- Location: Colorado Springs, CO (Falcon Stadium)
- Date/Time: Saturday, November 22nd at 5 p.m. MT
- Television: CBS Sports Network
- Radio: KVOR AM 740, Colorado Springs
- Head-to-Head: Air Force leads the all-time series 26-15. The Lobos defeated them last 52-37 in Albuquerque.
We have hit the point in the 2025 Air Force season where we will see the character of this team tested the most. After another competitive loss last week to UConn, the Falcons are 3-7 (2-4 MW) with Bowl
hopes dashed, the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy again eluding them and their star quarterback now shelfed for the season. Now lets be clear, character is the last thing I’ll call into question for any of these young men serving our country through a Military Academy. But their resolve to compete as a team is really what is going to be tested against a very good team on senior night at Falcon Stadium.
It’s not nearly as difficult to get up for these late season game when your in the hunt for a Conference Championship, Bowl bid or even a prized rivalry trophy. Well, for New Mexico, they have everything to play for as they find themselves amid a log jam near the top the Mountain West standings, with Conference Championship aspirations very much alive. What Jason Eck has done at New Mexico is one of the best stories in all of college football. Unless you were keyed in on how Idaho quietly found themselves as one of the premier contenders in the FCS the previous few years, you might not be familiar with just how good of a coach Eck has been. In the immortal words of Kurt Cignetti, “Google me”, this guy wins football games.
Air Force has won nine of their last 10 games on senior night. And many of those wins have come against rivals and very good competition. This Saturday would constitute both.
Keys to an Air Force Victory
PAIN FOR LAYNE
It’s crazy to say this about a unit that’s outside of the top 120 in the country in nearly every meaningful statistical category, but the Air Fore secondary is thriving. Their national placement statistically is more of a reflection of just how bad things were the first half of the season. Historically bad.
However, the secondary has really come on the past four contests, really being the catalyst to their two wins over that span. This is the arc you hope to see when you play an entire group of freshman and sophomores. Leading that group would have to be their freshman and sophomore tandem of Roger Jones and Max Mustell. The two have five interceptions between the two of them, and the defense as a group have faced two high-octane passing games in as many weeks, and really shut them down.
For as outstanding of a season as it has been for New Mexico, one of the areas that appear to be a vulnerability is turnovers. Specifically, interceptions. Jack Layne has thrown nine interceptions on the year, eight of those picks have come in their three losses. In case your wondering, one of those losses was to San Jose State, who picked him off three times. That same San Jose State Spartans team that let their long time defensive coordinator go this week.
New Mexico is 123rd nationally in turnover margin, essentially being -1 per game. This is an area that the Falcons have to exploit. If your wondering, Air Force has equal parts turnovers enforced as they do given away. But they have really struggled to record sacks, despite pressuring opposing quarterbacks. Pressure is the great ally to interceptions, lets see if Zdroik, Grobe and Adams can get after Layne.
BIG RIG BEHIND THE DIESELS
We are running out of hyperbole to describe just how good Liam Szarka has been this year for Air Force. Similar to the Cinderella story of New Mexico as a team, Liam Szarka’s rise as one of the most dynamic dual threat passers in the nation has been equally improbable. Szarka’s play doesn’t get the attention it warrants largely because of the overall performance of Air Force relative to wins and losses. But that doesn’t take away the reality that he was operating the offense at a very high level.
The team is going to need someone else to step up under center now, as Szarka is out after being injured last week. Sound familiar? Unfortunately for Air Force, a rotation of quarterbacks is an all-to-familiar story they’ve had to navigate starting five different players over the past two seasons (Busha, Johnson, Hayes, Szarka, Hodges*). This is assuming Kemper Hodges gets the start on Saturday, as he sits atop the released depth chart, and played in relief of Szarka last week.
