Let’s face it: odds probably do not mean much to Ravens fans at this point. Last year, Baltimore entered 14 games as favorites and won just half of them.
That pattern is likely to play out once again this year given the Ravens’ early slate of opponents, starting with the Colts in Week 1. Baltimore is favored by 3.5 points heading into Indianapolis (via FanDuel Sportsbook), indicating plenty of confidence in Jesse Minter’s head coaching debut.
The Colts are largely running it back with their 2025 squad,
so last year’s tendencies can offer some insights into their plans for Sunday. The offense primarily operates out of the shotgun, relying on running back Jonathan Taylor to churn yards in the run game and suck linebackers in for play action shots to the intermediate areas of the field. Quarterback Daniel Jones rarely pushed the ball downfield, throwing deep balls less than 10% of the time (via Pro Football Focus). Most of those targets went to wide receiver Alec Pierce, the NFL’s back-to-back leader in yards per reception; beyond him, Indianapolis lacks another deep threat.
That should lead the Ravens to deploy some bracket coverage against Pierce to prevent him from taking the top off the defense. Minter’s three-safety looks will also allow the secondary to shift the coverage picture post-snap. Look out for Baltimore to bait Jones by showing a 1-on-1 matchup against Pierce pre-snap only for Malaki Starks or Jaylinn Hawkins to fly back and cover a potential shot downfield.
The Colts’ defensive coordinator is a familar foe: Lou Anarumo, who previously held the same position in Cincinnati from 2019 to 2024. The Ravens offense largely found success against his Bengals defenses during his tenure, able to control games on the ground and keep up with Joe Burrow in a shootout when needed. But Anarumo’s ability to disguise his coverages and pressure packages can attack the Ravens offense in two key ways.
First, it will demand Jackson to be on the same page with a revamped offensive line that features a brand-new interior trio, including center Jovaughn Gwyn making his first start. He will already have his hands full with Colts defensive tackles DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, but he also has to help Jackson read the defense and communicate adjustments to the rest of the line.
Jackson will also have to be careful not to fall into Anarumo’s coverage traps. New offensive coordinator Declan Doyle has worked to re-establish the Ravens’ quick passing game with an emphasis on Jackson’s footwork and timing as he goes through his progression. But just as Minter will try to bait-and-switch Jones, Anarumo will do the same against Jackson.
This could become a particularly interesting battle when the Ravens go under center, which has been another of Doyle’s early focal points. Baltimore will no doubt use running back Derrick Henry to set up play-action shots to wide receiver Zay Flowers on his signature deep dig routes. Anarumo can respond with a two-high safety look but sending one of them to buzz the middle of the field. But that will only be possible if his front can stop the Ravens’ ground game, putting pressure on undersized linebackers Jaylon Carlies and Akeem Davis-Gaither to step up and fit the run. Otherwise, the Colts will have to use their safeties in run support, which should give Flowers more room to operate over the middle.
Given that this is his first game in Doyle’s system – and his first game back at 100% after last year’s injuries – the two-time MVP could lean on his legs on Sunday as he gets settled in the offense. Some of his most dazzling extended plays came against Anarumo’s Bengals, partially because the defense forced him to hold onto the ball.
