Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 27 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: UB Stadium — Amherst, NY
- Spread: UConn (-3.5)
- Over/under: 49.5
- All-time series: UConn leads, 17-5
- Last meeting: UConn 47, Buffalo 3 — September 28, 2024
- Current streak: UConn, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
For the second-straight year, two northeastern opponents meet in a September non-conference matchup.
The 2024 meeting in East Hartford, CT was thoroughly one-sided as UConn put together a two-way masterclass to suffocate the Bulls in a 47-3 finish. However, Buffalo improved significantly as the 2024 campaign progressed and finished 9-4 — the same record with UConn attained. Both teams are sitting 2-2 after playing in a slew of tightly-contested games, and only one escapes UB Stadium above .500 through
five weeks.
UConn Huskies outlook
Connecticut (2-2, Independent) is out to prove the 9-win season in 2024 wasn’t a fluke, but a sign of things to come in the Jim Mora Jr. era. The Huskies already suffered a pair of overtime heartbreaks in their first two road trips at Syracuse and Delaware, and losing by the thinnest of margins is what’s separating them from a 4-0 start.
UConn’s offense possesses explosive capabilities, and Buffalo learned that the hard way last September when the Huskies accrued 537 yards in the lopsided victory. A similar cast of talent returns including quarterback Joe Fagnano, running back Cam Edwards, and wide receiver Skyler Bell. Fagnano has been a model of efficiency this year, delivering 1,046 yards and six touchdowns in his first four games on a 66.2 completion rate — all without an interception. The seventh-year senior quarterback has been kept upright by a sturdy offensive line thus far, and he’s capable of firing for 250+ on a given day.
Edwards led the FBS in Week 4 rushing yards by punishing Ball State with 194, icing the game on a 67-yard touchdown scamper late in the fourth quarter. Breakaway runs are Edwards’ specialty, and he’s broken free for a 50+ yarder in three of four games this year. He is one of six FBS running backs to already hit the 500-yard threshold, and he looks to add to that after posting 9.7 yards per carry on the Bulls’ defense last fall.
Rounding out UConn’s offensive trio is Bell who ranks first nationally in receptions with 36 and second in receiving yards with 445. Even when teams key on the star receiver, he still manages to produce at a high rate. Last week he was responsible for 14 of UConn’s 20 receptions, turning them into 113 yards and a touchdown. This is nothing new for Bell, who posted 153 yards and a hat trick of touchdowns on Buffalo in 2024.
Fagnano, Edwards, and Bell are all standouts at their positions, but arguably the most impressive part of UConn’s offense to date is ball security. UConn is one of two FBS teams, along with Temple, to complete four games without a single turnover. And the Huskies are doing this while ranked 16th in yards per game.
UConn isn’t receiving the same contributions on the defensive side, as evidenced by a 44-41 overtime loss to FBS newcomer Delaware. The Huskies have been prone to surrendering explosive plays throughout the season and late-game defensive lapses almost let Ball State back into last week’s contest. They are 112th in passing defense and 111th in total defense, consistently allowing opposing skill position players to enjoy career days.
There is an area of strength defensively, and that involves pressuring opposing quarterbacks. UConn is tied for eighth in the FBS with 3.5 sacks per game, and nobody on the Huskies is better at generating them than inside linebacker Bryun Parham. Parham’s 5.5 sacks are second among all FBS players, only behind Utah defensive end John Henry Daley.
Buffalo Bulls outlook
Buffalo (2-2, 1-0 MAC) experienced quite a two-week roller coaster. The Bulls found themselves in a back-and-forth affair against Kent State in their MAC opener but fended off the heavy underdogs with a late go-ahead touchdown. However, they weren’t as fortunate in Week 4. Buffalo possessed a seemingly-comfortable 17-0 lead in the fourth quarter against the visiting Troy Trojans but disaster struck in those final 15 minutes. Buffalo traded three-and-outs while the Trojans exchanged touchdowns, and Troy escaped with a 21-17 comeback victory.
The result on the UB Stadium scoreboard wasn’t all that Buffalo lost in Week 4. In the third quarter, starting quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson suffered a lower leg injury and never returned, depriving the Bulls of their veteran seventh-year senior. Head coach Pete Lembo officially ruled Roberson as doubtful this week, denying him a chance to face his former school UConn, where he started during the 2022 season.
In all likelihood, Gunnar Gray is slated to make his first collegiate start. Gray earned his first substantial playing time in last year’s blowout at UConn, completing 4-of-11 passes in effort to spark the Buffalo offense. Gray handled five possessions last Saturday and guided Buffalo on a field goal drive before facing a three-and-out barrage. The senior finished the game 5-of-13 and with a full week of prep, he looks to deliver his best showing yet in an expanded role.
Not much is known about Gray’s rushing ability considering he has never logged a single attempt. Mobility was a key element of Roberson’s game, and Buffalo may try to ignite Gray in the run game to keep UConn’s defense on its toes. The majority of running will be handled by lead back Al-Jay Henderson who is up to 274 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the season in a follow-up act to a dominant end to 2024. UConn will see a heavy dose of Henderson, especially considering Buffalo’s quarterback situation. The tailback is currently ninth in the country in rushing attempts and is comfortable handling well north of 20 in a given game.
Henderson is also one of five Buffalo receivers above 100 yards this year, sharing the designation with four wide receivers — Victor Snow, Nik McMillan, Chance Morrow, and Jasaiah Gathings. There is explosive potential within the receiving corps, especially Snow, and they’ll look to add comfortability to their new quarterback.
Although it didn’t apply in last year’s UConn game, where the Bulls usually make their mark is on the defensive side. Minnesota and Troy both experienced long dryspells against a disciplined Buffalo unit, although the group was subject to fourth quarter collapses (mainly in the secondary) in both losses. Buffalo is led by star linebacker Red Murdock who ranked second in the FBS in tackles and first in forced fumbles a year ago. In 2025, Murdock is third nationally with 44 stops, and the potential All-American already has two sacks and two forced fumbles to his name.
Other havoc-wreakers on this unit include edge rushers Kobe Stewart and Dion Crawford who combine for 4.5 sacks, looking to provide enough pressure to force UConn’s first turnover. Buffalo is tied for first in the nation in sacks per game at 4.0, and the pressure comes from a variety of areas as five different Bulls wield at least 2.0 sacks.
Prediction
UConn’s offensive talent is well-documented. Buffalo returns nine defensive starters from 2024, so the same Bulls suiting up Saturday are the ones looking to make adjustments from that 47-3 result last September. The Huskies can attack in a variety of ways using stars Cam Edwards and Skyler Bell, and their explosive playmaking should carry over to UB Stadium.
Buffalo’s Red Murdock-led defense is powerful enough to generate some resistance, especially in the backfield. If UConn can fend off that pressure, it will have a huge advantage in the downfield passing game as Bell looks for more video game numbers against the Bulls. On the flip-side, while UConn’s defense has struggled often this year, Buffalo is breaking in a new quarterback and the lack of Ta’Quan Roberson may be too tough to overcome.
Prediction: UConn 27, Buffalo 17
