It’s been a rough two weeks in Columbus. Ohio State has lost back-to-back games for the first time since 2011, the Buckeyes fell to No. 21 in the AP poll and their playoff hopes are most likely dead.
But on Saturday against Northwestern, Ohio State fans should get something to celebrate. Jeremiah Smith is about to become the most productive receiver in Big Ten history.
31 yards from history
Smith caught seven passes for 133 yards and a touchdown against Oregon, putting him at 3,758 career receiving yards. Purdue’s John
Standeford set the Big Ten record of 3,788 yards from 2000 to 2003.
That leaves Smith 30 yards from tying it and 31 from breaking it.
For Smith, 31 yards is usually just one catch. He’s averaging more than 130 yards per game this season and has 16 career 100-yard games, the most in Ohio State history. Unless something goes very wrong, he should break this record in the first half against Northwestern.
When he does, he’ll own two of the Big Ten’s three major career receiving records. He already broke Braylon Edwards’ career touchdown record at USC, catching his 40th touchdown from Luke Fahey. He’s added two more since, giving him 42.
The third record is the one he probably won’t get. Purdue’s Taylor Stubblefield caught 325 passes from 2001 to 2004, and Smith has 232. With three regular season games left, plus whatever postseason Ohio State gets, that’s almost certainly out of reach.
Owning the career yards and touchdown records in just three seasons is remarkable enough.
The Heisman race has changed
It’s hard to believe, but just three weeks ago, Smith was the clear Heisman favorite. That’s no longer the case.
Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr is now the favorite after leading the Irish past previously undefeated Miami on Saturday night. Carr went 29-of-40 for 319 yards and three touchdowns against the Hurricanes, and his odds jumped from around 12-to-1 to the betting favorite, sitting at roughly +120 to +140 depending on the sportsbook.
Miami’s Darian Mensah is second, and Smith has fallen to third at around +400.
That’s not really about Smith’s production. He’s still second in the country with 1,200 receiving yards and tied for first with 14 touchdowns, on 69 catches. He’s done that despite losing Julian Sayin, catching passes from a true freshman over the last two games and facing defenses that throw extra bodies at him on nearly every snap.
The problem is Ohio State’s losses. The Heisman usually goes to the best player on one of the best teams, and voters care about the big moments in big games.
At 6-3, with consecutive losses to USC and Oregon, Ohio State has likely played itself out of the College Football Playoff. A non-quarterback on a team outside the playoff field is a very tough sell.
It’s also worth noting how rare it is for a receiver to win the Heisman at all. DeVonta Smith in 2020 was the last one, and Alabama won the national championship that year.
Jeremiah Smith probably needed Ohio State to be in the playoff race to overcome the voters’ quarterback bias.
Still a trip to New York
That doesn’t mean Smith’s Heisman campaign is over completely. I still think he’ll likely be a finalist and get his invitation to New York for the ceremony on Dec. 12.
Smith is breaking records that have stood for more than 20 years, and the voters know he’s been the best player in college football for the past three seasons.
Realistically, winning the trophy will be difficult. He’d likely need huge games against Northwestern, Nebraska and especially Michigan, plus some help from Carr and Mensah stumbling down the stretch.
Either way, Saturday is about something bigger than the Heisman race. In a season that has gone sideways for Ohio State, Smith is about to become the Big Ten’s all-time leading receiver.
Ohio Stadium should give him a standing ovation, and the recognition he deserves, when it happens.
