Almost two weeks ago, the Everton again entered the campaign’s second international break on a high following a rousing come-from-behind 2-1 victory over Oliver Glasner’s high-flying Crystal Palace, preserving the club’s unbeaten record at Hill Dickinson Stadium. It was a timely moment, as the upbeat mood resulting from a positive start to the season had dissipated on the back of a winless run of four matches.
So, a solid start to the season for Everton, who sit in a respectable eighth spot in the Premier
League table, with seven games played, ahead of what promises to be a tougher run of fixtures. Next weekend they will host Thomas Frank and his resurgent Tottenham Hotspur side – currently in third place – but first there is the small matter of a trip to the Etihad Stadium for Saturday’s game against Manchester City.
Form
Pep Guardiola and his troops experienced a (comparatively) rough time of it last term, struggling to a lowly third-place league finish, FA Cup final defeat to relative minnows Crystal Palace and an early exit from the Champions League, courtesy of a 6-3 aggregate loss to Real Madrid, in the first round of knockout games. However, rumours of a potential terminal decline under the Basque seemed a little premature, considering City closed the campaign in typical fashion, dropping only two points from their final seven league matches.
If the club had appeared complacent in preparing to defend their domestic title, spending only €25m on young winger Savinho and bringing back veteran İlkay Gündoğan from Barcelona on a free, whilst selling the likes of Julián Alvarez for €75m, then they made amends during the January transfer window. A staggering €218m was splashed on five new additions, including forward Omar Marmoush and midfielder Nico González.
Last summer, City continued with what is a substantial rebuild of their mutli-title winning side, lavishing €55m on Milan midfielder Tijjani Reijnders, €37m on Wolves fullback Rayan Aït-Nouri, €36.5m on Lyon playmaker Rayan Cherki, along with picking up young Burnley goalkeeper James Trafford (€31.2m), before relegating the 22-year-old to the role of backup a month later, by signing Italian national ‘keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma from PSG for €30m. Balancing the incomings, the club saw an exodus of players, including stalwarts in Kevin De Bruyne, Gündoğan, Kyle Walker, Ederson and Manual Akanji, along with home grown talent in Everton target James McAtee.
Initially, the campaign served to reinforce the theory that City may be a spent force, as the team lost two of their three opening matches, to Spurs at the Etihad, and on the road against Brighton. Since, they’ve gone undefeated in seven across all competitions, although not always played in a convincing fashion. Commanding wins over Manchester United, Napoli and Burnley, along with a creditable draw away at Arsenal, sit alongside a 2-2 draw at Monaco, and a tight 1-0 win at Brentford, leading into the international break. City occupy fifth spot in the table, as they await the Toffees.
Style of Play
Guardiola more or less wrote the book on controlling hyper-possession football, and it’s been the same familiar style this term — albeit with a slight nod to more direct play, when called for. They still rank fifth in control of the ball (57.6%) and are top in pass success rate, with 87.3%; only 7.0% of the team’s passes go long, even so. Along with Burnley, they attempt the fewest crosses per 90 minutes. As expected by a ball-control side who likes to make the pitch as wide as possible, their attack is extremely well balanced, favouring no particular area. City play primarily in a 4-1-4-1 formation.
They are not generating a host of chances as yet — 12.3 efforts on goal per 90, which ranks only seventh in the division, but an xG of 12.1 (third-ranked) indicates the creation of high-quality chances. City lead the goal-scoring charts, with 15, so are converting at an impressive rate. They are the highest scorers from open play, and are tied for top in goals resulting from counter-attacks. Defensively, the Citizens are permitting 10.3 efforts on their goal per 90 (seventh-ranked), and an xGA of 7.1 (fourth), which they’ve slightly overperformed in conceding six times. They’ve not shipped a goal on the counter yet this term, or from a set-piece situation.
Team Assessment
Still only 26, Donnarumma has adjusted seamlessly to the Premier League, conceding two goals in four outings from a post-shot xG of 2.2 — admittedly a small sample size. His shots saved percentage of 67.9% over the past year only puts him in the bottom 31st percentile, however, so it will be interesting to see how he performs. A centre back pairing of Rúben Dias and Joško Gvardiol have been preferred; neither are usually required to do much in the way of traditional defending. 20-year-old Nico O’Reilly has been handed the left back berth, but on the opposite flank there’s been rotation, with erstwhile midfielder Matheus Nunes the preferred option.
At the base of midfield, Rodri’s absence played a major part in disrupting City last term, and the influential Spaniard is likely to miss Everton’s visit this afternoon, with González almost certainly deputising. The 23-year-old is a solid defensive midfielder with a good range of passing, but is not at Rodri’s level. Reijnders and a rejuvenated Phil Foden will be deployed further forward. The Dutchman has added some central drive to the team, whereas Foden is back in favour following a subpar level of performance last season.
Erling Haaland leads the line, and is back to his imperious best, having fired nine league goals so far — including five in his last three appearances for his club, and a hattrick for Norway against Israel a week ago. On the left, Jeremy Doku will likely start. The Belgian has not proven a genuine goal threat yet, but is one of the quickest, more direct players in the division: he carries the ball into the opposition area 4.42 times and attempts 8.37 dribbles per 90, with a 50% success rate. On the right will be either Savio, or Bernardo Silva.
Prediction
The encouraging news emerging from David Moyes’ Friday press conference was that star defender Jarrad Branthwaite and new midfield signing Merlin Röhl have returned to training, though it seems unlikely that either would start — or figure at all in the case of Branthwaite. Michael Keane should be available, and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is back from suspension, though Jack Grealish cannot play against his parent club. Given the winger’s influence so far this term, along with the impact of substitutes Carlos Alcaraz, Tim Iroegbunam and Beto from the bench against Palace, the manager has some decisions to make.
Assuming Keane is fit, then I imagine Moyes will stick with his favoured back four, with Jake O’Brien again deployed at right back, James Garner alongside Idrissa Gueye in midfield, and Dewsbury-Hall higher up, with Iliman Ndiaye staying on the right flank, and Alcaraz fielded on the left — as was the case for most of his appearances last season. This is not an ideal use of the Argentine, but it’s much preferable to using him as a right winger, which failed badly in the opening game against Leeds United; I fear there’s a good chance that this will happen, unfortunately. I’m worried about O’Brien. The big Irishman was tortured by the quick, agile West Ham winger Crysencio Summerville, and Doku is far more dangerous.
Moyes’ record on the road against elite sides is truly dreadful – at every side he’s managed – and that is unlikely to change today. To stand any chance, Everton must sit deep and remain compact, with the wingers providing support to the full backs, but they cannot just passively invite pressure and launch the ball aimlessly on the rare occasions they possess it. The Blues have to offer a threat on the break, and to find a way to get the likes of Ndiaye, KDH and Alcaraz, who can all carry the ball well, and are somewhat press-resistant. If the visitors can find Beto in space, then the big man can run at the City defence. It’s a tough ask, but not impossible for the Toffees to pick up a point here.
Prediction: Man City 2-0 Everton
Statistics provided courtesy of fbref.com, transfermarkt.com and whoscored.com
