Wow. Just wow. Just last night I talked about the perils of falling in love with walk-off victories. Not that I think the Cubs were sitting back and waiting and thinking that they could just flip a switch at the last minute. And yet, the game played out that way anyway. Your mileage may vary, but this “shape” of game frustrates me more than say Friday’s loss. Oh, it’s embarrassing to lose 18-3, don’t get me wrong. But when the pitching is bad on this team, I kind of expect that. I’m not interested
in exploring that thought just now. But that’s where my baseline is. But on a night like Sunday? A night when the bullpen gives the Cubs eight innings of relief with no runs allowed? That’s frustrating.
I know Javier Assad is a starter and I know he’s stretched out. So when I say “relief” outing, I see a few eyes rolling. But to be fair, Assad might have been told to be ready for a multi-inning outing Sunday. I’m sure that thought was maybe Javy would be called upon to throw two or three innings to bridge the gap between an underachieving starting rotation and an overworked bullpen resulting from those short comings. But he surely wasn’t guaranteed to get those innings tonight. Jacob Webb and Daniel Palencia both threw in this game and surely would have been available if (say) Jameson Taillon had gotten deep in the game. If Jameson gives them six innings and leaves say a 5-2 game, does Assad even pitch? So it’s not like he was sitting there ready to go. No one expected to see him in a competitive second inning.
But there was Assad on no notice, Webb for a couple of batters and Palencia for the ninth inning. All of that before Trent Thornton’s rough 10th inning in a tough spot. But I give Thornton credit. I will always think the reliever did a decent job if he holds the team to a single run in the top half of an extra inning. The whole setup is turbo charged, designed for run scoring. It’s superior if they hold a team scoreless and a disaster if they allow two or more. Again, your mileage may vary. So I don’t hold this against Thornton in any way. I do think differently about the bottom of the inning, particularly after you get a run in the top of the inning. It changes the way the inning plays once you have that lead. The pressure alone helps the road team once they get that run.
So my ire here is where it largely is with this team. These hitters have lost their way. It’s so bizarre. I’ve gotten to the point where I pretty much only want to see Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch and Ian Happ bat. I will give a nod to Moisés Ballesteros for a really great plate appearance tonight and the only run driven in. But that performance like so many of his teammates has been so few and far between for the last month. In this one, that was compounded by a couple of questionable baserunning decisions. A team shouldn’t slump for a whole month. Nico Hoerner. Alex Bregman. Seiya Suzuki. To differing degrees, these guys have track records. I don’t even know what you do with this.
I mean that’s not entirely true. The real answer is that you look yourself in the mirror. I’m not a big fan of ultimatums. I don’t think you go fire and brimstone from the front office. You just do your job. I know combing the back fields is quite the way amateur scouting goes anymore. At least not to the extent that it once did. But whatever amateur scouting looks like, whatever minor league scouting looks like, whatever international scouting looks like, you turn your attention there. It’s not over, but this team is heading towards lost cause. You start doing your homework on how to make this team better in 2027 and beyond. There’s no magic button that is going to fix this. Either these hitters are going to come back to life and find the magic they had earlier, or you are going to drift into oblivion.
The efforts are best served looking to the future. Not that an organization can’t “walk and chew gum at the same time.” But, I’m certain the tenor of phone calls and planting seeds is different when you are looking to add bodies than when you are looking to subtract them. Certainly if you think that another Edward Cabrera-type addition could add for 2026 and into the future, incremental help could help this year. The draft isn’t valuable enough to reward tanking in baseball. So I don’t think you go full youth movement or anything. But I do think you maybe at least start signaling that certain veteran players might become available, say by visibly scouting high level prospects from contending organizations.
It makes me sick that we are here. But it is what it is. I realize the Giants also just took two out of four from the Brewers. But I think of it like a piece I wrote earlier in the week about getting shut down by an A’s pitcher making his second major league start. In both situations, on a one off basis, of course that can happen. But this team hasn’t won a series in a month. Getting to easier competition hasn’t helped. The Cubs won two games this week. One was a fluky ninth inning comeback and one was an individually heroic performance behind the most effective Cubs starter. The offense had three good games on the road last week and got three wins out of it. But it’s just not enough. Two of six at home this past week. Three of seven the week before against two division rivals. No wins the week before.
Not. Good. Enough. Not. Acceptable.
Three Positives:
- Javier Assad threw 6.1 innings of scoreless relief. He allowed a hit, a walk and hit a batter. Even in the era of occasional use of openers, that has to be one of the longest and most effective relief outings in Cub history.
- Moisés Ballesteros had a hit, a walk and an RBI in his three plate appearances. A very nice day at the plate for the rookie. Very encouraging as one of the guys who has struggled a lot over the last month.
- Ian Happ had a triple. The only extra base hit by the Cubs.
Game 66, June 7: Giants 2, Cubs 1 (34-32)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Javier Assad (.456). 6.1 IP, 21 BF, H, BB, 0 ER, 5 K
- Hero: Moisés Ballesteros (.148). 1-2, BB, RBI
- Sidekick: Daniel Palencia (.134). IP, 3 BF, K
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Alex Bregman (-.545). 0-5, DP
- Goat: Michael Busch (-.202). 1-5, DP
- Kid: Carson Kelly (-.195). 1-4, R
WPA Play of the Game: Alex Bregman lined into a double play with runners on first and third and no outs in the eighth inning. With all due respect to the rest of the game, this is where the potential Cub win died. You can see that in the chart above. (.301).
Cubs Play of the Game: Michael Busch singles with no outs and a runner on first and the game tied in the eighth inning. After a throwing error, the runner Kevin Alcantara went first to third. (.181)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 65 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 237 out of 254 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Busch +20
- Ben Brown +11.5
- Pete Crow-Armstrong/Michael Conforto +10
- Carson Kelly/Ian Happ +8.5
- Ryan Rolison/Phil Maton/Jameson Taillon -8
- Caleb Thielbar -9
- Matt Shaw -10
- Dansby Swanson -11
- Seiya Suzuki -26.5
Up Next: An off day on Monday. On Tuesday, the Cubs start a three game series in Colorado. The Rockies aren’t as woeful as they’ve been recently, but they are 24-42 with a -99 run differential. That run differential points to an expected 24-42 win loss record. So, you could say that they are who they are. By OPS, the Rockies are 17th in MLB (Cubs still hanging in there at ninth). By ERA, the Rockies are 30th (Cubs are 19th). One might expect, looking at those numbers, that the teams would have a high scoring series. The Rockies are 12-19 at home (12-23 on the road).
Colin Rea (5-3, 4.59, 64.2 IP) makes his 11th start of the season. He’s allowed seven earned runs over his last three starts, covering 17.2 innings (3.56 ERA). 36-year-old righty Tomoyuki Sugano (5-4, 3.98, 63.1 IP) gets his 13th start of the year. He’s 3-2 with a 4.50 in five home starts this year.
Two or even three wins in Colorado isn’t going to reignite my excitement about this team. But again, tanking doesn’t have a ton of value in baseball, so might as well go win these games.
*Side notes, Javier Assad and Alex Bregman’s Sunday night performances appear to both be among biggest WPA values by Cub players this year (one positive, one negative). Additionally, Pete Crow-Armstrong’s game Saturday and Pete Crow-Armstrong’s game Thursday were all notable WPA games for the season. Look for a comment from me on Monday regarding where those performances stack up with others this year. Or in the case of the PCA Saturday heroics, how it fits in amongst performances in recent years (by WPA).
