How will the 2026 season play out? Well, nobody really knows.
That, of course, isn’t stopping people from trying to project it. Seth Walder of ESPN released their prediction of how the season will go on Monday. ESPN’s projections are based on their football power index (FPI) and 10,000 simulations of the season.
The average result of those simulations has the New York Giants finishing with a 7-10 record amid season-ending losses to the Cowboys and Eagles.
With two weeks left, the Cowboys, Eagles and
Giants were in a three-way tie with mediocre 7-8 records. It took weeks for Philadelphia to find its offensive rhythm under new coordinator Sean Mannion. The Cowboys’ new-look defense held up well early in the season but couldn’t sustain that improvement, causing Dallas to enter the final two weeks on a four-game losing streak. The Giants’ passing game struggled early with wide receiver Malik Nabers being limited but got better as he got healthier.
All three teams had a shot at the playoffs with two games left. The Cowboys dealt a major blow to New York in Week 17, winning a 19-7 defensive battle. The Eagles upset the 49ers 23-19 on the road. But the Cowboys had the tiebreaker advantage, so Dallas took the division when it beat the Commanders in Week 18 even though Philadelphia prevailed over the Giants to finish with an identical 9-8 record.
The playoffs start off with a bang for the Cowboys, with Dak Prescott putting up 31 points on the Seahawks’ defense, while limiting Seattle to just 19. They come crashing back to Earth the next week and are ejected from the dance by the Detroit Lions.
Chris’ thoughts
Could this scenario come to pass? Well, obviously, anything can happen. However I think I’d be pretty stunned if this exact scenario played out — and probably nowhere near as stunned as the folks at ESPN would be if their prediction came true.
I’m not surprised that ESPN’s models are pretty low on the NFC East. After all, the division was weak last year, and these models tend to be rear-looking. However, the division also abounds with new coordinators and schemes and nobody quite knows how the various units will perform under their new coaches.
The Cowboys are widely expected to make a leap thanks to the arrival of new DC Christian Parker and rookie S Caleb Downs. However, Downs is in fact a rookie, and there’s always a learning curve with rookies. Likewise, while Parker is a Vic Fangio disicple and has been hailed as a wunderkind, he has never run an NFL defense before. There’s no way to definitively say whether he will be a success or not.
Likewise, Sean Manion has never run an NFL offense and the Eagles will be without A.J. Green. The Eagles have been more efficient and explosive with Green than without him, and we don’t know if Dontavian Wicks will be able to fill Green’s shoes or how Jalen Hurts will adapt to his new reality.
And finally, the Washington Commanders may be planning to ape Brian Flores’ blitz-happy approach to mask their defensive limitations. Will they? And if they do, will it work? And can Jayden Daniels stay healthy for the full season and return to his rookie form?
The Giants, as we’ve covered extensively, have completely retooled their offense and defense. Nobody is quite surewhat the former will look like under Matt Nagy, Brian Callahan, and Greg Roman. It is interesting that the media is so high on rookie coaches like Parker and Manion, while dismissing the Giants’ own experienced coaching staff. I’ll admit my bias in being optimistic for the Giants this year. But (as I’ve written before) it seems odd to me that so many are predicting that the best the Giants can do is win the same number of games they should have won the year before. And with what is expected to be a stronger roster and far better coaching, at that.
The good news is that we’ll get the answers to all these questions soon, as opening day is rapidly approaching. But for now, it’s still fun to speculate as we pass the time.
