Good morning, Camden Chatters.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the Orioles aren’t a very good team. No, it’s true. Film at 11.
If this West Coast road trip turns out particularly poorly for the Birds and knocks them further out of the playoff picture, the O’s could be forced to reckon with the idea of being sellers at the trade deadline next month. It’s a grim prospect that most Birds fans certainly were hoping the team wouldn’t have to deal with for a second consecutive season.
Mind you, it’s
not a decision that the Orioles’ front office has to make at this exact moment. They don’t even have to make it at the end of this road trip. But the baseball calendar is moving ever forward and the O’s have about six weeks to prove they’re not a lost cause before the Aug. 3 deadline arrives.
It’s too early to give up hope just yet. But just as a hypothetical, let’s say the worst case scenario plays out and it becomes obvious that the postseason math isn’t going to add up, making the Orioles sellers at the deadline. What exactly would an O’s sell-off look like?
Last year it wasn’t difficult to figure out ahead of time which players would be shipped away. The Orioles had a number of pending free agents, and nearly all of them were indeed traded at the deadline, including Cedric Mullins, Ryan O’Hearn, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, and Charlie Morton. The O’s also flipped a few players who still had another season of team control — Ramón Laureano, Ramón Urías, and Andrew Kittredge — to increase their overall prospect haul. And perhaps the most out-of-left-field trade was the Orioles dealing their primary setup man, Bryan Baker, to the Rays, even with 3.5 years of team control remaining. Mike Elias was willing to move any non-core member of the roster if he liked the return enough.
It stands to reason that the O’s would like to follow the same trade recipe if they have another sell-off this year, but it’s complicated. Most of their pending free agents have some issues that might deflate their value. Taylor Ward has been OBP and doubles machine, but his 36-homer power from 2025 has dried up and he’s sitting on just three dingers this year. He’ll still have value and is probably the Birds’ most likely candidate to get dealt, but he’s not going to fetch the kind of prospect haul that will rebuild the organization.
Examining the other free agents to be, there’s Trevor Rogers, who’s sitting on a 5.86 ERA after a massive regression from 2025. He could continue to boost his value if he pitches well between now and Aug. 3, but his career has been so erratic that it’s hard to expect much in return. (Maybe Kyle Stowers. Too soon?) Chris Bassitt has next to zero trade value right now, thanks to his 5.27 ERA and his current back injury. In the bullpen, there’s closer Ryan Helsley, who has barely made an impact due to his month-and-a-half stint on the IL. He also has a $14 million player option for 2027 that the acquiring team might not want to get stuck with. Andrew Kittredge could be on the trade block again. Keegan Akin is a pending free agent, but right now he’s barely pitching well enough to avoid being DFA’d.
Other possibilities for trades are unheralded players who are a year or two away from free agency — your Yennier Canos, your Tyler Wellses, your Leody Taveri. Again, don’t expect any blue-chip prospects in return for those guys.
Would the Orioles dare make a shocking, gigantic trade at the deadline involving one of their heretofore core players, like Adley Rutschman or even Gunnar Henderson? Let me tell you now: it ain’t happening. It’s not necessarily that Elias would never trade those guys, but if he did, he’d almost certainly prefer to do it in the offseason rather than rush into a deadline trade with such seismic ramifications. (There’s also the question of how long Elias will even be the person making these decisions, but that’s a topic for another time.)
So if you’re expecting some kind of massive trade bonanza that will bring in a boatload of young talent to the Orioles, well, don’t get your hopes up. But if we’re lucky, the O’s will play so well leading up to the deadline that any thought of a sell-off will become a moot point.
Links
Ranking top 2026 MLB trade deadline candidates: Skubal, more – ESPN
Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan analyze some MLB players possibly on the move at the deadline, and Taylor Ward makes their list. They peg him as 75% likely to be traded, for whatever that’s worth.
In my mind the only thing that can realistically save the Orioles’ season is Gunnar Henderson returning to his All-Star form. If he’s planning to do so, he sure is taking his sweet time, though last night was a good start.
Since May 1, the O’s Blaze Alexander is one of baseball’s best hitters – Steve Melewski
Turns out the Orioles do have a hot-hitting shortstop in their lineup. It’s just not the one they expected.
Orioles birthdays and history
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday! Two ex-Orioles were born on this day: catcher Caleb Joseph (40) and first baseman Carlos Méndez (52).
On this date in 2001, Orioles legend Cal Ripken Jr. announced he’d be retiring at the end of the season, officially closing the book on an epic 21-year career that changed baseball forever. Cal’s farewell tour saw him lavished with gifts and praise at every ballpark he played in for the rest of the season, capped by his unforgettable finale in Baltimore on Oct. 6. Hard to believe it was 25 years ago.
And on this day in 2007, the O’s fired manager Sam Perlozzo after the team’s 29-40 start to the season. Perlozzo, who had taken the reins in 2005, amassed a 122-164 record during his managerial tenure. He was the fourth of six consecutive Orioles managers who failed to guide the team to any winning seasons. That was a pretty bleak time.
Random Orioles game of the day
On June 18, 2003, the Orioles lost to the Blue Jays, 6-2. Future Hall of Famer Roy Halladay limited the Orioles to two runs in seven innings, with a Jay Gibbons homer his only blemish. All three O’s pitchers — Omar Daal, Willis Roberts, and B.J. Ryan — gave up runs, including a two-run single by former Oriole Mike Bordick. The loss dropped the Orioles to 32-36.
