I am currently in Gettysburg, Pa. This is my third trip to the battlefield. I’ve led a tour here, I’ve been here as a kid and an adult, I really enjoy the place and the history. I say this to say that an anecdote from the 4th of July 1863 came to mind as I made the drive over from snowy (yes, already) Cleveland. James Longstreet received a very kindly note from Union lines informing him that he had been wounded and captured but was receiving the very best care they could offer. Longstreet responded
back, after watching his corps be decimated on back to back days, that he appreciated it, but he was actually and surprisingly, alive and well.
You wonder if Richard Pitino may have the same reaction currently. Xavier hasn’t lost, per se, but… some of Pitino’s friends who watched what has happened in the first two games must surely be wondering if he’s wounded and needing care. The offense is staggering, the defense is porous, and the reinforcements may be coming, but they aren’t exactly on the horizon. Like Longstreet, Pitino must surely find himself having to assure his friends he’s ok.
The last reference to Gettysburg is that the head coach of Santa Clara, tonight’s opponent, is Herb Sendek. Sendek was in grade school when the battle was fought and probably traded Civil War general cards with his friends growing up. (How many George Meades to get a Phil Kearney?) The Broncos are sort of 2-0 this year with a win in a non-D1 game and a hiding of a McNeese team that, in some guise, beat Clemson in the tournament last season. Some of the players are still there, but Will Wade is not, because he is at NC State, where Sendek was in 1997.
Team Fingerprint
Santa Clara has only one game of data, but they shot pretty horribly and turned the ball over too much. They made up for that by grabbing nearly 60% of their misses. Preventing teams from collecting their own misfires has been a strength for Xavier so far this season, but that may be tested here. The Broncos may not have shot well from anywhere else, but they were dangerous behind the arc. They also took 31 threes, so they clearly aren’t shy. They also played that game glacially slowly.
Defensively, Santa Clara defended the arc well and the inside poorly. They didn’t so much force turnovers as capitalize on McNeese predilection for committing them in droves. In addition to keeping McNeese from shooting threes well, the Broncos ran them off the line aggressively. They clearly don’t want to get beaten from deep.
Players
The leading returner for the Broncos is 6’7” wing Elijah Mahi who leads the team at 16.5 ppg through the first two. Mahi does most of his work off the dribble drive, where he has been extremely effective this young season, but also shot 43% from deep last season in 76 attempts. Among starters, the second option is guard Christian Hammond, who has pulled down 8 defensive rebounds in each of the first two games to go with his 12.5 points and 3.0 assists. His shooting line so far is .474/.286/.625, which drags down his efficiency numbers, but his value on defensive end has shone so far. Junior forward Jake Ensminger has been the KenPom MVP of both of the first two games this season, despite only averaging 11.5 points. He’s also averaged 6.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists and has yet to turn the ball over or miss a two point shot. Over the past two seasons, Ensminger has operated as more of a pick-and-pop 4 and shoots about 60% if his shots from three where he has posted a 29% mark for his career. Freshman Allen Graves is the center and, while he has been excellent on the glass at both ends, he is shooting just 27% from inside the arc this season. Senior Brenton Knapper has moved from being a very effective backup point guard last season to being a somewhat less effective starting point guard this season. His main strength is distribution and ball security, which he is still doing well, but his shooting line has dropped from .531/.429/.667 a year ago to .211/.154/1.000 this season. He splits his time pretty evenly with former Villanova recruit Sash Gavalyugov, who is second on the team in scoring at 13.5 per game, has shot 47% from deep, and has yet to assist a basket but had 4 turnovers against McNeese. The other perimeter option off the bench is 6’8” wing Thierry Darlan, who has chipped in 8.5/8.0/1.0 but has, like Gavalyugov, struggled with turnovers. the tallest player likely to feature is 6’10” freshman center Francis Chukwudebelu, currently sports a gaudy 10.4 block rate in 11 minutes against DI opposition.
Three Questions
- Can Xavier guard a perimeter scorer? In the opener, Marist’s Rhyjon Blackwell had the best game of his quarter century on the planet, dropping 24 on an ORtg of 136. The Muskies turned it around exactly zero percent against Le Moyne, allowing Trent Mosquera to post 20 points and make 6 threes. Xavier has played two home games against teams that will have no bearing on the at-large picture at any point this year and still haven’t had a game-leading scorer yet. Greater challenges await, and the X defense hasn’t done much to inspire confidence that they’re up to them.
- Who will step up as a second scorer? Malik Messina-Moore leads the team with 16.5 PPG so far this year. Tre Carroll, Roddie Anderson III, and Jovan Milicevic are all tied for second behind him at 11 PPG each; they’re shooting an aggregate 32.1% from the floor. Xavier has 140 points in 137 possessions at home against two low-majors teams; that isn’t going to cut it. Having multiple reliable options is an absolute must to keep this from being a painfully long season.
- Can Xavier show up against a decent team? I didn’t want this game to be one where we’ll learn something about this team, but it’s shaping up to be. The Muskies have played two opponents that should have been out and out buy games and made them both look like February conference battles. Another performance like those two will cost the home team that perfect goose egg in the loss column. Like it or not, a home game against Santa Clara is going to be a bellwether for this season.
Three Keys
- Get Tre Carroll going. Xavier’s big wing will likely have some work to do matching up with Elijah Mahi for stretches of this game, but the Muskies desperately need him to start being the offensive force he was brought in to be. He was very efficient in decent volume last year at Florida Atlantic, but he hasn’t had his eye in at all so far, averaging 11 PPG on an EFG% of 36%. He leads the team in usage rate; they need him to start providing a better return for all those possessions.
- Force the ball inside the arc. Xavier is shooting better from beyond the arc (39.2%) than within it (37.7%) this year. That’s obviously not going to continue all season, but it’s wild to see on a KenPom page. You just have to be able to score twos efficiently to compete in basketball, even if you’re taking a high volume approach from three. Whether by slashing or through the post, it has to improve.
- Turn Santa Clara over. The Broncos were in a fight with McNeese at the half in their last game, but they came out of the locker room with a 14-4 run to wrest control of the game from their opponent. McNeese forced 15 turnovers (22.4% TO rate) on the game, but crucially had zero during that run. Santa Clara clicks over nicely if they can keep hold of the ball. The Pitino Era Muskies have forced a lot of turnovers so far; it would behoove them to continue that trend.
