Tanking. It’s a term thrown around by sports fans whenever their favorite team is expecting to be… less than good. According to Wikipedia, “tanking in sports refers to the practice of intentionally fielding non-competitive teams to take advantage of league rules that benefit losing teams.” There have been a few teams across the sports world accused of tanking in the past few years, including our very own Miami Dolphins. In 2019, the Dolphins were accused of tanking for a certain Alabama quarterback
prospect that almost everyone wanted. Yes folks, Tua Tagovailoa was the apple of the eye for most fans. I recall seeing tweets whining, crying, and lamenting the signing of Ryan Fitzpatrick as he would be JUST good enough to prevent the Dolphins from losing enough to draft their beloved Tua.
Maybe that was the case then, but I’m here to tell you that the 2026 Miami Dolphins are absolutely, positively, without-a-doubt, 100% NOT TANKING! I have several good reasons that you should listen to that will show you exactly why they are not tanking. Now… I’m not saying this team will be GOOD. I do in fact believe this team will not have a good record when the season is over. But they are not intentionally losing games for some benefit. Let’s look at the reasons why they are not losing on purpose and I guarantee you that by the time you finish reading this article, you’ll see things my way. Or you should.
REASON 1: HOW TO TANK
The most basic premise to begin a tank is to offload talent that will prevent you from losing. Generally, that means getting rid of good players by trading them for draft picks or cutting them outright. If the 2026 Dolphins were tanking, they would have offloaded a bunch of talent, right? Let’s look at who they moved on from this season. First and foremost is Tyreek Hill. I’m putting him first because he was the most talented player on the Dolphins roster from the last decade, maybe two, that was cut this offseason. Hill also missed most of the 2025 season with a devastating leg injury and still has not signed with anyone. It is very possible that he never plays again.
The next player is the aforementioned Tagovailoa. As much as we all wanted to #BlameTannehill, no player that I can recall has been as divisive as Tua. If I wanted to create a post that gets tons of clicks and comments, I’d simply write something about Tua. Fans would come out the woodworks to offer their two cents. Regardless of your opinion of him, there is one thing I would say that EVERYONE would agree on: Tua was not taking the 2026 Dolphins to the Super Bowl. Heck… we’re not even sure he’ll start in Atlanta.
Who else? Chubb? Fitzpatrick? Waddle? Chubb is a good edge rusher that was overpaid as an elite one. Fitzpatrick is an older player at a lower value position. Jaylen Waddle is the ONLY player the Dolphins moved on from this offseason that would have made a significant impact on the game. Fans were divided on him as well, with some thinking he was good enough to be a #1 WR and others thinking he was overpaid. But everyone must look at the trade haul for Waddle and compare it to what Philly got for AJ Brown. Jon-Eric Sullivan traded Waddle and pick 111 for picks 30, 94, and 130. Brown is an older player, but far more established and decorated than Waddle. Philly got a 2027 5th rounder and a 2028 first rounder. That’s a win for the Dolphins, especially when the 94th pick was used on a wide receiver.
Regardless of what you think about these players, we can all agree that keeping them wouldn’t make the team competitive in 2026. Better maybe, but not competitive in the way we want them to be. And finding replacements was never going to be easy. They could have added some better pieces in free agency if they had had the cap space. But they were not going to add players that would put them over the top. Miami has won free agency before to no avail… remember? Franchise altering players rarely hit free agency. All the personnel shuffling maybe alters win projections by a few games. But that leads to reason 2.
REASON 2: TALENT RETENTION AND ACQUISITION
If a team wants to tank, then they not only have to dump talent, but they cannot retain or replace it. Key word: RETAIN. At least not adequately. If you haven’t by now, you need to go subscribe to my Substack page Aqua And Orange Review. Yes, I’m calling BOTH games! In a recent article, I compared the talent of the 2019 Dolphins – the one accused of tanking – and the current roster. I’ll let you read it (click the link) for yourself, but the 2026 Dolphins are doing a horrible job of talent management if they are trying to lose. The 2019 Dolphins dumped players and replaced them with nothing. The best player from previous rosters that they kept was DeVante Parker. The 2026 Dolphins extended Achane, Brooks, and Brewer instead of shipping them off for picks. Achane would have gotten the biggest haul of the group in a trade, but he’s also the youngest. But, but, but… he won’t be good when the Dolphins are ready to compete. You sure about that? Clearly the people in charge don’t feel that way. Brooks and Brewer are older vets that would have gotten something in a trade, but the Dolphins kept them anyway. That would be a self-defeating move if they wanted to lose on purpose. Achane, Brooks, Brewer, and their free agent quarterback will help them win games.
