Moise Kean was Serie A’s best striker last year. He finished second to Mateo Retegui for capocannoniere but he was more important to his team’s success and warped opposing defenses due to his supercharged threat in behind in a way Retegui doesn’t. Expectations were sky-high for the man crowned Italy’s number 9 heading into the World Cup but, like everyone else at Fiorentina, he’s fallen flatter than a schiacciatta this year: After scoring 19 goals in the league last year, he’s got just 8 this season
and has achieved some astonishing lowlights.
Much has been made of Kean’s woeful domestic form and some of that criticism is fair. Kean’s got the highest xG in Serie A this year per Understat at 15.36, which means he should’ve scored about twice as many goals as he has. He’s getting chances, averaging 4.35 shots/90 (2nd-highest among players with 900 minutes) so it’s not a matter of his team failing to set the table. The Moose just hasn’t been good enough. Over these final few games, though, I believe that he’ll improve significantly for five reasons.
The first reason is tactical. Kean’s greatest strength is his threat in behind. To maximize that threat, he needs as much of the pitch as possible to attack. Over the first half of the season, Fiorentina’s narrowness allowed opponents to collapse on him, packing central areas and crowding him out. Paolo Vanoli settled on Manor Solomon and Fabiano Parisi on the wings as guys who naturally stay wide, stretching opposing defenses horizontally and creating more gaps for Kean to exploit. Add that to a more balanced midfield (thanks to Cher Ndour’s emergence) and Kean has more space to operate and more consistent service and support.
The second reason is health. Kean played through a right ankle injury for several months that negatively impacted him both physically and technically. While his nuclear straight-line speed never left, he lost some of his agility. More importantly, he lost interest in playing with his back to goal; given the agricultural treatment he regularly receives from centerbacks, he was trying to protect himself from further injury. His touch deteriorated too, making it harder for him to bring down long balls and finish. While xG said that he should’ve scored more, his own body made those chances much more difficult. From what I can tell, he’s just about healthy again.
The third reason for optimism is just the vibes. Strikers run on confidence and Kean even more so than many strikers; it’s no coincidence that his best seasons have come in places where managers placed trust in him. Fiorentina’s attitude under Stefano Pioli was rotten and Vanoli’s primary challenge has been undoing that damage. As the Viola inch away from relegation, the tension leaks out of everyone on the team, allowing them to play looser and better. That should help the Moose as much as anyone and maybe more.
Fourth, I think that cascading confidence will improve the team as a whole and that those improvements will do more for Moise than anyone else. Kean’s pace in behind, as I mentioned earlier, is his most dangerous quality. Everyone knows that and generally sits deep to negate that. The best way to force opponents to take the bus out of park is to put them at a deficit. As they throw bodies forward, space opens up behind. It’s slightly circular (elliptical?) logic but having his teammates chip in more goals means the Moose will have more chances to score, increasing his confidence and thus his likelihood of scoring.
Finally, I’m banking on math. Kean’s 2024-2025 was unsustainably hot. His 2025-2026 is unsustainably cold. Things generally re- or progress to the mean, particularly when the context points them in that direction. Kean’s too talented to keep misfiring forever. The gambler’s fallacy is at play but I trust a good player to be good sooner than later. As the rest of the team gets it together, Kean’s odds of snapping out of his funk increase apace.
After scoring in 3 straight games last month, it seemed that Kean was all the way back. He’s yet to notch in March but just clinched Italy’s win over Northern Ireland with a marvelous strike, setting up a showdown with Edin Džeko’s Bosnia and Herzegovina to determine which goes to the World Cup this summer. It’s the 5th consecutive game he’s scored in for the Azzurri (the first to do so since Toto Schillacci in 1990), emphasizing both his importance to Gennaro Gattuso and his sheer talent.
The thing about truisms like “form is temporary, class is permanent” is that they’re true. That applies to Kean as much as anyone. Everyone who’s seen him play since he was a teenager has known that he’s got all the talent in the world. I’ll always back a fuoriclasse to do cool stuff, especially one with a track record of doing cool stuff. I don’t gamble on anything but I’d put money on Kean finding his feet ahead of the World Cup and dragging Fiorentina out of the drop zone.
