While the Los Angeles Rams emerged from Saturday’s wild card classic as the victor, the Carolina Panthers gave them everything they could handle. Until they didn’t.
Despite playing solid defense for a majority
of the second half to allow the Panthers offense an opportunity to take the lead multiple times, the moment eventually became too big. When it all came down to one final stop to send the 10.5 point underdogs through to the next round, MVP candidate Matthew Stafford diced the defense apart – walking the Rams offense down the field with no resistance.
For the final game review of the 2025 NFL season, let’s take a look back at the defensive decisions made throughout the contest to make sense of how the unit went from stifling to struggling so quickly.
(All of the following stats in this article come directly from SumerSports’ SumerLive tracking application )
Stafford’s hot start
To make sense of the final drive, I first want to take you back to Stafford’s first 4 drives of the game. The Rams quarterback started the game on a tear, going 8 for 9 for 114 yards and a touchdown. Stafford’s only incompletion was his last of the sample, meaning he started the game a perfect 8 for 8.
A casual football fan would take in these statistics and tell you that whatever the Panthers defense were attempting to accomplish within their initial game plan was not working. This casual football fan would be correct.
The Panthers defense came out on these first 4 drives determined to play Cover 3. Of those first 9 passing attempts, 6 attempts came against the Panthers sitting in Cover 3. All of which were completed for 94 yards and a touchdown.
Coming into the match-up, Stafford led the NFL in passing yards versus Cover 3 and zone coverage overall. The Panthers opening gameplan seemingly played directly into Stafford and the Rams offense’s biggest strength and they paid for it by hastily falling into a 14-0 deficit.
Defensive adjustments
After the Rams first 4 drives, the Panthers adjusted their approach to a significant degree of success. On the Ram’s next 7 drives they scored 10 points. The Rams saw a wide variety of coverages on 22 pass attempts during this 7 possession sample, including: Cover 0, Cover 1-Man, Cover 2, Cover 4, Cover 6 – and yes, Cover 3.
All 3 pass attempts that Rams had against Cover 3 during this period fell incomplete. One was a great Nic Scourton pass defensed on an attempted screen pass. The other two attempts were Stafford misses – including a possible touchdown to Davatae Adams shown below.
Horn’s injury
Next came the middle of the 4th quarter and the Rams started their 12th possession of the game leading 27-24. The Panthers desperately needed a stop. They got it, but it came at a heavy cost. This Ram’s possession only lasted five plays, the last of which would be the blocked punt to give the Panthers the ball at the Rams 30 yard line.
Unfortunately, the second play of the Rams drive may have been the one that won them the game. 2nd and 6, the Rams completed a 16 yard pass and Jaycee Horn remained on the ground after taking a hit from his own teammate. Horn entered the concussion protocol and would not see the field again the rest of the game. Care to guess what coverage the Panthers were in on this play? That’s right, Cover 3.
Thankfully, the Rams were penalized the next play which allowed the Panthers to force the aforementioned blocked punt leading to the Panthers final touchdown. The Rams had one more drive in the game. One last possession for all the marbles.
Stafford would go 6 for 7 for 71 and a touchdown, including 5 completions on 5 attempts for 60 yards against Cover 3.
Conclusion
Overall, the Rams had a 10.36 expected points average (EPA) versus Cover 3. The next best EPA vs concept they had was 0.28 against Cover 4.
The opening game plan created by the Panthers defensive coaching staff clearly did not accomplish what they had hoped. Given the strength of the Rams offense versus Cover 3, this is not shocking. Credit for pivoting away from it until Horn’s injury.
Horn’s concussion was clearly the turning point in the final moments as the coaching staff felt compelled to return to their “bread and butter” Cover 3 zone coverage. In fairness, there were other opportunities missed on this drive that weren’t the total fault of the defensive play call.
Pass rushers failed to win any 1 on 1 attempts. A’Shawn Robinson tipped a ball that still was caught. The game winning touchdown on Tre’Von Moehrig was perfect coverage… unfortunately Colby Parkinson’s 6’7 frame and Stafford elite accuracy will beat perfect coverage every time – despite only having a 27% chance of being completed.
Oh, what could have been.
