With the Iowa game coming up in just about 46 hours I reached out to the folks over at Black Heart Gold Pants and they were nice enough to give me some more information on the Hawkeyes. Thanks to Jonah Parker for his responses.
Purdue fans, and college football fans generally, are used to an Iowa team that thought that punting was winning and offense was just something a team HAD to do. That’s not the case anymore. They scored 41 against Washington, 30 against Wisconsin, and 55 against Northern Iowa.
What is this Iowa team doing differently on offense than in year’s past?
Let’s not get carried away – punting is still winning around here and Boston Everitt is still a weapon (he’ss dropped 22 of his 39 punts inside the 20). But yes, the offense is seemingly competent now. It’s year three under Tim Lester and Iowa finally has a quarterback who fits what he wants to do. Hank Brown is completing 65.8% of his passes, which would be the best season by an Iowa quarterback since at least 2013.
I think the biggest difference, however, is Iowa actually has some personnel for Brown to throw to. The Hawkeyes always seem to find TEs and this year is no different with DJ Vonnahme, but Reece Vander Zee and Tony Diaz are both legitimate receiving threats on the outside that can make contested catches and stretch the field vertically a bit. Add to that an offensive line that has allowed 8 sacks in nine games, 8th fewest in the country, and the passing game is at least enough to keep opposing defenses honest.
Out of the backfield, injuries have shifted the trajectory of things as the season has progressed, but Iowa is running for 173.8 yards a game and has five different 100-yard rushers this season – a first for the program.
However, I’d pump the brakes just a little. While things are certainly better, Iowa is still only averaging 27.8 points a game with the #103 passing offense in the country. A lot of the damage came against Northern Illinois and UNI. The Hawks scored just 10 in the loss at Minnesota and last week’s second half at Northwestern produced only 88 yards of offense. It’s an efficient, functional offense attached to an elite defense.
Which unit is the strength of the offense? Who are the players to watch?
I mentioned the weapons on the outside for this group as a major difference from past seasons, but this is still Iowa. The strength always is and likely always will be the offensive line, even banged up. Starting center Cael Winter is doubtful again, but sixth-year senior Michael Myslinski stepped in at Northwestern and nothing changed. There have been some struggles against very good defensive fronts in the run game, but against softer rush defenses they’ve been able to just maul opponents. And as mentioned, they’ve been elite at keeping the QB clean, which is really all you can ask for up front.
In the backfield, I mentioned the injury issues before and honestly the Hawkeyes are lucky the backfield is as deep as it is. After bringing in the nation’s leading rusher from a season ago, LJ Phillips (from South Dakota) went down with an ankle injury and missed a month of action. He was slowly working back in when Iowa lost lead back Kamari Moulton for the season to a shoulder injury. Phillips Jr. responded with 128 yards on 21 carries in his first start last week.
The other name Purdue fans will learn the is freshman RB Braeden Jackson, son of former Buffalo Bills RB Fred Jackson. He’s a sparkplug out of the backfield that topped 100 yards against UNI and is a great receiver. But more notably, he has returned five kickoffs this season and two went for touchdowns – 99 yards at Michigan and 96 at Northwestern. Given the Boilers only get a touchback on ~57% of their kickoffs, he could be a real X factor on Saturday night.
On defense, what unit is the strength and which has struggled?
While there were major questions entering the season, the front seven is the best part of this football team. Iowa is #3 nationally in scoring defense at 12.2 points a game, #5 against the run at 81.9 yards and has allowed two rushing touchdowns all season. The Hawks have 30 sacks and they come from everywhere. Linebacker Cam Buffington leads the team with 82 tackles and DT Bryce Hawthorne was ragdolling people in Evanston. He’ll be playing on Sundays.
Iowa has three shutouts and has given up one touchdown in its last nine quarters.
So where’s the hope if you’re Purdue? The secondary. Michigan, Ohio State and Washington threw for 276, 324 and 320 yards in consecutive weeks and Iowa is missing a couple of defensive backs. That group has tightened up considerably since, but Ryan Browne and Asaad Waseem are a real test. It’s strength for the Boilers against proverbial weakness on the defense.
I would expect the Hawkeyes to sit in their zone and let Brown pick them apart underneath (this should sound pretty familiar to Purdue fans) especially in the first half. DC Phil Parker likes to sit in his base package and keep everything in front, waiting for the opponent to stub their own toe with a missed throw, turnover, etc. He’ll ratchet things up in the second half and I would expect pressure on Browne to really turn up once we get into the 4th quarter.
Iowa sits 15th in the CFP. How do you feel about their chances?
Cautiously pessimistic, if that makes sense.
Going into the matchup at Minnesota Hawkeyes fans were feeling pretty good. Iowa had looked great on the road at Washington and it felt like we finally had an offense to go with the defense. Then they laid an absolute egg and we thought the playoff hopes were completely dead. Now it’s really just a matter of taking that Phil Parker approach and tryig to control the controllables while waiting for other teams to make a mistake in front of them. The Hawkeyes won’t finish with a marquee win. The Minnesota loss is not great. But maybe if they push to 10-2 it’ll be enough.
My experience as an Iowa fan says they get to 10-2, look good doing it and then still get left out so we can spend the rest of our lives bickering over how dumb that loss in Minneapolis was.
If you were drafting a game plan to beat Iowa, what would it look like?
I think there are two ways to beat Iowa and we’ve seen both so far this year. The first is to simply overwhelm them with talent the way Ohio State did pre-Julian Sayin injury.
The other is to absolutely dominate the turnover battle the way Minnesota did. Iowa turned it over four times that game and put the ball on the deck three other times without losing it. It was an utter disaster from the offense and it’s something opponents can generate if they have a good front four and the horses in the back end to play man against Iowa’s improved weapons.
On the other side of the ball, I wouldn’t waste too many downs running the ball. Get it out of Browne’s hands quickly, use the short passing game that Iowa will willingly give up as your run game and then convert in the red zone.
And again, do not kick to Braeden Jackson.
Is the visitors’ locker room still pink?
It is, and gloriously so. Hayden Fry had it painted pink decades ago and when Kinnick was renovated in 2005 Iowa doubled down with pink lockers, pink sinks and pink urinals. We hope you find it soothing.
While I don’t know about the psychological impacts of it being pink, which was the original thesis, we have seen a number teams try to make it a “non-issue” by essentially wallpapering the entire thing with their own team’s colors. Typically, that has meant the mind war is already lost. An opponent’s best approach is to not think about it at all. It’s a visiting locker room – bare bones, uncomfortable and just happens to be all pink.
What’s your prediction for Saturday?
FanDuel Sportsbook has Iowa as a 17.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5, an implied final around 32-15. Iowa hasn’t lost as a two-touchdown favorite since 2016, but the Hawks are just 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 November games at Kinnick when favored by 14 or more. I expect Browne to hit a few throws and keep this closer than the committee or Iowa fans would like.
That said, I expect the Hawkeyes to be able to run on the Boilers and I’m starting to cautiously buy into the concept of Iowa having some semblance of a passing attack (which probably means we’re due for a repeat of the Minnesota performance, but alas).
Iowa 30, Purdue 13.
