How will teams balance depth and talent in the NIL era?
Player compensation provides athletes a real choice to delaying their entry into the NFL. Surprisingly there isn’t a lot of multi-year information available, but references were all similar to those in this chart.
It still generally holds true that a player not projected to go in the 1st 3 rounds should finish their eligibility before entering the draft.
Nil provides an incentive for players projected to be drafted in the 1st 2 rounds to try to improve
their draft stock. With NFL draft contracts set for 4 years, a player can make up a loss by delaying entry just by moving up in the draft approx. 1/3 a round.
Program shared revenue has helped balance the player compensation amounts among P4 teams. Most programs are allocating approx. $15 million of the allowed shared revenue to football. For example, in 2024 OSU is reported to have compensated their roster to the tune of about $25 million from NIL. If another program raised $10 million NIL, it is only 40% of OSU’s expenditures.
In 2025 OSU is reported to have compensated players $40 million, about $25 million from NIL plus $15 million from shared revenue. If another program followed suit, they would have their $10 million from NIL plus $15 million from shared revenue for a total of $25 million, closing the gap from 40% to over 60% of what OSU spent, an amount that can be made up on depth and a few players.
Recruiting is still key. Programs usually pay less to retain players than try to attract talent through the portal. Before the modern age I would claim you could take assemble a roster from the best talent in the MAC and challenge for the B1G title. The portal made it easier to bring in transfers, NIL and shared revenue provides a strong incentive.
We see a lot of overlooked HS talent blossom in college, I suspect the result of talented athletes without the resources to attend development camps, playing for schools whose system or overall lack of roster talent doesn’t allow them to stand out, generally poor position coaching at the HS level, and getting little attention at schools not heavily scouted (there’s over 14,000 high school football programs, some players are certain to get overlooked). This seems particularly true for the OL and DL positions.
Enter the Age of NCAAF Moneyball. Over time programs will develop roster strategies to remain competitive; the unpredictability of relying primarily on a favorable conference schedule will become less common.
Programs can adjust how they play, this was key to baseball’s moneyball approach. For example, there are bargains to be had at RB, interior linemen on both offense and defense, and LB. Lower budget teams might find success focusing on these positions, becoming run first, using 2 TE sets and throwing more to the TE, switching to a 3-4 defense using LBs to get a pass rush, rely on a smaller faster DL, etc. (essentially think of what the academies do to remain competitive). In hindsight, Wisconsin shifting away from a run dominated offense was the opposite of what they should have done to keep pace.
Programs could try to make runs every other year or every 3rd year (let the 2010s NW be your goal). Unlike shared revenue, NIL money can be accumulated. Programs could try to be average across their roster, then dig into their NIL reserves to boost spending when they discover they recruited some hidden gems and just need to bring in a few top players.
Relying on the portal for OL and DT could become the norm. These positions typically take longer to develop and success is harder to predict than other positions, so it can be better financially to snipe after they’ve developed for 2 or 3 years on someone else’s dime.
Expect all programs to pay little for depth. Programs are now incentivized to be quicker to cut highly compensated juniors, seniors, and injured players who aren’t expected to start to break their NIL contracts – they will no longer be maintained on the roster for depth and special teams.
Thanks to ProveIt for a great series, and my apologies for not being a more faithful steward of these articles — I’m grateful for the off-season content and hope you’ve all enjoyed it. We’ll have the horseshoe sandwiches coming out just as soon as I’m done with Finals grading. Be well in the meantime. —MNW
