If last Monday’s game against Manchester City was an unusual one – I’m certain that nobody anticipated a 3-3 thriller at the Hill Dickinson Stadium – then reaction to both the match, and its implications for Everton’s prospects of qualifying for Europe have been a little skewed. Beforehand, the team’s chances of winning were written off, given City seemed in the midst of a trademark come-from-behind title charge, but following the draw, many commentators have spun this into a doom-and-gloom scenario,
with continental qualification dismissed. This is hard to understand, given the three games which the team has left to play are all winnable.
OK, Everton are currently on a four-match winless run, which hardly speaks to ending the campaign with unstoppable momentum, but a point against City has to be looked upon as a bonus, given the relative strengths of the two sides. Yes, the nature of the final result was always going to be a downer; it’s hard to see it as anything but two points squandered. The manner of the second goal, for example, was inexcusable, with the team’s experienced defensive duo of James Tarkowski and Michael Keane effectively laying down the red carpet for the division’s most fearsome predatory striker, Erling Haaland, to run in on a helpless Jordan Pickford. So, yes, frustration is inevitable, but the negativity has still been excessive.
The Blues can make amends in short order by taking all three points from Sunday’s trip to South London, where they’ll take on a potentially distracted Crystal Palace, who will be playing their ninth game in 31 days — four more than the Toffees over the same period.
Form
It’s been quite an unusual year or so for the Eagles. Manager Oliver Glasner wins the first major trophy in the club’s history, last season’s FA Cup, only to gradually – and ultimately spectacularly – fall out with the owners, over a perceived (OK, factual) lack of backing over the summer. Although he lost the talented Eberechi Eze to Arsenal, following on from the exit of classy winger Micheal Olise a year earlier, the Austrian was able to halt the sale of captain and star defender Marc Guéhi to Liverpool, but reinforcements arrived late and were inadequate to the demands of a Premier League campaign, added to Palace’s first venture into Europe. Sadly, the club’s convoluted ownership structure could not be resolved quickly enough to prevent them falling out of the Europa League and into the Conference League.
The damage was done, and Glasner’s exit during, or at the end of the season, has looked nailed-on most of the way. Still, until the end of last year, Palace performed well, losing only five games from their opening 25 in all competitions — one of which was a 2-1 reverse at Hill Dickinson in early October, when they tired badly during the second half, having played Dynamo-Kyiv in Poland less than three days earlier. Heading into the winter transfer window, and the eventual cut-price sale of Guéhi to City, their form declined – despite the board sanctioning a spend of almost €90m on new attackers Jørgen Strand Larsen and Brennan Johnson, with the Londoners failing to win any of the next 12.
In mid-January, Glasner finally announced he would be leaving the club at the end of the campaign, when his contract expires, which surprised nobody. The Eagles have stabilized since, doing well enough in the league to stay clear of any relegation danger, whilst focusing on the Conference League. They play the final against Rayo Vallecano at the end of the month – which is maybe the biggest game in the club’s history – and it certainly looked like minds were elsewhere during a desultory 3-0 away defeat at Bournemouth last Sunday. The South Londoners earned that European final place with a 2-1 (5-2 aggregate) semi-final win over Shakhtar Donetsk on Thursday evening, fielding a full-strength team, as would be expected.
Team Assessment
Glasner is a 3-4-2-1 (or 3-4-3) man, who sets up to play in transition, using a lone striker with physical presence, and pace playing off him. The wingbacks are expected to provide natural width, though the supporting two advanced midfielders are given licence to roam, which can make them difficult to pick up. Out of possession, the team drops into a highly structured defensive shape, effectively a back five with the four midfielders compressing space in the centre, and making it a difficult task to pass through them. They are set up to invite this, and then to break quickly when the ball is turned over. It’s a system which has won the 51-year-old Glasner silverware with Eintracht Frankfurt, and Palace, and which he has a strong chance of adding to against Rayo.
Dean Henderson offers a solid presence in the Palace goal, though he has shipped six goals from the last eight efforts on target he’s faced in the league. The hosts’ back three will consist of Chris Richards, Maxence Lacroix and probably Jaydee Canvot. The former two comprised two-thirds of an impressive, well-disciplined trio alongside Guéhi, who has been replaced by the teenage Canvot, who is a talent, but inexperienced.
Palace’s two first-choice two holding midfielders are Adam Wharton and Daichi Kamada. Both are good on the ball, especially the England man, and though neither are naturally defensive-minded, they do a good job of screening the back three and blocking off passing lanes. Kamada knows Glasner well, having won the Europa League under him in Germany. Tasked with providing width will be Tyrick Mitchell on the left, and the impressive Daniel Muñoz at right wingback. The Colombian is a real attacking threat, with four goals this term.
In front of the midfield, Palace have a few good options, but Ismaila Sarr is the standout, should he be selected. Once linked to Everton, the Senegalese is traditionally a winger, but operates narrower in Glasner’s formation. Pacy and direct, Sarr has scored seven league goals, but 19 in all competitions. Yéremy Pino has shown flashes as Eze’s replacement, but has lacked a cutting edge, whilst Johnson has so far failed to show the goalscoring form he displayed last season at Spurs. Up front, Strand Larsen has got the nod in the league over Jean-Philippe Mateta. The Norwegian has scored three since moving to the Eagles, though Mateta leads the team with ten league goals.
Prediction
If Everton are going to give it a good go at finishing in the European places, then they need to get a move on. Against a Palace side who are stuck solidly in lower midtable, with the Conference League final on May 27th their sole game of consequence, this presents an ideal opportunity for the Blues to get that elusive victory, to start a very late surge for the finish line. If they can’t win here, then forget it. David Moyes has alternated talking up and playing down Europe all season, and even he seems tired of it now, but if the team plays anything like it did on Monday in that second half (at least from an offensive standpoint) then surely that will be enough to win this afternoon.
Idrissa Gueye appears to be a late call for the match, as he’s not been training this week, so it figures to be the same lineup who played City, with Tim Iroegbunam deputising for the veteran. The 22-year-old is maybe the most trusted (or maybe least untrusted) of Everton’s squad players, by the manager. He offers combativeness and athleticism, but is careless in possession for a midfielder. Merlin Röhl, who showed dynamism and pace as an ad hoc right winger, after puzzlingly not playing for months, surely retains his spot. The big question is: who starts up top? Beto has been on form, firing four goals in his last four starts, but Thierno Barry came off the bench to score a brace against City. The Frenchman is an instinctive finisher, unlike Beto, who is all effort, but to whom nothing football-related comes naturally.
Against a tired home side, who may possibly even rest a few starters, the scenario doesn’t get much better for the Toffees. I don’t see the Eagles being able to step up – either physically or mentally – should the visitors put their foot down on the accelerator and press them all over the pitch. There really is everything to play for here, and despite misgivings from some, who are concerned about juggling a European campaign at a relatively early stage of a rebuild, I want to see the team live up to its motto, and show the scale of ambition which should be a given for a club of Everton’s size, and history. Palace have done it, and it’s long overdue to start creating some new memories for success-starved Toffees fans.
Prediction: Palace 1-2 Everton
Statistics provided courtesy of transfermarkt.com and fbref.com
