- Location: San Jose, CA (CEFCU Stadium)
- Date/Time: Saturday, November 1st 10 a.m. MT
- Television: FS1
- Radio: KVOR AM 740, Colorado Springs
- Head-to-Head: Air Force leads the overall series 5-3. They last met in 2024, where San Jose State defeated Air Force 17-7.
The season is quickly speeding to the finish line. With four games remaining on the Falcons schedule, their next stop is San Jose, California, where they will take on a Spartan team that is fresh off of a victory
against Hawaii. The joy of the Falcons lone victory over an FBS opponent three weeks ago, has quickly evaporated with another in a series of gut-wrenching losses to Army, following their bye week.
They will find no relief found in their opponent this week. The Spartans are fresh off of a shootout win over Hawaii last week. And leading this team is a coach who is probably more familiar with Air Force than anyone, including last weeks opposition. Ken Niumatalolo had a stellar career in Annapolis, leading Navy before heading back West last year, to lead San Jose State University. And don’t let their 3-5 record fool you. San Jose State features the countries top passing attack. Probably the absolute worst sentence you could possibly read if you are Air Force, considering the historic levels which their secondary has struggled.
On the bright side, the Spartans have struggled a bit defensively on their own, surrendering over 30 points per game. This game will feature two of the most generous pass defenses in the country, as Air Force isn’t the only team in this matchup who has not been able to ground an oppositions aerial attack.
We don’t need to regale the placement of this Falcon defense among the nations worst in nearly every statistical category. Their struggles are well documented. And things will not get any easier with Walker Eget slinging the ball for the Spartans. Eget has thrown for 2,600 yards and 17 touchdowns already on the season. Considering he’s also missed some time, it makes those numbers even more impressive. Now, in a twist of irony from a Service Academy coached team, San Jose State hasn’t ran the ball all that well. Part of that may be due to the prolificacy of their passing game.
The Falcons have played some pretty fantastic offense in their own right. While their passing numbers won’t rival by volume, they certainly do by effectiveness. Air Force does feature the nations top offense in yards per completion, and they are third in the country (lead the MWC) in pass efficiency. Pair that with college footballs second ranked rushing attack, and it’s easy to see why they’ve been in every game despite allowing a whopping 35 points per game.
Unfortunately, keeping it close is all they have been able to accomplish this year, which really is a shame. Liam Szarka and the Air Force offense has been one of the most entertaining in the Mountain West, even the country. They will have to continue to be for Troy Calhoun’s squad to keep Bowl aspirations alive for another week. With a loss, Air Force is officially out of Bowl contention, which at this point seems an incredibly likely season outcome. Those added practices for Bowl game prep would prove invaluable to a team that is playing so many young players, especially on defense.
The Falcons can with this game if the offense continues to play well, but they cannot turn the ball over like they did last week. Now, I would be more inclined to attribute last weeks three turnovers to what I now have come to accept as “the Army effect”. For whatever reason, in their recent history, Air Force does uncharacteristic things against their foes from West Point, and it’s been a serious contributor to a very disturbing losing trend in this series.
Against San Jose State, who in their own right has been generous defensively, they cannot give possessions away. In fact, they can’t go possessions, plural, without putting up points if I’m being honest. The defense has showed some improvements, despite breakdowns that continued through last week. But even with modest improvements, this is a secondary that has been exposed by every team they have played, with the exception of Wyoming. And the Pokes broke off multiple big plays on the ground.
San Jose State is a different animal. Walker Eget and his 1,000 yard receiver, Danny Scudero are going to be a problem. If we are being honest, this is not about stopping the Spartans offense. It’s about keeping them off the field, finding a way to steal a possession, be that end of half or ideally by way of forcing a turnover. But a heavy dose of the rushing attack, keeping Eget on the sideline as much as possible will go a long way to fueling a Falcon win. One area San Jose State has particularly struggled is on fourth down. They haven’t been able to stop it, and aren’t converting on it. Maybe if coach Toth and the defense can force a few misfires, getting to fourth down scenarios, a stop can be had? We know the Falcons will be testing that Spartan defense on fourth down in their own right.
At the end of the day, this is probably the very worst match-up for Air Force this year. An air raid passing attack that has amassed big plays and yards all year long. If they can somehow steal a possession or two, DO NOT turn over the ball and maintain the offensive output sans Army, then I believe Air Force wins this game. I realize those are a lot of conditions to victory. And I don’t see them winning this game should they not be able to win the turnover battle and steal possessions.
Either way, fans are in for a treat today. Don’t focus on these teams records. These are two of the Mountain West’s most entertaining teams. They are led by rival coaches with a long history. Two of the winningest active coaches in the country too in case you weren’t aware. Just enjoy the show.
