We’re a mere two weeks away from the 2026 MLB First Year Player Draft, and it’s time for my second annual “listen to the prospects guy shout aimlessly about incoming prospects”. Last season, I highlighted three Tennessee Vols, among others, for the Guardians’ first round pick: Gavin Kilen (SF R1:13), Marcus Phillips (BOS CB-A:33), and Dean Curley. Curley ultimately fell a fair amount in the draft, largely driven by defensive concerns and passivity, but Cleveland ended up getting him anyways at pick 64.
Seems like a win? Anyways, Cleveland ultimately went astronomical upside, equally devastating downside at pick 27, selecting Texas A&M outfielder, Jace LaViolette, and with LaViolette, Cleveland’s entire concept of player profile tendency went by the wayside.
Today, I’ll be bringing a handful of pitchers to the table. Next week, I’ll bring a few bats to the plate. I’ll start with names I’ve heard linked to the Guardians at 19, and then I’ll roll through some names further on down the draft that I like for Cleveland.
Starting with R1:19: I strongly think that, unless an AJ Gracia-level bat falls to 19, that Cleveland will be cashing in on a player from a group of the strong college pitching likely to be available to them in this range and bolstering a rather thin, top-heavy pitching system.
We’ll start with A Vol again, Tegan Kuhns.
ROUND ONE: 19th Pick
TEGAN KUHNS | RHP | TENNESSEE | 21
SYNOPSIS: Kuhns makes so much sense for the Guardians for four reasons: good spin, great fastball shape, good command, quality extension. Kuhns has three offerings that will have teams salivating over getting him in their pitching labs, and his long-limbed, athletic movements on the mound signal a pitcher built for consistency.
Kuhns operates with a traditional three-quarters slot, but his release height sits ~65.5 inches, and with that low release height and above average extension, he generates very good metrics for his fastball. Kuhns’s 4-seam sits 93-96, flashing 98 on occasion, and he eats the zone alive with it. He runs an iVB that ranges consistently between 18-20 inches, and that’s with ~11 inches of arm-side run at that release height. Of course, this will naturally deflate a bit with the pro ball, but his vertical approach angle at the top of the zone is as flat as it gets in this draft, and I have no doubts that the fastball will continue to play at a high level as he gets into a minor league system given how terrific his command is of the offering. When he was able to consistently live along the top half of the zone with his fastball, he proved to be borderline unhittable at times.
Kuhns does a great job mirroring his arm action with his changeup, and he combined that with an 8-10 mph difference from his fastball and good fading action. His changeup became a late-count out pitch against lefties, running a whiff rate north of 35% and in-zone whiff rate around 31%. He has a good feel for it, and if he got into Cleveland’s system, this is the pitch most likely to blossom into another plus offering alongside his fastball.
Kuhns drops an upper 70s curveball with around 2600 RPMs to primarily steal strikes, but he got good returns on it, generating a whiff rate of 37.7% against power-4 competition, his highest whiff rate of any pitch. His slider, however, is the breaker that I’m most intrigued by. Kuhns struggled to replicate his shape with his slider consistently, seeing it get too verty and lose its depth, leading to some loud contact, but at its best, it resembles a death ball shape in the 84-85 mph range. What I want to see him do with his slider is add a tick to it while keeping its depth. A slider with sudden drop at 85-87 is so much more effective for what Kuhns wants to do, and it lets him keep it in the zone a bit more safely when needed.
IF CLEVELAND DRAFTED KUHNS, I WOULD FEEL: THRILLED
Kuhns has some acute reliever risk, but I’m fairly bullish on that not becoming reality. I like his repeatable mechanics, I think this is among the best fastballs in the draft, and Kuhns is a massive competitor. The lack of consistency he has with his slider shape and its lack of in-zone whiffs with it make me raise an eyebrow, but I trust that he fleshes it out and pairs with a borderline plus fastball, and I feel the changeup is a great pairing with it. The later the season got, the better the slider shape appeared to be, and he went to his fastball less, showcasing a real starter’s repertoire and usage.
LIAM PETERSON | RHP | FLORIDA | 21
SYNOPSIS: Peterson is a fascinating right-handed pitching prospect in this year’s draft. A mountain of a pitcher, he stands at 6-foot-5 and close to 230 pounds with a higher arm slot, a massive fastball, and big spin capabilities.
There are some concerns here. I’m not the biggest fan of Peterson mechanically. Despite it being a more compact process, it’s far from smooth, and I believe it contributes to his biggest area of concern with consistency. It boils down to not throwing enough strikes with his fastball and throwing too many with it as well, leading to him getting behind in counts consistently early in outings or tagged much harder than he should.
Peterson has a big fastball and gets good extension, generating around 20 inches of iVB on average with a hair under 10 inches of arm-side movement, but a release height just north of 80 inches creates a fastball that does not generate friendly VAA, and the pitch generated under 20% whiff rates this season with Florida. When he stays up in the zone, he finds his most success, but he can miss high and not get any chases or stay lower in the zone at a hitter friendly angle and get touched up. He sits in the mid to upper-90s, typically 94-98 with big spin, and his entire repertoire is built around his heater.
