Indiana kicks off Big Ten play with a rare Friday night contest against a Northwestern team that just beat Colorado 41-7. ESPN Analytics still favors the Hoosiers heavily, giving Indiana an 89.5% chance of victory, but it will be the toughest test of the season by far for Curt Cignetti’s group.
The teams did not meet last season, but Cignetti did see the Wildcats in his first year as Indiana’s head coach, toughing out a 41-24 win at Northwestern’s temporary stadium on Lake Michigan. The conditions
should be more favorable for Indiana this time, but this is a much improved Northwestern program coming off a seven-win season and bowl win last year.
Add in some familiar faces, like Northwestern’s Aidan Chiles, and Friday’s matchup has all the makings of an underrated early season Big Ten contest.
Here are three things to watch for this week:
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Aidan Chiles
Aidan Chiles is off to a hot start this season, completing 67.4% of his passes for 11.2 yards per completion and four touchdowns through two games. His quarterback rating of 190.2 is the highest he’s had in his career to this point.
Indiana has seen Chiles in each of the last two seasons, holding him to two touchdowns through the air and two interceptions in the combined matchups. The Hoosiers have kept him out of the end zone as a rusher, but last year he rushed for 48 yards on eight carries.
Having contained him relatively well in the past should be comforting for Bryant Haines and company, but this year’s meeting is almost a month earlier on the calendar than either of the last two. Chiles is an experienced, talented player who can exploit defenses that have yet to fully gel, as we saw last week, so seeing him will be a real challenge for a defense that’s looked unsteady at points in each of Indiana’s three wins so far this year.
The Depth Chart
While the early games gave us a glimpse at who had the edge up and down the depth chart, facing a Big Ten team should give us some concrete answers as to what to expect from Indiana moving forward.
Cornerback A.J. Harris is listed as doubtful, making his absence the last two weeks look like more than a precaution. Cignetti has also commented on the fact that Harris has not been available for practice much since transferring to Indiana, so his role in the future might be limited.
Then there’s the court case surrounding Kellan Wyatt and Stephen Daley, recently declared eligible via a preliminary injunction. The NCAA has, however, filed an emergency motion seeing to stay that injuction within 24 hours. Should they remain eligible, I’m watching for how the staff manages the line.
Of course, this is all subject to change as guys develop and injuries accumulate, but seeing a power conference opponent should tell us who the staff is counting on moving forward this year.
Turnovers
Northwestern has a turnover margin of plus four through two games, something that could challenge an Indiana team that’s been slightly careless with the ball so far. The Hoosiers have yet to throw an interception or lose a fumble, but they have fumbled it four times already, including one last week against a Western Kentucky team that’s had a lot of success knocking the ball loose.
What this really will come down to is discipline. Indiana has been running over opponents literally and figuratively so far, making the momentary lapses in focus that have led to the fumbles inconsequential. Against a more respectable opponent, Indiana will not be able to afford such lapses.
The same goes for the passing game. Opposing defenses haven’t yet intercepted Josh Hoover, but he’s made some decisions that would have given more talented teams a real shot at a turnover. Now he’s facing a team that has the ability to punish him for those decisions.
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