Sunday afternoon saw a terrific catch be Tyrone Taylor in left field, robbing a homer, as well as Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 40th homer. One of those two things has now happened by a left-handed hitter just twice in all of Cubs history. One of the things playing for the Cubs, be it PCA hitting his 40th homer of the season left handed or anyone who contributed to 62 Cub homers in August, is that when you talk about history, you are talking about 150 years. Being the first or even one of the first to do
something is incredible. You’re talking about a century and a half of history.
And so it is that Pete Crow-Armstrong slowly drifts where no Cub has ever been. Sammy Sosa once had a season with 66 homers and 18 steals. As near as I can tell, that is the homer plus steals record by a Cub. Pete is now sitting at 73. His 40/30+ season is a Cub first. His 40 homers as a lefty is the second ever. Pete is a couple of months younger than Ernie Banks as the youngest Cub ever with 40 homers. He’s in some pretty rarified territory.
Unfortunately, none of that matter all too much on Sunday. Clay Holmes did not have his best stuff. To my untrained eye, this was a cruel matchup. Marlins starter Tyler Phillips threw several pitches at or below the strike zone. Holmes wasn’t working down near that low part of the strike zone. So the Marlins benefitted from several low strikes and it didn’t seem like the Cubs did much or at all. For what it’s worth, the Cubs broadcast said that home plate umpire Ben May grades out as pitcher friendly. The eye test wouldn’t argue. It was a throwback to ball from the 90’s that I remember watching with a wide strike zone. In this case, it was low. I didn’t wait to see the ump scorecard, but as near as I could tell watching the live broadcast, a few pitches in key spots went the Marlins way. It happens. I’m not trying to make excuses. They played well. The Cubs didn’t execute over and over. The team that played better won.
It’s certainly an unfortunate day. Combined with the historic homer, it’s a really tough day. A day that felt like one to celebrate so quickly turned to a lopsided game in the other direction. For whatever reason, Holmes was off. It looked to me, again, a lay person, that he had a ton of arm side run on his pitches and an awful lot of them were ending up out of the strike zone. Obviously, that’s all very easy for me to say and I’ve no doubt if there was some simple mechanical thing that could be cleaned up, the Cubs would have cleaned it up.
It’s always tough though when a game like this happens. Holmes has felt so invincible. No one is ever fully impervious to an off day. Holmes wasn’t. And this one just got away. You hate to see it, but really it is what it is. Cub pitchers walked six batters, three of those scored. They hit a batter and that one scored. So they really gave away a ton of runs in this one. The entire team is built around not walking hitters and making plays defensively. The team isn’t really strong enough to survive when either of those things go awry.
On to Milwaukee. Hopefully the Cubs can grab a couple of wins there.
Three positives:
- Nothing really more positive than Pete Crow-Armstrong with a homer and a sacrifice fly on the day. Another good day in one of the best seasons any of us will ever witness.
- Seiya Suzuki had a double and drew a walk in the game.
- Daniel Palencia worked the eighth inning and got a strikeout and a double play around a walk. It’s unfortunate to see him working in such a lopsided game, but there isn’t a lot of runway left for him to get right.
- A hat tip to Shelby Miller and Justin Steele putting in different kind of work over the weekend as they try to get a look with the big club before playoff rosters are set. Both men have had difficult journeys back to a major league mound and have had to put in a ton of work. Both men appear close to a return.
Game 144, September 6: Marlins 10, Cubs 3 (81-63)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Michael Conforto (.093). 1-3, BB
- Hero: Tyrone Taylor (.092). 1-3, 2B
- Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.090). 1-3, HR, SF, 2 RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Clay Holmes (-.547). 4.1 IP, 23 BF, 6 H, 3 BB, 8 ER, 2 K (L 2-3)
- Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.084). 1-3, DP
- Kid: Michael Busch (-.077). 0-3
Note: Preliminary indication has Holmes as a bottom 10 WPA score of the year, possibly checking in ninth or tenth.
WPA Play of the Game: Pete Crow-Armstrong’s game tying homer with two outs in the fifth. (.142)
Marlins Play of the Game: Heriberto Hernandez’ solo homer in the bottom of the fourth gave the Marlins the lead. (.132)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 143 Winner: Ryan Zeferjahn with 70 of 98 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +26.5
- Alex Bregman +26
- Michael Conforto +14
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Javier Assad +12
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Nico Hoerner -14
- Seiya Suzuki -15
- Dansby Swanson -17
- Caleb Thielbar -17.5
Scoreboard Watching: Brewers won (up 7 on Cubs). Braves won (4.5 up) over the Phillies (0.5 back). Diamondbacks won (5 back). Padres won (5.5 back). Dodgers won (5.5 up). Just under three weeks to go and it’s tight for the No. 1 seed overall in the NL and tight for each of the Wild Card slots. 2.5 games separate those top three teams. 5.5 games separate the next four teams. One team is going to miss landing in a chair when the music stops. If baseball ended today, that would be the Padres.
The Cubs move on to Milwaukee for the final three games of the regular season between the two NL Central rivals. The division is all but wrapped up, but both teams have plenty to play for. Matthew Boyd (8-3, 4.05) starts for the Cubs. Boyd allowed three runs in 5.1 innings against the Brewers last week and will be looking to improve on that.
Robert Gasser (4-5, 4.57) starts for the Brewers. He allowed two earned runs in 4.1 innings before departing a game between these teams last week. He too will be looking to improve. Like so many Brewers, his ERA is almost a full point better at home (4.05 in 8 starts) than on the road (5.01 in 9 games, 8 starts).
This is the best matchup on paper. Let’s go get the first one.