In no way am I going to try and marginalize what Liam Szarka did under center for Air Force this year. He should have been the starter week 1, and he should be recognized as an All-Conference player. I stand by those statements. But I am also excited for Kemper Hodges to get his opportunity under center for the Falcons. And directly under center, not as a depth fullback.
If you just listened to last Saturday’s broadcast, they would have you believe that Hodges was a gadget player. A fullback thrown under center. That is not the case. Kemper Hodges was a well recruited 3-Star quarterback recruit out of high school, who Troy Calhoun and staff had add some weight to his already 220 lb frame before transitioning to fullback in a very crowded room a few years back. Now Hodges gets the opportunity to operate the offense with the ball in his hand every play.
In his limited time last week, he looked very comfortable throwing the ball and presents a different challenge for defenders in the running game. He isn’t going to be able to slash upfield and grind between small seams like Szarka was so good at. He is however, more than capable of moving a pile when he gets behind his pads. What will be really interesting is seeing how he is able to make his reads in the option and distribute the ball. He was primarily used as a QB lead runner, but to make this offense him, he’ll need to be that point guard like Szarka was. I am curious to see how Troy Calhoun and Mike Thiessen call the offense with him under center. Will we continue seeing a lot of pistol heavy motion? Or will this become more of a downhill attack?
AVOID BOISE 2.0
One of the things that concerns me most about this game against New Mexico is how multiple their rushing attack is. If you recall when we previewed Boise State, the concern over a three-headed monster that was their running game, and it absolutely shredded the Falcons. While the secondary has really come on of late, the defense has shown to be susceptible to the run, surrendering big plays on the ground throughout the season.
Well, New Mexico similarly has three running backs that pose a real threat. Damon Bankston, DJ McKinney and Scottre Humphrey have all proven very effective runners, each rushing for 349+ yards on the year at 4+ yards per carry. Bankston in particular is a dynamic with the ball in his hands. The Lobo back has 339 receiving yards and 334 kick return yards (averaging 30 yards per return) to go along with his 461 rushing yards. He is the definition of a playmaker.
This is a near mirror of what Air Force faced earlier this year in Dylan Riley, Sire Gaines and Malik Sherrod. The Falcon defense has got to apply lessons learned from that experience, and even as recent as last week versus Cam Edwards and UConn. It’s not that often that Air Force faces a team that offers a division of labor between their ball carriers, similar to themselves. But this is one of those weeks, and if they aren’t prepared it could be a very long night.
CONCLUSION
If nothing else, Air Force should have everyone on notice that they will entertain with a close and competitive game this year. The results haven’t been what they had hoped for, obviously, but this is a team that has been in a position to win all but one game this year.
Playing without Liam Szarka is going to be a major adjustment. His ability in the passing game and to go off-script to create plays is something that we’ve really not seen from a Falcon QB in some time. One of the things that will be important is to keep feeding Owen Allen and Dylan Carson the ball. Allen is really thriving now in this offense, and short of wearing him out, I wouldn’t argue if they called the give to him every play. But there are a compliment of players surrounding Hodges and the offense, and they will do well to get them involved to keep New Mexico off balance.
The Lobos have done a great job at making plays behind the line of scrimmage, which is a near death sentence for drives. As part of that, New Mexico also has one of the stiffest run defenses in the country, and are second in the Mountain West. Air Force presents the top rushing attack in the Conference, making for a really good strength on strength matchup. The diesels will need to be at their best and keep the offense humming.
If the Falcons can sustain drives, turnover the Lobos and avoid a bludgeoning on the ground like happened at Boise, I can see them winning this game. I’m more optimistic about the offense than I should be in this match-up, and you can chalk that up to a few years of anticipating seeing Hodges under center. Unfortunately for Air Force, coach Eck has his team running the ball effectively, and playing good defense, consistently. This is a recipe for winning football, and it’s one that the Lobos have done a good job of all year long.
Another close one leaves Air Force coming up just short.
New Mexico 24- Air Force 17
