The women’s soccer NCAA Tournament field was released today and Florida State (10-2-4, 6-2-2 ACC) was awarded a 3-seed by the tournament committee. The Seminoles will meet SoCon champions Samford (13-2-5,
7-0-2 SoCon) on Friday at 5 p.m. in the first round in Tallahassee.
Let’s discuss this result in more detail.
These are real questions posed by real people in the sense that they are actual questions (they end in a question mark) and I am a real person (I have written all of the questions).
Let’s cut to the chase: Did the committee get this seeding right?
My short answer is I don’t think so but it is not the worst error that I have ever seen.
As discussed above FSU is 10-2-4. Those two losses came to Stanford and Notre Dame which are the top two overall seeds in this tournament. The Noles have draws with Virginia (No. 1 seed), Kansas (No. 3 seed) and Cal and NC State both of whom missed the tournament. The Seminoles also boast wins over the following tournament teams: Louisville (6th), North Carolina (unseeded), Virginia (1st) and Wake Forest (7th). That’s a pretty good resume but we need to compare it to others to really judge whether the Noles deserved a 2-seed.
The 2-seeds are TCU, Michigan State, Duke and Georgetown.
Here is the Tale of the Tape of those teams:
Florida State’s case is simple. The Noles have no bad losses. They have two losses and both of them are to No. 1 seeds. They also have a far better win (at Virginia, another No. 1 seed) than any of the 2-seeds. The knock on FSU is the NC State game. None of the 2-seeds have a loss or a draw that bad.
However, FSU only needs to be better than one of those No. 2 seeds. Keeping that in mind let’s examine Georgetown. The Hoyas have a lower RPI, Massey rating and strength of schedule than the Seminoles. The schedule is not even close. As shown above, Georgetown’s best win is Xavier (who they also have a loss against). In addition to the win over UVA, the Noles boast wins over North Carolina (25RPI, 8M) and Louisville (15RPI, 11M). Either of those wins can be argued are better than the Hoyas’ best win. Based on the resumes it’s hard to see how Georgetown was seeded higher than Florida State.
How does the committee decide seeding anyway?
I was not in the meeting room but they usually follow this type of procedure. They use resumes to determine who should get in among the bubble teams. Once they have decided who should be in the tournament they rank all the teams 1-64. This is the famous “S-Curve” you may be familiar with from prior references. They use the S-Curve to determine seeding.
It is possible that the Committee has watched FSU and Georgetown play and determined that the Hoyas were the better side. Therefore, they were awarded the higher seed. The eye-test can matter. If that is the case then it is tough to argue since everyone can have an opinion. For the record, I would disagree with that opinion (and so do the metrics) but I wasn’t in the room and don’t have a vote.
I should also point out that non-seeded teams are not protected and are placed in the draw largely according to geography. In other words, non-seeded teams are not placed in the draw based on how good they are, they are placed according to how close they are to the seeded team that they would be playing. This is why FSU has drawn Samford (Birmingham, Ala.) twice in a row. They are relatively close to Tallahassee.
How important is it that FSU missed out on the 2-seed?
It’s a big deal. We normally discuss Florida State getting a No. 1 seed vs a No. 2 seed. That is an important difference because that determines who hosts the Elite Eight game. However, the difference between the No. 3 seed and the No. 2 seed is even greater. That difference determines who hosts the round of 32 game and the Sweet 16 game. Georgetown is the No. 2 seed in FSU’s section of the bracket. Therefore for FSU to host a game past the first round the Hoyas would have to get upset by Sacred Heart (11-8-2) in the first round. This is soccer so anything is possible but that is obviously not likely.
Okay, whether we agree or not FSU is a 3-seed and will face Samford. How good is Samford?
The Bulldogs (47RPI, 97M) aren’t bad. You may remember that Florida State pasted them in the first round last year 8-0. This year’s Bulldog team is better than last year. They beat Ole Miss in a preseason game and drew with Auburn in a regular season game. FSU will still be the heavy favorite but I don’t expect anywhere near an 8-0 score this year.
How do you expect the Seminoles will do overall in the tournament?
Florida State has enough talent to win the whole thing. The Noles just have to bring their A game from here on out to get that fifth star. Now that they have the 3-seed we know that it won’t be easy. Barring upsets FSU will have to do it the hard way on the road but the material is there to make a long run in this tournament. We will see if the Seminoles can seize the opportunity.
As always the comments are yours.
