AUSTIN, Texas — Seventeen years ago, Florida Gators quarterback Tim Tebow made “The Promise” after a loss to the Ole Miss Rebels.
“I just want to say one thing to the fans and everybody in Gator Nation. I’m sorry. Extremely sorry. We were hoping for an undefeated season. That was my goal. It’s something Florida’s never done here. But I promise you one thing — a lot of good will come out of this,” Tebow said.
“You have never seen any player in the entire country play as hard as I will play the rest
of this season, and you’ll never see someone push the rest of the team as hard as I will push everybody the rest of this season. You’ll never see a team play harder than we will the rest of the season. God bless.”
The Gators then ripped off eight straight wins, securing the SEC Championship and beating the Sooners in the national championship game to immortalize Tebow’s statement in the pantheon of sports promises.
After Florida’s 26-7 loss to Miami prior to its bye week, sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway made his own statement that stands much less of a chance of earning an enduring place in program and national mythos as “The Guarantee.”
“Let me tell y’all something — we’re gonna get things changed, for sure. I guarantee that. I can guarantee that. This is not acceptable at all. I’m not going to sit here and lie to y’all and make this seem like this is okay. This isn’t okay. We’ve got to play better football, and it starts with me,” Lagway said.
“I’m the head of it. I’m going to start with it. I’m going to demand greatness from everybody. We’re done with the playing-around stuff. It’s time to get serious, and it starts with me.”
Here’s the difference — Florida entered the 2008 season under fourth-year head coach Urban Meyer with a 31-8 record over Meyer’s first three seasons, including a national championship in 2006. Tebow had served as a short-yardage option on that team, scoring eight rushing touchdowns and adding five more through the air. In 2007, when Tebow took over the starting role, he threw for nearly 3,300 years and 32 touchdowns while bludgeoning opponents to the tune of 895 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns on the ground.
This year, the aspirations for Florida are much more modest as the job security of fourth-year head coach Billy Napier is teetering on the verge of dismissal in the midst of three straight losses after last season’s 8-5 record marked the first winning season for Napier in Gainesville.
Nothing about Napier’s trajectory in Gainesville suggests he’s the second coming of Urban Meyer. Or even Ron Zook, who at least managed three straight winning seasons and recruited most of the players Meyer won that title with in 2006.
Lagway is isn’t yet deserving of any serious Tebow comparisons, either, starting the season with an efficient performance in a blowout victory against Long Island and a solid effort in what was initially considered an upset loss to USF before poor decisions defined a 20-10 loss to LSU that featured Lagway throwing for 289 yards, but also having five passes intercepted among his six turnover-worthy throws graded by Pro Football Focus.
Prior to the bye week, Lagway only threw for 61 yards on 23 attempts during a defeat by Miami, at which point avoiding any interceptions or turnover-worthy throws represented something of an accomplishment.
As a result, Napier took an aggressive approach to providing Lagway with game-like reps during the bye week.
“We did quite a bit of just 11-on-11, full-speed work with DJ there, just trying to get caught up for him. That was important, just more live bullets with him and the other players. That’s what he needs, and that’s ultimately what we decided to go with,” Napier said.
Injuries have significantly impacted the start of Lagway’s career — the No. 3 overall prospect and No. 1 quarterback in the 2024 recruiting class, according to the 247Sports Composite rankings, the Willis product experienced lingering effects from a shoulder injury sustained playing high school baseball that forced Lagway to spend most of the offseason rehabilitating. A hamstring injury kept him from playing in last November’s 49-17 win by Texas in Austin against walk-on Florida quarterback Aiden Warner.
Those weren’t the only injuries, as Lagway also underwent offseason surgery for a core muscle injury and dealt with groin issues as well. During preseason camp, a calf strain limited Lagway.
All the injuries made it difficult for Lagway to implement mechanical changes that he made during the offseason, when he was unable to throw during spring practice.
“Being able to step a little further into his throws with his lead foot, and that helps with his weight management and control,” Lagway’s quarterback coach JP Tillman told CBS Sports. “And then the other thing was making sure that he didn’t get too low when he pulled the ball back. So when he got into his first stage of his wind up where we would kind of stretch and pull the ball back, making sure that he didn’t get the ball too far below his elbow.”
The extent to which injuries have impacted Lagway on the field are perhaps debatable, but it’s not difficult to draw a connection between so many core aspects of his overall approach to the position and often subpar outcomes on the field in 2024 that produced a completion percentage of less than 60 percent and 12 passing touchdowns against nine interceptions, the latter of which came at an extremely high rate of 4.7 percent.
Regardless of health, Lagway’s decision making and mechanics certainly let him down against LSU. An analysis of his five interceptions noted that four came on third down and despite consistently clean pockets. Poor timing and footwork produced the first interception, poor eye discipline and footwork led to the second, an inability to work through progressions and forcing the ball into double coverage resulted in the third, throwing into triple coverage instead of settling for a field goal turned into the fourth interception, and pressure led to the fifth when Lagway threw across his body.
Those five interceptions paint a picture of a quarterback for whom struggles can compound as a result of breakdowns in technique and fundamentals — Napier needs Lagway to be more poised and more sound with his feet and his eyes and his overall game-management ability. In short, Napier needs Lagway to mature quickly and translate that maturity to the field on Saturdays. Napier’s job almost certainly depends on that.
Regardless of the recent struggles, Sarkisian is concerned that the combination of Lagway’s talent and force of personality will show up on Saturday in Gainesville.
“What I do know is the competitor and the talent is still in there, so we better be mindful and better be ready to get the best version of DJ Lagway. I know the competitive Lagway — I know the competitor that he is,” Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian said.
And despite the offensive struggles and pressure on Napier, the Texas head coach believes that Napier is putting his players in a position to succeed.
“I know the coach that Billy is and they’ve been scheming people up. They just maybe haven’t been hitting them here the first few games. But they’re gonna attack us, and they’re gonna attack us down the field, multiple shifts and motions and things, so gotta do a great job stopping the run, but we better be cautious and aware of them throwing the ball down the field,” Sarkisian said.
So the imperative for the elite Texas defense is clear — don’t allow Lagway to gain early confidence and let that propel him to a breakout performance, a major upset, and an indicator that “The Guarantee” could actually blossom into an enduring narrative.