REASON 3: QUARTERBACK
Football is a fascinating sport. It’s a chess match between 11 offensive players and 11 defensive players that require all 11 of either side to be on the same page. Yet despite being possibly the most team-oriented sport, no position influences the overall outcome in any sport than the quarterback. If a football team is trying to lose or put themselves in a position to be bad enough to lose, then the easiest way to have a bad quarterback. The 2019 Dolphins traded for Josh Rosen and signed Ryan Fitzpatrick. Rosen was a flop from day one and Fitz was a bridge quarterback at best. The 2026 Dolphins didn’t have much cap room to spend, but they went out and spent what they could to sign Malik Willis to be the franchise quarterback. Well… that’s the hope. He gets the first shot at it. Maybe he succeeds and maybe he doesn’t. But a GM doesn’t sign a player like that if the goal is to lose. If Willis plays the way we all hope he plays, the Dolphins will not be the worst team in the league and they will win more games than most expect. They certainly wouldn’t give him the contract they did if the goal was to be bad.
REASON 4: YOUNG MEANS INEXPERIENCED, NOT NECESSARILY BAD
The 2026 Dolphins made 13 draft selections in the 2026 draft. They had all their draft capital up front. The 2019 Dolphins had only 6 picks but acquired several picks for the 2020 draft and beyond. That’s a major difference. If the goal was to lose for a better draft pick, then it would be preferable to have as many draft picks as possible AFTER THE FACT. Particularly first round picks just in case they win enough to be outside the range for 1st overall. Instead, the Dolphins used all their draft capital in 2026 to fill a variety of positions. It’s not just the rookies either. Since the team didn’t have the cap space to get veterans to fill spots, they will be heavily reliant on rookies and second year players. They have 8 current starters that are rookies or second year players. That number could jump to 11 once Chris Bell, Trey Moore, and Kenneth Grant are back in the mix. That’s half of the starting lineup. Of course, this means a learning curve and mistakes along the way. It will be rough starting out. But the goal will be to see improvement and hopefully a feisty squad with experience under their belts by the end of the season. That may not translate directly to wins, but it certainly isn’t the formula for losing.
This also cannot account for players being good from jump. We’ve seen flashes from rookies before, such as Achane, who proved he was a starting caliber player immediately. We’ve seen similar flashes from players at this camp. Caleb Douglas is penciled in as a starting receiver. Chris Johnson is a starting corner and looked good doing so. Jacob Rodriguez was good enough for the Dolphins to feel comfortable moving on from Tyrel Dodson. Kadyn Proctor has been a factor at left guard. These aren’t just players starting because the team needs starters. These players have EARNED that role by being… dare I say… good.
REASON 5: THE DRAFT
Obviously, the tank talk is usually about drafting a franchise quarterback. It was back in 2019 and still is in 2026. Tua was the name back then and the new name is Texas QB Arch Manning. But I’m going to be honest: Manning is more of a name at this point than a “generational” franchise quarterback prospect. In the comment section recently, I mentioned that as sophomore QBs, both Tua and Trevor Lawrence were statistically better than Manning. Both were more accomplished. Prior to the 2019 college season, Tua was THE top draft prospect, with maybe edge rusher Chase Young giving him a run for the title. Tua was far and away the top quarterback. No one knew who Joe Burrow was. QB2 was Jordan Love with Justin Herbert a distant 3rd. In 2020, it was Trevor Lawrence and there was no close second. For the 2027 class, some sites have Manning as the top prospect. Others have him as the 2nd or 3rd best QUARTERBACK prospect. Not 2nd or 3rd overall… 2nd or 3rd QB in the class. The 2026 season needs to be played, but unlike in the recent past, the clear-cut favorite guy that everyone wants to lose for doesn’t exist, at least at the quarterback position. If the goal is Jeremiah Smith… well that’s a different discussion for a different day.
