Hey, good news! Missouri is 2-0 and looking a lot better than I thought they would! The questions I had about Beau Pribula have been mostly answered, the new skill position players are excellent, and while the offensive line has struggled it hasn’t held back the effectiveness of the unit (yet). Sure, the defense isn’t pitching consecutive shut outs but, overall, Mizzou is looking great!
Bad news: so
is every other SEC team on the Tigers’ schedule. And, with that in mind, we now prepare for one of the few “easy” games left on the schedule, a visit from the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns.
Here’s my preview from earlier this year. The Cajuns under Billy Napier were competent, efficient, and mean…something that has been absent from both Napier and Louisiana over the past few years. While last year’s Louisiana squad won the Sun Belt West division, they closed out the season on a whimper of a lopsided loss streak. In addition, this year’s group became one of the only Cajuns I know who struggle with Rice (that’s a cajun food joke but they also lost to the private school in Houston) and lost their 5-star transfer quarterback for the season in the first game.
So they’re not the most impressive group that will traipse across the tiger head in Columbia but it’s still a real game that counts for the record books and Missouri needs to win it. Here’s the break down.
When Missouri Has The Ball
Don’t look now but your Tiger offense ranks 29th in the nation in rushing SP+ and 15th in passing SP+. Yes, it’s been two games. Yes, it’s still impressive. There’s a few avenues Missouri could take against this Cajun defense but here’s how I see it:
Run The Dang Ball
The Cajuns have played a rebuilding Rice with a new offensive system and FCS opponent McNeese; they rank 49th against the pass and 98th against the run. Given what Missouri likes to do, and the perceived weakness of this defensive unit, I think this is an easy assessment. I’ll set the bar at a 46% rushing success rate.
Matriculate!
For all of its woes, the Cajun defense is really good at one thing: limiting explosive plays. Is it because opponents don’t need to hit for big gains? I don’t know! But I do know they currently rank 9th against explosive plays and I’m not super interested in using this game to prove that wrong. Throw easy passes to Coleman and Johnson and Norfleet, let Hardy and Roberts feast, and work in some new offensive linemen (and backup runnings backs!) to limit risk. I’d expect an overall success rate of 48% on the day.
Finish Your Dang Drives
I have harped on this aspect for YEARS as Eli Drinkwitz’s offenses have continually disappointed me, settling for field goals and 4ish points per scoring opportunity or fewer.
But not this year.
Thanks to a veteran kicker who is football dead and an offense that is surprisingly excellent, Mizzou has been aggressive and finished drives with touchdowns, currently sitting at an incredible 6.07 points per scoring opportunity, which is TENTH in the nation!
I never thought I’d see the day!
And while that WILL go down as the season progresses, I’m good with backing off of that a bit. Let’s let lil’ Bobby Meyer kick some deeper field goals to see how he does, especially since Louisiana’s other strength is a decently robust scoring defense, currently allowed 3.4 points per opportunity. If Mizzou finishes drives with points and Meyer can get some live reps I’ll feel really good. Let’s shot for at least 5 points per scoring opportunity.
When Louisiana Has The Ball
When kansas came to town the brought with them the 11th-best offense in SP+, one that was good at just about everything and excellent at running the ball and staying efficient.
That will not be the case with Louisiana.
Missouri now gets the luxury of playing against one of the 40 worst offenses in the country that is now helmed by a freshman quarterback.
Again, the game plan should be fairly straight forward.
Eliminate The Run
Head coach Michael Desormeaux was Billy Napier’s offensive coordinator in the latter’s final year in Lafayette and the former has kept a lot of that offensive identity that Napier found success with. Specifically, recruit nasty offensive linemen and burly running backs and pummel Sun Belt defenses into the ground. It worked well last year but not so much this year as the Cajuns rank a good-not-great 40th in running the ball. But that’s lightyears better than their 131st-ranking in passing! Mizzou should aim to get keep the rushing success rate under 41% for the game.
Attack the Left Side of the Line
I could wax poetic about their 113th-ranking in points per scoring opportunity or how the rank 86th in expected turnovers. But I think this is a much more interesting thing for the Missouri defense to target. Louisiana’s starting left tackle is currently allowing a 12.5% pressure rate over two games. For comparison: you know how we’ve been wringing our hands about Cayden Green’s performance at left tackle? Yeah. He’s allowing a 3% pressure rate.
In addition to left tackle Williams, his left guard buddy combined to have a 7.4% blown run block rate which…well…it’s really hard to be that bad over that many snaps.
But that issue is true across the entire line, which currently ranks 96th in pressures allowed over two games (one of which was against an FCS opponent). And oh, by the way, the offensive line also ranks 93rd in penalties per game.
Missouri’s defensive line should feast here, that’s the main takeaway. I’d expect at least a 20% havoc rate from the line on their own.
Conclusion
Louisiana is going to want to win and they’re going to actively try to stop Missouri from winning, let’s make that clear. But the Tigers outclass them in every position possibly and are playing at home. If Drinkwitz and friends can bury this team early then you can experiment with o-line combinations and let some backups get some reps.
Or, just win. That’s good, too.
