The Kansas City Chiefs got back on track last week with a convincing 35-12 victory over theNew York Jets. Now, they will try to build on that performance when they travel to face the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday afternoon.
Kansas City enters the matchup at 6-2, while Atlanta has fallen to 3-6 after consecutive losses. However, the Falcons remain within striking distance in the NFC South and possess one of the league’s most dangerous offensive players in running back Bijan Robinson.
Here are three Kingdom
Keys to a Chiefs victory.
Offensive key: Make Atlanta respect the wide receivers
Atlanta’s defense has struggled to stop the run recently, allowing a league-high 190 rushing yards per game over its last three contests. That makes Kenneth Walker III an obvious focal point for Kansas City after he produced 143 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns against the Jets.
It also means the Falcons should enter the game determined to make someone other than Walker beat them.
The Chiefs’ wide receivers must provide that answer.
During Kansas City’s 20-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, its wide receivers combined for only six receptions and 39 yards. The Seahawks crowded the line of scrimmage, slowed Walker and trusted their defensive backs to win their individual matchups.
The production improved against the Denver Broncos with Rashee Rice’s return; the group combined for 13 receptions, 90 yards, and one touchdown. Last week against New York, Rice, Xavier Worthy and Jalen Royals combined for 13 catches and 115 yards. It was another step forward, but much of the production came after the catch rather than from consistently winning downfield.
That is where Kansas City’s newest addition could help. The Chiefs acquired wide receiver Josh Downs from the Indianapolis Colts before the trade deadline. Downs arrives as a target who can create separation and find openings in zone coverage.
Downs should not be expected to master the entire offense in a few days, but the Chiefs can give him a defined package of plays. More importantly, Rice, Worthy and the rest of the receiving corps must win when Atlanta commits extra defenders to the run.
The goal should be at least 150 combined receiving yards from Kansas City’s wide receivers in a performance that should be able to take advantage of the attention on Walker.
Defensive key: Contain Bijan Robinson and force third-and-long
There is no mystery surrounding Atlanta’s offensive plan: get the football in Robinson’s hands.
Robinson has rushed for a league-leading 880 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 5.2 yards per carry. He has also caught 31 passes for 250 yards, giving him 1,130 yards from scrimmage through nine games. Last week against the Cincinnati Bengals, he produced 147 scrimmage yards on 25 touches.
With backup Brian Robinson Jr. on the Reserve/Injured list, the Falcons could lean even more on Bijan Robinson. He is not only their primary runner but also a dangerous receiving option who can create mismatches against linebackers.
Kansas City’s defense is equipped for the challenge. The Chiefs have allowed 780 rushing yards through eight games — 97.5 yards per contest — and only 3.6 yards per carry. They have also surrendered just two runs of 20 or more yards.
The defensive line must control the line of scrimmage without creating cutback lanes, while the linebackers must tackle cleanly in space. Robinson is too talented to expect Kansas City to eliminate him entirely, but the Chiefs cannot allow him to consistently create manageable third downs.
Atlanta has converted only 37 of its 106 third-down opportunities, a 34.9% rate. If Kansas City can limit Robinson on early downs and force Michael Penix Jr. into third-and-long, Steve Spagnuolo can turn loose the pass rush that recorded five sacks against the Jets.
Keeping Robinson below 100 yards from scrimmage would put the Falcons’ offense in an uncomfortable position and force Penix to carry the game.
X-factor: Harrison Butker must make his kicks
This week’s X-factor is simple: Harrison Butker must deliver.
Butker has converted only 12 of his 19 field-goal attempts this season, a career-low rate of 63.2%. He is just 2-for-8 from at least 50 yards and has missed a field goal in four consecutive games. Over that four-game stretch, he has made only five of his 10 attempts.
The Chiefs overcame his missed 51-yard attempt against the Jets because they controlled the second half. They cannot assume they will have the same margin for error on the road against Atlanta.
Head coach Andy Reid has made it clear that Butker remains Kansas City’s kicker. Special teams coordinator Dave Toub has also expressed confidence in the veteran, saying the goal is to get one perfect game and begin building a streak from there.
That streak needs to begin Sunday.
Kansas City does not need Butker to rescue the offense with repeated attempts from beyond 50 yards. It does need him to convert the manageable opportunities he receives. In a road game that could remain close into the fourth quarter, leaving three or four points on the field could change the outcome.
The bottom line
The Chiefs should be able to run the football against an Atlanta defense that has struggled in recent weeks, but the Falcons will likely load the box and force Kansas City’s wide receivers to prove they can win. Rice, Worthy and the newly acquired Downs must make Atlanta pay for committing extra defenders to Walker.
Defensively, Kansas City must contain Robinson on early downs and force Penix to operate in obvious passing situations. On special teams, Butker needs a clean performance that begins rebuilding his confidence.
If the Chiefs accomplish those three things, they should leave Atlanta with their second consecutive victory and remain firmly in the AFC West race
