MVP Awards
For most of the season, I’ve been talking up Yankees Right Fielder Aaron Judge and Chicago Cub Centerfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong as the frontrunners for MVP in the American League and National League respectively. For most of the season the two have lead in WAR so it’s only fair that they’d be considered the frontrunners for most of the season. Aaron Judge still leads all of MLB with 6.9 bWAR, but is tied with Cal Raleigh for 7.3 fWAR. Raleigh has 5.9 bWAR, and that massive 1.4 WAR difference
is a result of Baseball Reference WAR not taking into account catchers framing statistics. Raleigh has set the record for most HRs from a catcher with 50 and counting, so I think its safe to assume he’s going to get the award with that. The real loser in all of this is Bobby Witt Jr, who is putting in another fantastic season, but is getting overshadowed not only by Judge once again this season, but now Raleigh as well. My predicted AL MVP winner is Cal Raliegh.
Over in the National League, Pete Crow-Armstrong still leads the NL with 6.5 bWAR, but a lot of that value is derived from his league leading 2.5 dWAR, and his fWAR is a full WAR lower. His .256/.295/.510 triple slash looks pretty ugly, even if that does work out to a 129 OPS+ and 121 wRC+. He does at least have the benefit of likely having a 30/30 season at the end of the year. He’s currently sitting at 28 HRS and 31SB, on top of a league leading 34 doubles, which does help his case a little. While I still think PCA will get some votes, I doubt he takes the award home this year. Meanwhile, Shohei Ohtani continues to do Ohtani things, and leads the NL in fWAR with 5.9 vs and is sixth in MLB with 5.6 bWAR. Ohtani is currently hitting .279/.389/.615 with 45 HRs and 17 SB, which amounts to a 169 wRC+ and a 175 OPS+. His pitching contributions are negligible so far this season, but they aren’t nothing in this writer’s opinion. Trea Turner is tied with Ohtani with 5.9 fWAR, but has only 4.5 bWAR. Turner is quietly having a good season with a .299/.353/.451 triple slash and a 123 wRC+ and 118 OPS+. Finally there’s Geraldo Perdomo, but Ill let Jack Sommers summarize his case for you. The only thing I’d add to what Jack said is at the very least Perdomo is having the best season ever by a Diamondbacks shortstop. My predicted winner for the NL MVP is Shohei Ohtani.
Cy Young Award
This is going to be a short paragraph, since not much has changed since I last touched on the subject a couple weeks ago. It is becoming increasingly likely that we’ll see Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal repeat as the NL and AL Cy Young awards winners. I’d be absolutely shocked if anyone else gets the award. ‘Nuff said.
Rookie of the Year Award
Since debuting on April 23rd of this year Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz has been not only one of the best hitting rookies, but one of the best hitters in MLB period. Kurtz is hitting .307/.398/.635 with a 180 OPS+ and 178 wRC+. His 4.1fWAR and 4.6 bWAR are significantly higher than any other rookies in the league, so he’s pretty much a shoein at this points. If Kurtz had debuted a few weeks earlier I’d likely be discussing him in the MVP section, that is just how good he has been. I could see Boston Red Sox catcher Carlos Narvaez and OFer Roman Anthony, as well as Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Noah Cameron getting some votes, but really this is Kurtz award to lose. It would be hilarious to see the absolute sh*tstorm in NY Media that would happen if Carlos Narvaez won the award, considering he was acquired by the Red Sox from the Yankees over the offseason. If it wasn’t obvious, Kurtz is my prediction for AL Rookie of the Year, and I do expect it to be alm0st unanimous.
The NL’s crop of rookies are a mixed bag compared to the AL. The award could easily go to Braves Catcher Drake Balwin, Milwaukee Thirdbaseman Isaac Collins, or even the Cubs Thirdbaseman Matt Shaw. Drake Baldwin has a fantastic bat (.279/.344/.458 124 OPS+) but calling his defense mediocre is actually being a little too polite. Isaac Collins actually has a decent glove to match his above average bat (.270/.368/.421, 122 OPS+). After a very mediocre start to his MLB career, Matt Shaw has gotten hot and actually raised his bWAR above both Collins and Baldwin, to point he leads all NL rookies. Will Shaw win it though with an an anemic looking 230/.297/.408 batting line? Is a 103 OPS+ good enough for him to take home the hardware? If the BBWAA writers only care about WAR, that’s certainly a possibility, but I’d say that is still unlikely unless he goes on a tear for the remainder of the season while Baldwin and Collins slump. Right now, I’m going to give the award to Collins, but I do not expect a unanimous NL Rookie Of the Tear
