For those of you who have lived under a rock the last couple of months, you may not realize that the Chicago Bears have the toughest strength of schedule entering the 2026 season. The national media has let Bears fans know every chance they get to let them know that the Bears could be a regression candidate based on the challenges their schedule presents.
The Bears do indeed have the toughest schedule in the league, with their opponents having a .550 winning percentage from 2025. Each NFL season brings
significant changes, so those numbers might not mean anything, but how did teams in the Bears’ position perform with that situation? Let’s take a look.
Of the previous 9 seasons, the team with the hardest strength of schedule finished with a losing record seven of the nine times. That certainly seems concerning. Of the two teams with a winning record, only one finished with double-digit wins; that was the 2023 Eagles, who went 11-6.
Here’s how it looks:
2026 Bears ???
2025 Giants 4-13, missed playoffs
2024 Browns 3-14, missed playoffs
2023 Eagles 11-6, lost in Wild Card Round
2022 Rams 5-12, missed playoffs
2021 Steelers 9-7-1, lost in Wild Card Round
2020 Patriots 7-9, missed playoffs
2019 Raiders 7-9, missed playoffs
2018 Packers 6-9-1, missed playoffs
2017 Broncos 5-11, missed playoffs
Now, before we panic, I think we should look at the team’s record from the previous year. If a team was bad and stayed bad, that certainly isn’t the Bears case, so let’s look at how those teams did previously.
2024 Giants 3-14
2023 Browns 11-6
2022 Eagles 14-3
2021 Rams 12-5
2020 Steelers 12-4
2019 Patriots 12-4
2018 Raiders 4-12
2017 Packers 7-9
2016 Broncos 5-11
Five of the nine teams did have winning records the previous season. Now, other factors play into these numbers. For example, the 2019 Patriots had Tom Brady, the 2020 Patriots had a past-his-prime Cam Newton at quarterback. The 2022 Rams, Matthew Stafford missed half the season.
But overall, if we strictly look at how teams went from the previous year to the year with the toughest schedule, we get this change in win totals:
2025 Giants +1
2024 Browns -8
2023 Eagles -3
2022 Rams -7
2021 Steelers -3
2020 Patriots -5
2019 Raiders +3
2018 Packers -1
2017 Broncos +/- 0
These 9 teams, combined, won 23 fewer games the following season with the difficult schedule. Five of them had a winning record the previous season, and only two of them maintained a winning record; both of those teams (Eagles and Steelers) won 3 fewer games than the previous season.
One other thing to note: every team that did make the playoffs failed to win a playoff game.
With teams winning 2.6 fewer games per season, and the teams with winning records that maintained winning records winning 3 fewer games, history tells us the Chicago Bears will win 8 or 9 games this season.
I don’t think any Bears fan is expecting that type of season; none of those teams had an ascending quarterback and ascending head coach, and others had changes at QB or dealt with significant injuries as well.
But if the Bears are going to improve on their 11-6 record and win some playoff games, based on the last 10 years of data, they will be the anomaly.
If anyone can do it, it’s Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams.
Time will tell.
