -1
- Offensive Rebounding Differential: +17
- Year-to-Date Over/Under .500: +9
Let’s look at the graph, shall we?
Again, there really isn’t a ton of meaningful analysis you can squeeze out of this past week, no matter how hard you stare at it. The first game against Dallas followed a familiar script. Phoenix looked good for a stretch, built a lead that felt comfortable, then watched it evaporate in a way that made you sit up a little straighter. They still won by 9, which is what the standings will remember, even if the path there was a little more stressful than anyone wanted. A win is a win, and sometimes that’s all it needs to be.
The second game lives in a completely different bucket.
The Suns were playing Oklahoma City without three of their top four paid players in Devin Booker, Jalen Green, and Grayson Allen. In that context, what are we really evaluating? There’s only so much you can pull from a game like that when the rotation is flipped on its head and the normal structure is gone. Outside of poking around lineup data and seeing who survived minutes without the usual safety nets, there isn’t much there that carries forward in any meaningful way.
If there is one thing that sticks, it’s Dillon Brooks picking up another technical. It’s annoying, it’s unnecessary, and it’s something that stays on the radar as the season moves along. Because those moments have a way of compounding when games start tightening up.
So when I look at the graph, when I look at the results, the whole thing feels off balance. Not broken, not alarming, simply uneven. And that’s exactly what the week before the All-Star break usually is. If you had to sum it up in one word, it wouldn’t be elegant or analytical or predictive. It would be wonky.
Week 18 Preview
Relax. Kick your feet up and enjoy the time off. Because once they come back for the final 27 games, the real test begins. Of those 27 remaining games, 14 are on the road, and 13 are at home. There is also a seven-game road trip baked into March, seven games in ten days. Brutal. No doubt about it. But this team has earned the right to be in the fight during this stretch, and that alone should make it entertaining.
Week 18 gets going Thursday in San Antonio. The Spurs, currently sitting as the second seed in the Western Conference, have been playing really good basketball and will be a legitimate challenge. They also know the Suns have already beaten them twice this season, both times in Phoenix. This one is in their building, and unfortunately, the Suns will be without the services of Dillon Brooks.
Two nights later, the Suns return home for the first night of a back-to-back against Orlando. It’s a 3:00pm tip against a Magic team that, unlike the Suns, has not lived up to expectations this season. The week wraps the following night, also at home, against the Portland Trail Blazers.
The schedule tightens. The margin shrinks. And now we see what this team really has.
45% of the community nailed the 1-1 record last week. 47% thought 2-0 would be the result. I don’t blame you for believing, right FanSince93?
How do you see the week playing out?
