Matthew Stafford is the reigning MVP and the Los Angeles Rams were one play away from winning the NFC Championship last season, but one accolade he almost did not get was making the top-10 QB list of ESPN analyst Mina Kimes. During her podcast this week, Kimes ranked Stafford as only the 10th-best quarterback in the league, and the consensus ranking between her and guest Benjamin Solak placed the Rams QB 11th overall.
Although Kimes and Solak based their list on a three-year timeline and said that
Stafford could be in the top five if they were only looking at 2026, which is when the L.A. Rams are also favored to win the Super Bowl, the ranking is just as questionable on an extended timeline. Who is more likely to win a Super Bowl in the next three years: Matthew Stafford’s Rams or Jayden Daniels’ Commanders? Stafford’s Rams or Dak Prescott’s Cowboys? Stafford or Justin Herbert, one of the worst playoff quarterbacks in recent history?
This is another example of the NFL media overrating youth and distant projections over empirical evidence from the recent past and the way in which value wanes the further we look ahead into seasons beyond the next one.
In other words, despite Matthew Stafford being a far superior quarterback to the likes of Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels last season and likelier to win an MVP and a Super Bowl next season, Kimes and Solak are too focused on the ceiling of players in their 20s, but ignoring the many examples in history of quarterbacks who had immense potential right before they flopped.
Matthew Stafford’s age has almost no impact on his 3-year value
There’s little reason to believe that Stafford’s timeline is only one more year and Ian Rapoport reported after the draft that the Rams believe he will be back again in 2027. But will it even take more than one year for Stafford to be more valuable than half of the quarterbacks that Kimes and Solak ranked above him
Stafford may be the second-oldest starting quarterback in the NFL, but even at 38 should not have any issues playing three more seasons at a high level if that’s what he wants to do. Kimes, who has been given the honor by the Rams franchise over the last few years of providing color commentary during preseason games, is less enthused by Stafford’s next three seasons than that of Herbert, Prescott, Daniels, Jordan Love, and five other quarterbacks.
“If it was a one-year timeline, Stafford would have gone by now,” Kimes says, referencing the five spot occupied by Drake Maye. But then she hesitates. “Or actually, well, would he?” That more than implies Kimes is not even sure Stafford is one of the top-five quarterbacks in the NFL entering 2026.
Then, when Solak says he would rank Stafford above Joe Burrow at number four, Kimes asks who is in the better situation, implying that L.A.’s supporting cast compared to Cincinnati’s is the reason Stafford has gotten more credit.
Later, Solak notes that the gap between Stafford’s numbers from a clean pocket versus under pressure is one of the widest in the NFL.
“He has the 10th-biggest different out of 50 QBs in the last two years on EPA between pressured dropback vs. un-pressured dropback. You are starting to notice that it’s so hard for him to beat high-pressure teams because he can’t move.”
Is Stafford actually too fragile?
Kimes then calls Stafford “fragile” and that any loss to the offensive line could dramatically alter what happens to the Rams offense next season.
Stafford, who just signed a $55 million Rams contract extension on Thursday, has not missed any games due to injury over the last three seasons and been available for all of those postseason appearances too. We also know that from McVay’s usage of 13 personnel and Stafford’s success from those looks, that he’s getting more protection upfront than from just the offensive tackles.
By the end of the season, Stafford had completed 99 of 145 passes in 13 personnel for 1,261 yards, 661 air yards, 22 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 134.8. To put into perspective just how off the rails that was, Aaron Rodgers of the Steelers and Jacoby Brissett of the Arizona Cardinals ranked second in touchdown passes with 13 personnel — a grand total of three each.
Stafford’s injury concerns have almost exclusively been contained to offseason reports but have yet to really impact his availability in the regular season despite several changes along the offensive line. Stafford’s experience has helped him be savvier against pressure in terms of getting the ball out fast enough to avoid sacks.
Fragility also did not seem to negatively impact the quarterback ranked number three on their list, Lamar Jackson, even though Jackson plays a far riskier brand of football and has missed playoff games before. Who is more likely to reach the Super Bowl in the next three seasons: Stafford or Lamar Jackson, a quarterback with a 3-5 playoff record in eight years?
Giving Justin Herbert and Jordan Love credit before it’s deserved
Herbert, who made it all the way to number six on the list, has an 0-3 playoff record in six years. Even on a three-year timeline, is it reasonable to believe that quarterbacks like Herbert, Love, Daniels, and Caleb Williams have significantly better odds of succeeding between 2026-2028 than a quarterback who has already proven himself?
Jayden Daniels is ranked higher than Matthew Stafford on a list ranking quarterbacks. Higher!
There was once a quarterback named Robert Griffin III in Washington who won Offensive Rookie of the Year over Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson. He got injured at the end of his rookie season in the playoffs, but even after his second season he still looked like he had the potential to be great.
But by year three, RGIII’s career was basically over.
Most fans hope Daniels rebounds from his injuries and poor performances in 2025, but one good season and one bad season are not enough to suggest that he’s already a top-10 quarterback. No matter what the timeline is.
Caleb Williams became the most overrated quarterback in the NFL almost overnight. He can’t consistently complete even 60-percent of his passes. The Bears are constantly having to win games from behind because of his turnovers, including five interceptions and one fumble in two playoff games last year.
And Jordan Love is barely even an adequate quarterback, let alone a top-10 one, but oftentimes ESPN ranks tools and potential over evidence.
Age is Overrated for Quarterbacks
It’s like going back to Tom Brady’s age-38 season in 2015 and ranking him below Luck, Blake Bortles, Ryan Tannehill, Cam Newton, Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, and Jameis Winston, just because they’re younger.
Brady led the NFL in touchdown passes that season, but he only had one more than Bortles. He was also 12 years older than Cam. Who was predicting that Brady wouldn’t just win more games than Cam Newton, he would be better on eight-year timeline. Far better.
If we go back to Aaron Rodgers and winning MVP at age 37, wouldn’t he have ranked below Deshaun Watson in 2020 based on a three-year timeline? Wouldn’t he have ranked below Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff?
In fact, Rodgers has won more playoff games since 2020 than Herbert. He’s won one.
If there’s anyone who would expect Stafford to play for several more years at a high level, it’s his head coach Sean McVay. The extension and the commitment to Stafford for as long as he wants to be a Ram shows that despite drafting Ty Simpson, L.A. believes there’s multiple MVP-caliber seasons ahead. Is Stafford on a one-year timeline “What the hell kind of a question is that?”
This could be near the end for Stafford, but it’s not guaranteed
If I’m drafting quarterbacks for the next three years only, I’m going to target quarterbacks who I think can win one Super Bowl over the next three years, and not necessarily getting greedier than that. I’m not worried about what will happen in 2027 or 2028, if I feel very confident that the quarterback is a favorite to win the Super Bowl in 2026.
And I’m certainly not worried about 2029 if the goal is a three-year timeline. It might be sane to take Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams over Matthew Stafford if we’re building a franchise from scratch in 2026, but the window only goes from now until 2028 and few active quarterbacks in the NFL have even won a Super Bowl.
Stafford is one of them. He just won MVP. He’s got the same advantages at his disposal next season, he’s been extended through 2027, and there’s recent evidence that quarterbacks of his caliber can play until they’re 42 or 43, if not later. The NFL has put so many guardrails in place to protect quarterbacks that it’s up to him how long he plays for.
Whether it’s one year or three years, clearly Stafford is a top-5 quarterback compared to the flawed signal callers who have been entering the NFL recently.
But to be fair, Matthew Stafford is not someone you get to watch in the preseason.