Having said all of that, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention I had the draft for this article typed up last week before the opening weekend of college football. Having watched some games and highlights, it is clear there are several good quarterback prospects that will be available in the first round and perhaps even the second round of the 2027 draft. There are some quarterbacks that will elevate themselves into a high draft position in 2028. As fans, let us not get hyper-focused on one player. If the Dolphins still need a QB after this season, there is very likely one that will be available when they are on the clock.
REASON 6: MONEY, MONEY, MONEY, MONEY…. MOOONNNEEEYY
We finally get to the singular point of why the front office made the moves it made. They can talk about culture and toughness and all that jazz. The real reason the Dolphins let all those veterans walk was they didn’t want to pay them any more money. That’s it. Tyreek, Chubb, Tua… no mas dinero. I’m not going to delve too greedily or too deep into the cash and cap financial stuff. My boy Kyle Crabbs is the go-to source for that. The Cliffs Notes version I’m going to give you is: cash is what actually gets paid to the player and cap is the accounting aspect.
For example, let’s say The Phinsider gives me a contract for 5 years, $10M to make extraordinary content. After negotiations, they give me $5M as a signing bonus that’s fully guaranteed and an annual salary of $1M that is not. Phinsider has rules that allow them to defer that signing bonus over the life of the contract. So for year 1, they pay me $6M in cold hard cash – all of the bonus and a year of salary – but they only have to put down $2M for accounting. Every subsequent year, they will only pay $1M, but will have $2M on the books for each year. Let’s say by the start of year three, they are like, “dude you suck! Hit the bricks!”. Thus far, they have paid me $7M in cash but have only accounted for $4M – $2M for each of the 1st two years. They terminate the contract and the accounting comes due. Phinsider doesn’t have to pay me the $3M left on the contract in salary but must account for $3M that was the deferred bonus. From an accounting perspective, they broke even. From a payroll perspective, they save $3M. This is a poorly constructed, but reasonable explanation of how NFL contracts work.
But all y’all already knew that. For 2026, Sullivan and money man Brandon Shore wanted to clear the payroll. That came at the expense of the bookkeeping. The Dolphins have a record dead cap charge of $181,597,968 per over the cap. Some of that are cuts from camp like Dodson and Salyer. Others were done way back in March like Hill. However, Tua was the only player of any players cut with significant guaranteed cash still owed. They paid him to go away. Everyone else… the staff and front office deemed them unworthy of big money, and didn’t want to cut them any more checks. It’s that simple.
As for the payroll, the Dolphins are 32nd out of 32 teams in cash spent in 2026. They are at $242,814,004, nearly $100M less than the league average ($323,886,017). That’s all well and good, but the accounting part means the Dolphins can’t really spend the cash they COULD spend. That changes in 2027. Currently, Miami is once again 32nd out of 32 teams in cash spending (projected) in 2027 at $114,334,445. This is after the three big extensions and the deal to Willis. The difference is that the accounting is now mostly clear. Miami is set to have $100M or more in cap space for 2027.
Sullivan has stated all offseason that he wants to “pay as he goes”. The only way to do that is to have the cap space AND the cash to do so. Miami can spend $100M in cash next season and they’ll still be below league average (projected). This gives them an advantage in free agency. Players don’t care abnut the cap. They want the money-in-hand. Miami has that. I don’t expect Sully to make it rain in FA, but he can pretty much sigh anyone he wants and pay them whatever. But to do that, they have to dump payroll NOW.
I SAID WHAT I SAID
There you have it. The Dolphins needed to clear the financial aspect of the organization, and it came at the expense of a deeper, more veteran roster. But the Dolphins are not actively trying to lose games for draft position. In fact, I believe the Dolphins are trying to win ALL the games. The talent needed to do so is lacking, but I’d argue that’s mostly due to inexperience. I’ve said this team will be exciting to watch and I believe it wholeheartedly. They might even sneak up on people and win too.
