It is snowing. Real snow. Thankfully I don’t have to leave the house for a couple of hours. I don’t know how it is anywhere else, but the drivers here have all summer to forget how to drive in the snow. Then
the first snow of the year happens, and it is like we don’t drive in this every winter.
We’ve been doing this for several years now. We reviewed some of the top free agents, as rated by Keith Law in The Athletic and Ben Clemens at FanGraphs, using the contracts FanGraphs suggests they will receive, and asked if we should sign them.
Edwin Díaz is a 31 (will be 32 by the start of the 2026 season) right-handed reliever. Last year, he had a 1.63 ERA and 28 saves (with three blown saves). Batters hit .164/.258/.244 against him with four home runs. Career he has 252 saves and a 2.82 ERA.
Keith Law said:
Díaz will head to free agency after declining the two-year, $37 million player option in the huge contract the Mets gave him after the 2022 season. The 2025 season was his best since he signed the last deal and one of the best of his career, with a strikeout rate of 38 percent that was the second-best among MLB relievers last year, behind only Mason Miller. His velocity has been down since he missed the 2023 season, dropping from 99.1 mph in 2022 to 97.2 mph last year, with a similar drop on his slider, but both pitches remain plus with high whiff rates. The fastball gets tremendous run, and the slider is short but very deceptive, and even with a higher hard-hit rate last year (39.7 percent, his highest since 2019), he was still very effective because he missed more than enough bats. His only significant injury was as big a fluke as it gets, when he blew out his knee in a celebration during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, and perhaps that year off from pitching had a silver lining in giving his shoulder and elbow a break. I am skeptical of any reliever going into their 30s, and if Díaz loses any more stuff, in any dimension, he’s going to be a lot less effective in a big hurry. He’ll get way too long a contract, as the market continues to do with all capital-C Closers, even with the dismal history of four- and five-year deals for relievers.
Clemens:
Díaz stands out from the crowd of relievers hitting the market this winter. He’s one of the best closers in the game, and he’s still at his peak; this season was the third time he’s eclipsed 60 innings with an ERA below 2.00. If you want to lock down your bullpen, Díaz is the best option for 2026 – and probably for 2027 and 2028, too, which is going to make him very attractive to every GM who thinks their team’s window is open for the next few years. He’s even been remarkably durable; the only extended absence of his career came courtesy of a fluke injury in the WBC that cost him the entire 2023 season.
Clemens thinks he’ll get a three-year contract at $25 million a year, for a total of $75 million. But if he gets less than four years, I would be amazed. Lets go with four years at $25 million (I really think he will get five years, but lets split the difference).