Peterson’s best pitch is his slider. His breakers generate ~2800 RPMs on average. The slider sits 84-87 with good downward depth, and he ran a whiff rate just north of 50% on the season as a whole with the offering and goes to it against either handedness. It’s one of the better breaking pitches in the draft. Its 27% usage is necessary as it’s the only other pitch he can comfortably keep in the zone in any count outside of his 4-seam, and it was his main put-away pitch to righties. Peterson has a curve that generates big drop but works best either as a strike stealer or well below the zone.
Peterson has a changeup that gets vertical, right around 11-12 iVB, with good tumbling action. Its usage is vital for his fastball and keeps him a three, sometimes four pitch guy to lefties.
IF CLE DRAFTED PETERSON, I WOULD FEEL: NERVOUS
Peterson has big velo and a lot of traits to love, but given the names possibly available at this range, he’s the name I’m not totally sold on. I don’t love his command, and if he can’t consistently get swings and misses with his fastball, I’m typically going to push away on a college arm like this in the first round.
CADE TOWNSEND | RHP | OLE MISS | 21
SYNOPSIS: Townsend is my trust your eyes over the stat sheet pick here, largely just with his fastball. Townsend is a smooth mover on the mound, and establishing more consistent, repeatable mechanics was a clear goal moving into his final season at Ole Miss. He noticeably switched from a rested handset at his front hip through his windup in seasons prior to an overhead motion before bringing his hands back down to his chest. This gets him to his release point quicker and more consistently. Townsend gets above average extension (~6.3-6.4) with a deep arsenal of weapons at his disposal, all of which he has a capable feel for that comes from a 40-43 degree arm angle.
Townsend’s 4-seamer struggled this season, getting hit hard, but he was also able to get good in-zone whiff results with the offering. As we get through his write-up here, you’ll see it was just about the only pitch he struggled with. The shape, however, is very good. It’s more ride than run, generating 19.5 iVB to just 7.3 inches arm-side at a quality ~72 inch release height.
Townsend works a really nice cutter that he used almost as much as his fastball. He can get under the hands of lefties and get weak contact, and even with the higher usage, he still generated quality swing and miss stuff with it. His cutter sits along a good vertical plane with ~3 inches of horizontal movement and was a real weapon in both negating hard contact and creating swings and misses. From there, his high-80s changeup creates good tumbling action, generating close to 1100 RPMs fewer than the fastball. Between it, his cutter, and his 4-seamer, it makes for a strong trio pitch group against LHH.
Townsend spent time developing a sweeper this season, and it generated a little under a foot of sweeping action for the season. The returns were really good here as he ran a whiff rate of 46% with a chase rate of 36%. He showed real poise in executing the pitch down and away to RHH. Any added sweep here would be great, but even at where it sits, it’s a quality offering. He also mixes in a low-80s curveball
IF CLE DRAFTED TOWNSEND, I WOULD FEEL: CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
Townsend oozes tenacity and competitive fire, almost to a fault. Between an unrelenting desire to win and a true 5-7 pitch repertoire that has shown flashes of fastball diversity, he has all a team could want in terms of a starting point to develop. His size is going to be something held against him as he stands just 6-foot-1, but I would be willing to take that chance, even at pick 19.
CAMERON FLUKEY | RHP | COASTAL CAROLINA | 21
SYNOPSIS: Flukey will be the final name we touch on here for first round arms. Flukey suffered a stress fracture in his rib back in February, and he didn’t return to the mound until late April, making just six outings after the injury, most of which were short bursts as he tried to build back up. Flukey possesses a big ceiling, thanks in part to his size and velocity capabilities. The long-limbed 6-foot-6 righty is a good mover whose fastball possesses electric stuff with a motion as lengthy as the day is long.
Flukey’s fastball sits 95-97 while being a real threat to reach triple digits. When he lives with the heater up in the zone, he’s borderline unhittable. Flukey is an extension monster, living around the 7-foot range. Finding consistency with the fastball up in the zone is priority number one with this pitch as Flukey, largely due to not having a fleshed out arsenal, had to lean on his fastball to fill out the zone rather than attack it with his strengths. Flukey averaged close to 20 iVB with the college ball, generating just shy of 8 inches of arm-side run. Along with added strength, he worked on truncating his motion a bit, and it returned some promising consistency with the fastball in comparison to the season prior. Flukey’s primary issue with the heater in ‘25 was finding its consistent shape. His extraneous movement before planting his landing foot created a lot of less than desirable shape.
Flukey’s slider is a low to mid-80’s gyro slider that hovers right around the zero axis. It generates hardly any iVB and minimal arm side run and generates a lot of swing and miss and chase. It’s a unique shape, and one that I’d like to see him find a tick or two more velo with. This sitting 85-88 with that kind of sharp drop would be a menace of a pitch. Flukey mixes in a big, loopy 12-6 curve of which the bottom just drops completely out of. It’ll sit upper 70’s.
Flukey showed a changeup in previous seasons, but he was predominantly a three-pitch pitcher coming off his injury. At the very least, we know it’s there.
