Past summaries:
- So far, so good through mid-April
- Even better in late April
- May-be they’re just really good
- Late May just good, rather than absurdly awesome
- A June swoon so far
- Awful
How did the Braves do recently?
The Braves went 6-6 in July before the All-Star Break. 6-6 is… okay. The Braves went 6-5 in the first half of June, well before any alarm bells sounded. Lots of teams go .500ish in a short stretch. The Dodgers were 5-6! The Brewers were 7-6! The Marlins and Phillies both went 6-5, gaining just a half-game on the Braves. Meanwhile, a bunch of previously-moribund squads did really well. It’s 12ish games, anything can happen.
Is going 6-6 a springboard for recovering from June’s plunge
into the abyssal depths of teamwide non-production? Well, ehhhhhh.
On the one hand, the Braves finished eighth in position player fWAR over the first part of July. Yay, the offense returned. If you recall, my one big fulcrum point is this: if the Braves hit like a top-ten team from July-on, they’ll make the playoffs. If they don’t, they won’t. They did in these 12 games, right? So, what’s the concern?
Well, the concern is that despite a better (12th in wOBA/wRC+) set of outputs in July, their inputs were still woeful: 21st in xwOBA, with a .299 mark. For a team that finished 29th in MLB in June in xwOBA (.283), this was not exactly heartening. Yeah, they faked it to a 6-6 record in July. The needed improvement on a team-wide wasn’t actually there if you peek even a tiny bit under the surface.
Did the pitching do anything to help? No, no it did not. Recall that in April, May, and June, the team’s pitching fWAR ranks went from 10th, to 13th, to 19th. In July so far? 21st. 18th in ERA-, 23rd in FIP-, and 21st in xFIP-. The bullpen continued to be a rock, finishing second in MLB in fWAR in this pre-All Star Break-part-of-July stretch. But the rotation was sub-replacement level.
Game-by-game odds-wise, going 6-6 is exactly what was expected. WAR-wins-wise, 6-6 is also exactly what was expected. There was nothing all that weird in these 12 games… except that the Braves massively outhit their xwOBA and yeah they probably need to hit better to have a shot of keeping a playoff spot.
How are the Braves doing for the season?
The season position for the Braves right now is really weird, and deserves some space of its own.
The residuals from early in the season are banked. The Braves have MLB’s fourth-best record, fifth-highest playoff odds, and seventh-highest championship odds. They have a two-game lead in the division, and are five games “up” on holding a playoff spot.
On the season, they are 16th in position player value, including 12th in offensive inputs, somewhere between 17th-19th in offensive outputs depending on what you count, and eighth in defensive value. They are 15th in pitching value, though fifth in ERA- to go with being 15th in FIP- and 12 in xFIP-. The rotation is 23rd in fWAR, but the bullpen ranks first overall.
- In particular, the rotation ranks ninth, 24th, and 15th in ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-; while
- The bullpen ranks first, first, and third, respectively.
The FanGraphs playoff odds have a lot of “modes.” The default mode, the one I and everyone else tends to reference, involves using Steamer/ZiPS and forecasting the rest of the season based on how players are projected to play. This is fairly slow to integrate how players have actually played in 2026, because half a season isn’t enough to really sway projections. There are lots of other methods, too, and here’s basically what it looks like in terms of the Braves’ projected end-of-season wins and current playoff odds:
- Default: 90 wins, 91 percent
- FG WAR (my understanding is this uses performance-to-date for this season in terms of production, not accumulation of wins in the standings): 89, 88 percent
- ATC (a different, meta-projection system): 91, 93 percent
- The BAT X (a different, fantasy-focused projection system): 89, 88 percent
- OOPSY (again, another projection system): 90, 91 percent
- Season-to-date (actual wins-in-standings to date mapped across future games): 93, 88 percent
- Coin flip (all games are decided randomly for the future): 89, 83 percent
Given that there are only 67 games left, there is not a huge chunk of time left for the difference between how the Braves are projected to play (85-win pace, accounting for injuries), and how they have produced so far (82-win pace). They are fortunate that their current record is so far above their production, as I talked about in Monday’s daily question post. These things may not have substantial implications for the rest of the season unless the Braves completely fall apart as they did in June again… but, fundamentally, they’ve gotta do something to pull themselves to at least sustainably treading water. That could be offensive improvement to a decent xwOBA, that could be pitching that leans more heavily on the bullpen to remove the win-bleeding from weaker parts of the rotation, or a host of other things, like someone going on an insane heater. It could even be something not sustainable that bails the team out, like a freaky-low HR/FB from its pitchers or persistent xwOBA overperformance from the hitters, though those are harder to bank on. The bar for the rest of the season isn’t that high, but the Braves still need to figure out how to get from where they are to clearing it.
