The Cubs last played the Marlins May 21, 2025. They won that game 2-1. That was 471 days ago, so long ago that it was the day of Cade Horton’s second MLB start and Matt Mervis was the Marlins’ designated hitter.
Things are, obviously, very different now for both teams.
The good news here is that the Cubs won’t have to face Miami’s best starter (and one of the best in the league), Sandy Alcántara.
For more on the Marlins, here’s Ely Sussman, who runs the Marlins site Fish On First.
The 2026 Marlins are
an incomplete team, but that’s still good enough to hang around in the race for the National League’s third wild-card spot.
There have been extreme inconsistencies on an individual level. During the first half of the season, Otto Lopez, Max Meyer and Liam Hicks did a lot of the heavy lifting. Since then, Lopez’s bat has dramatically cooled, Meyer landed on the injured list and isn’t expected back this year, and Hicks was traded to Tampa Bay. As of late, Javier Sanoja and Eury Pérez have elevated their games to compensate for that.
The Marlins quietly have baseball’s lowest starting rotation ERA over the past month, but aside from Pérez and Sandy Alcántara, they keep their starters on a very short leash. That applies pressure to a bullpen which is lacking in experience with both Pete Fairbanks and Anthony Bender on the IL (and John King recently released). Until Fairbanks gets back, it’s a closer-by-committee approach.
In any matchup, the Marlins’ success largely hinges on how they navigate opposing right-handed batters without any reliable left-handed arms and how much damage they do to the other team’s southpaws given their own lack of pop from the right side of the plate.
Fun facts
The Cubs’ first visit of the year to Miami has come even later than today’s date in four seasons:
2010: Sept. 17
2022: Sept. 19
2004: Sept. 20
2007: Sept. 25
Their Sept. 22 game at Wrigley Field will be their latest first meeting there, breaking the record of Sept. 10 in 2004.
…..
The Cubs are 56-59 in games at Miami, including 20-23 at loanDepot Park.
Since sweeping three games there in April of 2019, the Cubs lost three straight in 2021, won two of three in 2022, were swept in 2023, then won two of three in 2024 and 2025.
Two years ago, the Cubs won the first two games and lost the third. Last year, they lost the first, 8-7, then won the next two, 14-1 and 2-1.
The Marlins’ eighth run in this year’s series will make them the 14th team to tally 1,000 vs. the Cubs. The only other current National League team with fewer than 1,000 is the Diamondbacks, with 935.
(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
Probable pitching matchups
Friday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (8-10, 4.01 ERA, 1.144 WHIP, 4.80 FIP) vs. Janson Junk, RHP (6-8, 4.11 ERA, 1.301 WHIP, 4.15 FIP)
Saturday: Clay Holmes, RHP (2-2, 1.55 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 3.23 FIP in five starts with Cubs; 6-6, 2.09 ERA, 1.065 WHIP, 3.22 FIP in 14 starts overall) vs. Ryan Gusto, RHP (1-3, 3.86 ERA, 1.330 WHIP, 4.01 FIP)
Sunday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (8-3, 4.05 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 4.57 FIP) vs. Tyler Phillips, RHP (4-6, 3.43 ERA, 1,332 WHIP, 4.47 FIP)
NOTE: The Cubs do not yet officially have starters listed for Saturday and Sunday. Holmes and Boyd should get those starts based on the current rotation.
Times & TV channels
Friday: 6:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Saturday: 3:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Sunday: 12:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Prediction
Honestly, I have no idea. The Marlins have played well at times, not so well at other times. They’ve been good at home, with a 42-27 record at loanDepot Park. But they are 20-39 against teams at or better than .500 and since the beginning of August they’re 1-8 against such teams.
Further, Miami is 16-23 against left-handed starters.
So I’m going to say the Cubs should, and will, take two of three.
Up next
The Cubs travel to Milwaukee for a three-game series against the Brewers beginning Monday afternoon.
