Game notes
- Time and date: Wednesday, November 12 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: CBS Sports Network
- Location: Kelly/Shorts Stadium — Mount Pleasant, MI
- Spread: Central Michigan (-2.5)
- Over/under: 44.5
- All-time series: Central Michigan leads, 8-4
- Last meeting: Buffalo 37, Central Michigan 13 — October 7, 2023
- Current streak: Buffalo, 1 (2023)
Setting the scene
The frigid temperatures of Midweek MACtion return. Central Michigan hosts Buffalo in sub-40 degree weather Wednesday night in a battle of two 5-4 teams still alive in a busy MAC championship race. Keep
your eyes fixated on the running backs and linebackers in this physical matchup where the winner clinches bowl eligibility.
Buffalo Bulls outlook
Buffalo (5-4, 4-1 MAC) controls its own destiny for its first MAC championship since 2008. The Bulls ended the 2024 campaign on a 5-game win streak and Pete Lembo looks to do the same in his second year at the helm.
Lembo’s team cannot stop involving itself in close games. In six-straight games from Week 3 to Week 9, the Bulls were subject to six one-score finishes, winning three and losing three. Most of these games have taken on a lower-scoring nature as Buffalo has not allowed more than 24 points in a single loss this year. That shows that when the Bulls struggle, it’s typically on the offensive side — notching 17 points or fewer in all four defeats.
Buffalo heated up at the end of 2024 thanks to a breakout stretch from running back Al-Jay Henderson. Henderson produced four 100-yard games during Buffalo’s 5-game win streak to conclude last season, and his individual success directly translates to team success. The Bulls are 6-0 when he hits 100 yards, and he’s fresh off his first century mark performance, generating 119 against Bowling Green on Nov. 1.
Buffalo is 3-0 this season when quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson hits 270 passing yards. The seventh-year senior quarterback can sling it for 300 or 400 on a given day, but the Bulls don’t operate with the most consistent passing game. Roberson also looks to gain mobility back after generating 145 rushing yards in his first three outings and -6 in his last four starts since suffering an injury vs. Troy.
Roberson is equipped with two big-play receivers in Nik McMillan and Victor Snow who rank fourth and fifth in the MAC, respectively, in receiving yards. Snow has been a walking highlight reel all season, producing two go-ahead touchdowns in the final two minutes and also scoring an overtime touchdown as the team’s ultimate clutch star.
Still, defense remains the identity of this team. The Bulls rank 23rd in the FBS in scoring defense at 19.6 points allowed per game, and they field as good as a linebacker as there is in the country. Red Murdock will likely secure All-American honors as the nation’s fourth leading tackler with 105 stops, in addition to his 12.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, and six forced fumbles. He has six forced fumbles in a 6-game span and became the standalone FBS career leader in the category last game against Bowling Green.
Buffalo is sixth nationally in sacks per game with defensive linemen such as Kobe Stewart and Junior Poyser pulling heavy weight in that regard. There are so many strengths on this star-riddled defense which allows just 3.4 yards per rush and 184 passing yards per game, but there is one area for improvement. Buffalo only has four interceptions all season and is susceptible to allowing explosive passing plays, so better execution by the high safeties on such plays can turn this great unit into more of a force.
Central Michigan Chippewas outlook
Central Michigan (5-4, 3-2 MAC) is hanging around the conference championship picture, eager to clinch its first bowl berth since 2021. First-year head coach Matt Drinkall is already working wonders on the Chippewas, but the team must rid itself of a bad taste from losing a hard-fought rivalry, 24-21, to Western Michigan on Nov. 1.
The most important thing Drinkall gave the Chippewas was an identity. Central Michigan is as physical as any MAC program, and it’s not afraid to lower the pads and run every play just like a service academy would. The Chippewas rank 10th in rushing attempts and fifth-to-last in passing attempts, only throwing the ball more than the three service academies and Rice’s option-oriented offense.
Central Michigan performs its best when it doesn’t need to pass. The Chippewas’ last two victories were 27-6 and 35-13 conference wins that involved 18 combined passes. Central Michigan typically utilizes a 2-QB system which involves the more aerial-oriented Joe Labas and the more ground-oriented Angel Flores. However, Flores is currently dealing with an injury and missed the Western Michigan game, thrusting Labas into a larger role. However, Marcus Beamon is keeping the 2-QB system alive as the mobile option, taking nine carries in his season debut earlier this month.
The Chippewas utilize a three-man backfield of Nahree Biggins, Trey Cornist, and Brock Townsend, who all present physical running styles to the table. Biggins is the most utilized of the three, but each member of the trio has at least 280 rushing yards for a team not afraid to pound the rock. The only downside to Central Michigan’s style is third and longs can be difficult to convert, and the Chippewas are 103rd in the FBS with a 36.3 third down success rate.
No wide receiver on the team has 300 yards yet, but Langston Lewis is close with 295 on a team-high 21 receptions. Central Michigan will deploy the receivers when needed, but the team hasn’t thrown 20 passes since an Oct. 4 contest vs. Akron.
Central Michigan’s defense has been quite strong throughout the season. Outside of facing two currently-ranked opponents in Michigan and Pittsburgh, the Chippewas haven’t surrendered more than 28 points. Inside linebacker Jordan Kwiatkowski leads this unit with 73 tackles, exhibiting a versatile résumé which includes five tackles for loss, two interceptions, and three pass breakups. Dakota Cochran is another effective run-stopping linebacker on this 3-4 defense.
Unlike Buffalo, interceptions have been a frequent occurrence for this Chippewa defense which ranks top 25 in the FBS with 10 picks. Brenden Deasfernandes has been the top cover corner with two interceptions, and he’ll look to contain Buffalo’s potent wide receiver tandem.
Prediction
This will be a lower-scoring, physical, back-and-forth game, featuring a heavy dose of the run game and plenty of stops at the line of scrimmage. Like most Buffalo games, this likely comes down to the wire in one-score fashion, especially considering the teams’ similar 5-4 résumés that have been displayed up until this point.
Buffalo’s offense can be like a random number generator, and Central Michigan is the more consistent force in this matchup. The defenses will keep it low-scoring, but the Chippewas’ will ground their way to a narrow home victory Wednesday night in Mount Pleasant.
Prediction: Central Michigan 20, Buffalo 17