How are the hitters doing?
This sort of spread is kinda-sorta why I had the bubble charts in there originally, even if they weren’t always informative.
A bunch of guys were productive over these last 12 games: Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Mauricio Dubon, Mike Yastrzemski, and even Jim Jarvis and Joey Bart. But, of those guys, only Baldwin, Yastrzemski, and Bart actually did the hitting thing well. As noted above, a bunch of guys (Albies, Dubon, Jarvis) just got really, really lucky. Austin Riley and Dominic Smith continue to drag down everything with their performance. The Braves may feel like they want to keep giving Riley rope, but it’s past time to do anything other than starting Smith.
For the season as a whole, the wOBAs and xwOBAs are closer (which, duh), though Albies’ high-wire act is what it is. Leaving aside the injured members of the position player corps for the time being, this is a team being driven by Harris, Olson, and Dubon, while the other guys are largely hoping to produce enough that the misery of having Riley and Smith eat PAs doesn’t fully careen the team into disaster.
Kinda funny: in July so far (left side) the Braves largely avoided anyone in the bottom-right quadrant, but also had way too many guys in the upper-left. And then Riley and Smith hanging out bottom-left, sigh. For the season as a whole (right side), you can basically get the narrative of the season: three guys are (were?) carrying the team, Albies is very fortunate, and a bunch of guys have been very blah, led by Riley’s issues.
Something silly: Matt Olson leads Braves position players in WPA in July. He’s also second on the team in PAs in that span, and has been a positive bat, so yeah, sure, whatever, okay. But then, second on the team? Eli White, who didn’t even have enough PAs to appear in the tables/charts above. Braves, man.
How are the pitchers doing?
The table above doesn’t even include Bryce Elder’s disastrous start in July… and also kind of summarizes why everyone says the Braves need multiple pitches. Grant Holmes and JR Ritchie did okay in July in two outings… but their xFIPs are still very meh. Lopez had a nice few outings, but his season stats are also meh, and that includes a bunch of time as a reliever where you’d figure he would’ve had better peripherals. Hurston Waldrep has too few innings to really talk about, but even those few innings got him sent down. And, while Chris Sale is very awesome, he was not awesome in aggregate over the last couple of weeks, though a rain-shortened outing ate into his ability to bail his own poor start out.
From this table, it looks like that the minimum the Braves need is two guys who aren’t actually playing well, but their “poor pitching” is more akin to Holmes’ season-to-date performance. Of course, forcing a five-man rotation isn’t the only way to cover pitching innings, and the Braves gave us a brief glimpse of that when using Danny Young to open for Ritchie on the final day of the “first half,” but it remains to be seen whether they’ll get creative instead of, or in addition to, adding pitching from outside the organization over the next two-ish weeks.
Beyond that, what can you really say? Dylan Lee continues to be fantabulous. The other left-handed Dylan (Dodd) is also having a nice season so far, with a 56 ERA-, 86 FIP-, and 92 xFIP-. Dodd seems like a fine guy-to-use-like-Tyler-Kinley-if-you’ve-now-acknowledged-Kinley-isn’t-good. Grant Holmes is in the midst of a silly “heater” where he has a 23 ERA-, but a 100 FIP- and a 108 xFIP-, over his last four outings. He’s only actually pitched particularly well once, but he’s gotten incredibly fortunate twice, which is preferable to just getting smashed without mercy once batter number ten rolls around. Holmes won’t keep that up, but so long as he keeps faking it until the Braves make it, they’ll take it. Rhyming!
Anyway, not the most sanguine biweekly recap, but it is what it is. The Braves need to hit much better, and they’ll be hunky dory. If they don’t, though, you’ll be hearing the complaints about the pitching reach a fever… pitch.
