The story of Trevor Rogers in 2025 is so incredible that it requires us as fans to overcome disbelief in a way we’ve never been asked to before. In his relatively short time with the Orioles, he had always
been terrible. It was hard to imagine a world where he wouldn’t be terrible. And then, all of a sudden, he was great. He was great for so long that it began to feel real. So the only question is, who will Trevor Rogers be in the future?
When the Orioles traded for Rogers at the 2024 trade deadline, the response was underwhelming. And why wouldn’t it be? Rogers was years removed from his impressive rookie season with the Marlins, and came to the Orioles with a 4.53 ERA and an injury history. Called upon to shore up the rotation, Rogers instead allowed 16 runs in 19 innings before being demoted to Triple-A to finish out the season. He made five starts there that were also bad.
Given all that, it’s safe to say no one was especially put out when Rogers started the 2025 season on the injured list with a dislocated knee. He was all but written off after his terrible 2024 and only earned mention among Orioles fans on the internet when complaining about the impressive season Kyle Stowers was having with Miami. Not only had the Orioles lost the trade, they had embarrassed themselves.
When Rogers returned in late May to begin his rehab stint, he did little to change anyone’s mind. Scouting a box score from the minors, especially one of a rehabbing major leaguer, is dangerous. There is little way to know what is actually going on. But Rogers did not get good results, with an ERA of almost eight in five starts. Very few fans were interested in seeing what Rogers could do at the Major League level. Luckily for Rogers and the Orioles, fans have no say.
Rogers made his 2025 Orioles debut on May 24th in game two of a doubleheader against the Red Sox. He did not look like any version of Trevor Rogers we had seen in Baltimore. He allowed just two hits in 6.2 shutout innings. He didn’t walk a batter. He struck out five. The Red Sox could do nothing with him and had just one barrel out of 22 batters. The Orioles won, 2-1. It was an impressive start, but just one start. Not enough to establish confidence in Rogers.
As the the extra player in the doubleheader, Rogers was optioned back to Triple-A after the game. His follwoing starts in Norfolk were better, and he was recalled to Baltimore for good on June 18th.
In that start on June 18th, Rogers allowed eight baserunners in 2.1 innings and was pulled after throwing 71 pitches. I recapped that awful game, and I remember thinking it was typical. But as it turns out, it was not typical. Beginning with his next start on June 23rd, he kicked off one of the most impressive runs of starting pitching I have ever seen.
Over 15 starts, starting with eight shutout innings against the Rangers, Rogers pitched to a 1.19 ERA. He never allowed more than two runs in a single start, and that only happened three times. He pitched at least six innings for 10 straight starts. For the season, his strikeout numbers were up (24.3%), his walks were down (6.9%). He allowed just 70 hits in 109.2 innings. He excelled in chase % and ground ball %.
Rogers’s final start of the season came on September 26th against the Yankees, and it was his one true clunker of the year. He allowed six runs in just three innings, which raised his ERA from 1.35 to 1.81.
Rogers racked up a 5.5 bWAR in just 18 starts, just over half of a full season. He finished the season with an ERA of 1.81 and a WHIP of 0.903. His HR/9 of 0.5 was his best since 2021, his rookie season. Batters hit just .179 against him. If he put these numbers up over the full season, he would have been Cy Young. He was awarded the Most Valuable Oriole, and rightly so.
Just like that, it looks like the Orioles have a legitimate top-of-the-rotation starter. Their starting pitching for 2026 is currently suspect. But if Rogers can pitch anywhere near like he did in 2025, that is a huge boost from what we all expected would be the case.
Here is the thing, though. Rogers has never pitched like that before. The Orioles are smarter than I am, and I know Mike Elias and crew don’t expect Rogers to pitch to a 1.81 ERA in 2026. But I still worry that there is this idea that now they have an Ace in Rogers and it will affect how they approach improving the starting rotation in 2026.
None of that is Rogers’s fault, of course, and he deserves all the praise he gets for his season in 2025. And, let’s face it, he could be considerably worse in 2026 than he was this year and still be a very successful pitcher. This gives me hope. I am looking forward to seeing what Trevor Rogers can do over a full season of pitching. And that’s something I never would have imagined myself saying after the start to his Orioles career.
