On Saturday, the Illini face a familiar foe in a familiar spot.
Bret Bielema returns to his old stomping grounds. He revisits the scene of his greatest success as a head coach.
The story is well-known that Bielema won multiple conference championships as the head man at Wisconsin. He capitalized on Michigan and Ohio State having down periods to enhance his own resume.
While winning a conference championship at Illinois always seemed like a thought exercise from the land of make believe and magic, it
is year five. Illinois is about to complete its third winning season under Bielema, which is more than the previous three head coaches had combined.
Despite their struggles, Wisconsin still has plenty of fight left in them. They upset the same Washington Huskies that gave the Illini a dirt nap in Seattle. They scared an Indiana squad that may still score two more touchdowns this weekend against the Illini squad the decimated in Bloomington.
So with the Badgers on the horizon, how is the health of the program overall? Let’s dive in.
Coaching staff is broadly in a good spot, but limited.
Bret Bielema has a deep history of hiring and promoting coaches. He’s made multiple controversial hires, and hit a few home runs in the past five seasons.
Hiring Ryan Walters was a clear home run. The former Colorado quarterback/defensive back was a P4 head coach after two years in Champaign. Bielema pivoted to an internal replacement, selecting his former player Aaron Henry over OLB coach Kevin Kane, who had coordinator experience at SMU.
Results have been mixed and varied. Henry has demonstrated high human character and resiliency in the shadow of personal and professional heartbreak. His ability to rally his charges to step up has been admirable. But at no point has Henry looked like the all-world coordinator Walters was. This season, Illinois’ most experienced, talented group, the secondary, has a total of two interceptions. That’s unacceptable.
Henry’s leadership and intangibles perhaps set him up to be a better head coach than a tactical assassin coordinator. Bielema helping Henry find a head coaching job could open the door for a more impactful Xs and Os coach to step in and give Henry his chance to be the face of the program.
But to be clear, Henry will not be demoted or fired without a head coaching job. Nor should he. The defense has improved this season.
On the flip side, offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. has overseen three consecutive years of improvement. Lunney shares in the credit of the evolution of star quarterback Luke Altmyer. The Lunney/Altmyer duo has stabilized an Illini offense that has endured massive injuries in the backfield and top receiving prospects depart via the transfer portal.
With potential head coaching opportunities at Group of Five schools that line up well on paper, Lunney could be looking for his escape from Champaign. He’s a genuine head coach prospect, but he may have to take a pay cut to become a head coach due to Josh Whitman’s level of largesse and dedication. But nobody would stand in the way of Lunney pursuing his dream.
As far as position coaches, some of the weaknesses are pretty plain. Bart Miller and Robby Discher’s position groups have often underperformed. Illinois’ offensive line seems to get off to slow starts every year. And tight ends make far less of an impact than on previous Bielema squads.
Offensive line recruiting has improved with Kai Pritchard, Eddie Tuerk, and other recent commitments. But it’s simply not enough. This is a crystal clear area for significant improvement.
The tight end group has been wrecked by lack of productivity in the pass game. Massive recruiting misses (Mack Sutter, JC Anderson) will be clouds following Discher until he either departs the program or lands a big fish.
The talent roster is very good, but not ready to move to the next level.
Football can be a simple game: get a quarterback and get after the other guy’s quarterback.
Luke Altmyer and Gabe Jacas are legitimate superstars. They are the kinds of players you need to evolve.
And to their credit, both have been massive parts of Illinois’ growth in the past five years. Both have stabilized important positions with consistency and excellence.
But the rest of the roster is very good. It is the kind of roster that puts Illinois in the 2010s Iowa level of Big Ten competition. If that’s the goal, then congratulations.
But if the true North Star is to get to conference title level, this roster is not that deal. That was made clear against Washington and Indiana. Both have new-ish coaches that have made use of elite talent.
This December, Bielema will have one of his biggest challenges as Illini head coach. The portal reload this offseason will be a massive undertaking. Illinois will lose four starters on the offensive line, multiple starters in the defensive front, and Altmyer. This will require a large financial commitment and elite scouting. They can’t all be blue chippers, but some must be.
Speaking of the roster…
Prep recruiting has been more successful than portal recruiting.
Illinois is currently ranked 26th in the 247 Composite Rankings. That is Ron Zook territory in the best way possible. During early signing period, players like Nasir Rankin, Kai Pritchard, Nick Hankins, Jacob Eberhart, and Cam Thomas will provide an immediate boost of high end talent. While their ability to contribute early is dependent upon myriad factors, they certainly provide a tremendous future roster foundation.
The distant future also looks bright with the verbal commitment of 2027 superstar quarterback prospect Kamden Lopati. Holding that recruitment to signing day will be a challenge, but Art Sitkowski seems up for that challenge.
Illinois has solid geographic recruiting bases now. Cory Parker has opened up Michigan. Archie McDaniel is having great success in Texas. Justin Stepp has done an excellent job reloading wide receiver talent with players like Brayden Trimble, but his ties to SEC country are massive. Bielema and Aaron Henry have amazing relationships in Florida, while Thad Ward and Terrance Jamison have improved relationships and pipelines in St. Louis and Chicago respectively.
The arrow is pointing up overall.
This is not going to be an easy journey. But the Illini seems equipped to achieve consistent success.
And yes, perhaps the obsession with retention made it tougher to acquire talent to take this year’s roster over the top. Sure, I get the notion that this was “the year,” and it was “squandered” with a 9-3 ceiling.
To create an environment where every year has a legit shot at being “the year,” Illinois has to utilize their financial backing, scouting prowess, and fan support to continue growing the progam.
Competency breeds complacency. The latter can’t take hold.
