Happy Boxing Day, everyone! The paucity of games the last few weeks due to Finals and the holiday break has delayed this normal column, but since our last update Purdue has gotten a nice boost from a blowout win over a ranked Auburn team and Texas Tech upsetting previously undefeated Duke to make that win even stronger. It now looks as though Purdue will head back in conference play having gone 10-1 against one of its most difficult non-conference schedules ever. The sole blemish, a 23 point home
loss to Iowa State, serves mostly as a gigantic win for the Cyclones more than a bad loss for Purdue.
The Boilermakers have gotten what hey needed from this slate. It has set the stage for another No. 1 seed, as Purdue has two excellent neutral court non-conference wins and an excellent true road win. Marquette and Memphis have been disappointing, but Akron’s computer numbers are giving the Zips a nice little boost to make up for it. As long as Purdue wins the Big Ten it will probably receive a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. It will battle Michigan for hte preferred St. Louis-Chicago path to Indy, but we’re Purdue. The fans are going to show up even if it was plaeyd on the moon.
It should also be noted that Purdue’s road conference schedule now looks mighty tough with Wisconsin, USC, UCLA, Indiana, Nebraska, and Iowa all spending some time in the top 25 this year.
Purdue Boilermakers Profile
Record: 11-1, 2-0 Big Ten
NET: 7
KenPom: 2
Bracket Matrix Consensus Seed: 2
Tier 1 Wins (KenPom) Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75: 17 Alabama (Away), 26 Texas Tech (Neutral), 37 Auburn (Neutral)
Tier 2 Wins (KenPom): Home 31-75 Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135: 55 Akron (Home), 77 Memphis (Neutral)
Tier 1 Wins (NET) Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75: 19 Alabama (Away), 24 Texas Tech (Neutral), 41 Auburn (Neutral)
Tier 2: Home 31-75 (NET) Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135: 51 Akron
Bad Losses (Sub-100 NET or KenPom): None
Evansville Purple Aces (4-9, 0-2 MVC) – NET 271, KenPom 274 – The Aces are off to a slow start int he Valley, losing to Belmont 83-78 and Drake 66-65. They are currently on a four game losing streak, but two losses were by a single point.
Oakland Golden Grizzlies (6-7, 2-0 Horizon) – NET 134, KenPom 138 – The win over Oakland is currently rating better than a conference road win at Rutgers, but that comes from a strength of schedule that includes Purdue, Houston, Michigan, and Michigan State, who are all currently in the top 10. This team is probably the early favorite in the Horizon League
Oakland Golden Grizzlies (6-7, 2-0 Horizon) – NET 134, KenPom 138 – The first time this year people had great fears about Purdue was when the Boilers briefly trailed Oakland in the second half. Now the Golden Grizzlies have a win over Purdue (Fort Wayne edition) 101-92 to start conference play. They followed that up with a decent 98-97 win over Toledo.
Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3, 0-0 SEC) – NET 19, KenPom 17 – The Tide are not the juggernaut they were last season, but they have a very nice win over Illinois on a neutral floor. Their losses have come to Purdue, Gonzaga, and Arizona. On Monday they have a real interesting home game agaisnt a feisty Yale squad that could challenge for an at large bid.
Akron Zips (9-3, 1-0 MAC – NET 40, KenPom 55) – Akron picked up a wild 115-100 neutral court loss to Murray State, but this is still a strong mid-major that will be a favorite to win the MAC auto bid. With only MAC and non-DI games left there is not much of a chance to build an at large profile, but they longer they go undefeated in league play the better case they build.
Memphis Tigers (5-7, 0-0 American) – NET 114, KenPom 77 – An 88-67 win over Alabama State broke a three-gme losing streak, but the Togers continue to be a team that is just a level below their competition. The three losses were to Louisville, Vanerbilt, and at Mississippi State before that victory. They are 1-6 agaisnt top 100 NET teams.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-3, 0-0 Big 12) – NET 24, KenPom 26 – The Red Raiders suffered a seven point loss to Arkansas, but their comeback 82-81 win over Duke was a major upset and huge victory for their profile. They have one more tune-up vs. Wagner before starting play in the Big 12.
Eastern Illinois Panthers (4-8, 1-1 Ohio Valley) – NET 322, KenPom 321 – EIU got its first conference win over SIU-Edwardsville 76-72 in overtime, which is significant because SIU-Edwardsville is the defending OVC champion and NCAA team.
Iowa State Cyclones (12-0, 0-0 Big 12) – Net 5, KenPom 3 – The Cyclones have a season-long edge on Purdue for a top seed unless they fall off, and they should by virtue of their big win in Mackey Arena. They followed it with a narro 66-62 win over Iowa, a team Purdue will have to play twice.
Marquette Golden Eagles (5-8, 0-2 Big East) – NET 180, KenPom 115 – It is officially a down year for Marquette, as they have now dropped four straight to Wisconsin, Purdue, Georgetown, and Creighton. Their at large chances are virtually nil, as they are currently 0-8 against the top three NET tiers.
Auburn Tigers (8-4, 0-0 SEC) – NET 41, KenPom 37 – Like Alabama, the win over Auburn is not quite as god as it would have been ayear ago, but it is still a very, very good win. The Tigers also have four losses t top 10 teams in Purdue, Houston, Michigan, and Arizona. In fact, it would not be a shock to see those four teams as No. 1 seeds.
Kent State Golden Flashes (10-1, 1-0 MAC) – NET 146, KenPom 132 – Kent State randomly played out at Portland and lost 88-78, then whipped back across the country to win at UMass 69-59 ten days later. I would say they are Akron’s top challenger in the MAC.
Likely NCAA Teams: Alabama, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Auburn
Possible NCAA teams (Could win Autobids): Akron, Kent State, Oakland
Could play to the Bubble: Akron