IF CLE DRAFTED FLUKEY, I WOULD FEEL: ECSTATIC
These are the swings Cleveland needs to take if they fall into their laps. True draft day top-10 college talents don’t typically wind up falling to 19 all that often, and though I don’t think Flukey will (I’m eyeing 12-15 here), it’s not out of the realm of possibility. For reference, Over Slot’s most recent mock draft as of July 1 has Flukey falling all the way to 25. Between the injury and the amount of tidying up needed here, it makes sense, but the stuff is truly electric in spite of a real reliever risk.
ROUND TWO: 59th Pick
Round two is where I will choose to focus on the prep arms possibly available here (except for one). Cleveland will not have pick 29 at their disposal, so we will all be waiting from pick 19 all the way until pick 59. Cleveland has shown a history of going prep in R2, and these are some arms to highlight for this range.
KADEN WAECHTER | RHP | JESUIT H.S. (FL) | 18
Stop me when you’ve heard this before: Guardians target prep arm who’s an athletic mover with refined mechanics on the mound.
Waechter, who is set to turn 19 a couple weeks post-draft, is as advanced mechanically on the hill as any prep prospect in the class with a fastball that generates quality spin. At the 2026 Preseason Classic, Waechter sat 92-96 with the heater, and he throws both a traditional 4-seam that finds 15/8 iVB/HB splits and a sinker that runs more 9/16. Keep in mind, his early season outings were relief appearances as Jesuit wanted to preserve his arm for their season, but the velocity, good shape and control, and big, 2500+ range spin capabilities are there.
Waechter mixes in a tumbling changeup that creeps its way towards the upper 80’s. With more polish, this is a real weapon against lefties. His slider has been touted as one of the better breakers of the prep arms in this draft. It sits comfortably in the mid-80s with good spin, and its sharp bite creates a run and drop action that has had high school bats completely baffled. Waechter has also flashed a seldom used low-80’s curveball.
IF CLE DRAFTED WAECTHER, I WOULD FEEL: ON CLOUD NINE
Waechter has mid-rotation upside, if not higher, with a projectable frame and great spin capabilities to develop into a real deal prospect. There’s already four capable pitches here with potential for more, and if Cleveland saved some money in R1 and threw that money at Waechter that deep into R2, they will have just picked one of the biggest steals in the draft.
GAVIN GIESE | RHP | DANA HILLS H.S. (CA) | 18
Giese has seen a late rise up the ranks boost his draft stock into the stratosphere. Committed to go pitch at San Diego, Giese now has real top three rounds helium, ranging from back of the comp picks all the way to 70.
Giese is a 6-foot-4 right-handed pitcher who has grown two inches and put on 30 pounds, filling out a prototypical starter’s frame, and finding fastball velo with it. Giese’s mechanics are solid, and he moves down the mound incredibly well. Many reports indicate well above average extension here.
Giese comfortably sits 90-92 now, and there’s more velo to be found here as he generates capable spin and already saw a major spike in velo from his junior year. Giese has a slider and curve that also generate good spin and will need continual refining to find their right shapes. He also throws a quality kick-change, easily his best offering right now that separates well from his fastball at his vertical release point and falls off a cliff.
IF CLE DRAFTED GIESE, I WOULD FEEL: OPTIMISTIC
Late risers can be scary given how much unknown it can entail, but Giese’s rise feels rooted in very trustworthy traits.
WES MENDES | LHP | FLORIDA STATE | 21
One final collegiate starter, and finally, a lefty, and a fun one at that! Mendes is a former two-way player out of the same Jesuit High School as Kaden Waechter. Mendes went the round-about way to get to Florida State, stopping at Ole Miss first.
Mendes is among the more underrated arms with 2nd round likelihood that you’ll find. He’s incredibly refined despite only now fully shifting towards pitching as his focus with a plus changeup and burgeoning slider.
Mendes sits 91-93 with the heater, reaching back for 95 at times. He gets quality ride and ~10 inches arm-side run from a ~71 inch release height. Despite Mendes having a higher three-quarters slot around 55 degrees, his above average extension and lower release height help create optimal shape with a -4.1 VAA along the top third of the zone.
Mendes has good command across his arsenal, primarily with his fastball, changeup, and slider. Mendes was a menace in particular to RHH because of the fastball+changeup combo. His circle-change generates huge horizontal action as it dives down and away. The changeup ran a whiff rate north of 50% with an in-zone whiff rate north of 40%. It was among the very best cambios in the nation.
IF CLE DRAFTED MENDES, I WOULD FEEL: THRILLED
Mendes is a big draft crush for me. His arsenal compliments itself much like a familiar FSU lefty’s arsenal did heading into the 2022 Draft. I see real sudden and quick growth here, and I think there’s comfortable back-end starter ceiling here, pushing fringe middle-rotation.
And that’s it! 3,000 words later, we have covered seven names either linked to the Guardians or are favorites of mine personally. Cleveland has a lot of work to do in regards to replenishing its arms within the system, and this is a very good draft to do exactly that.
