The Rutgers vs UMass disaster was one few could predict, especially the Rutgers fans who write for this site. We all learned a lot about, more than we cared to know, who our team was in that game. With that in mind, we thought it appropriate to adjust our record predictions from two weeks ago to something a little more reasonable, given what we now know.
Andrew Rice
What a disaster that was. Lonergan struggled to hit the open receivers and not turn the ball over. The offensive line struggled to keep the quarterback
upright and open holes for Antwan Raymond. Our star running back was kept silent all night because of that. KJ Duff’s near 200-yard performance essentially meant nothing.
It only gets worse when talking about the defense. Couldn’t tackle, couldn’t get a pass rush, Schiano’s struggles against mobile quarterbacks still rearing their ugly heads.
On top of all of that, Schiano gets to the podium and admits he was out-coached. This is something we expect from a team like Ohio State or Oregon, but UMass? Another sticking point was the lack of visible urgency when the team started to fall behind by multiple scores. Losing to a MAC team in blowout fashion is one thing; losing to a MAC team in blowout fashion without showing any urgency is another. I originally predicted Rutgers to beat UMass, Boston College, Howard, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. The Knights will still probably beat Howard and steal one along the way, but no more.
Revised Prediction: 2-10
Bob Cancro
Whiskey. Tango. Foxtrot.
Let’s see, where Bob was right, where Bob was wrong. In my game prediction, I hoped the UMass game would be settled by the middle of the second quarter. I was right. The wrong team had settled it. I was wrong….very wrong.
Go back to 2024: RU is 4-0 after September, 0-3 in October. And during a midseason bye week, Rutgers decided to “tear it down to the studs,” completely rebuilding the defensive scheme and tweaking player personnel. The guy who did that was Joe Harasymiak.
When the OTB Staff made its predictions for the season, I crossed my fingers and said 6-6; I was fluctuating between that and 5-7 but…. Well, one of the sixes is gone since it’s now an L after last Thursday. I thought a bad game against BC was possible, and still do. And without those two wins, and the way the defense played, and the issue with the quarterback (who saw that coming?), this team is in trouble. After week one!
One of our readers in the post-game comments said something to the effect of ‘forget all the slogans, the Schiano mantras, the belief in yourself’ stuff; it’s fantasy and now useless. CHOP all you want; this is one hell of a forest to cut yourself out of and you have to feel that there are a few players who are starting to doubt themselves, the team, the coaches. This team was manhandled by a lesser – although I believe much better than we all thought – team. But it was still UMass and you’re a Big Ten team. 2024: Joe Harasymiak rebuilt the Rutgers defense and saved a season. 2026: Joe Harasymiak rebuilt an entire team and exposed Rutgers.
Schiano says the right stuff; he is a pretty good motivator. But all that is meaningless if you misjudge your talent and giving 110% is still going to come up short. I figured UMass, BC, Howard, Maryland, Michigan State, and Northwestern to get to six. All of the remaining possible wins are question marks right now, and is Schiano that good a motivator to dig this team out of the hole they’re in?
Revised Prediction: 2-10
Ryan Castellano
We came, we saw, and we got conquered…
In my section for the season prediction, this was explicitly said:
“The quarterback position isn’t the problem here yet, though knowing Rutgers, Sean Ashenfelder will probably see action this year, and it won’t be during a blowout win.”
Half right. Ashenfelder’s number is coming, and it won’t be during a blowout win. But the quarterback isn’t what lost Thursday night. Dylan Lonergan threw for 242 yards, 196 of them to KJ Duff, and has already lost the confidence of the AJ Surace fans anyway, which tells you more about the mood on the banks than it does about his arm. What lost Thursday night was a defense that let Joe Harasymiak, Rutgers’ own former defensive coordinator, walk into SHI Stadium and end a 16-game UMass losing streak in front of 42,454 people. William Watson III threw three touchdowns. Antwan Raymond, who ran for 1,241 yards last season, finished with 42. That wasn’t the only miss. Jai Patel isn’t the starting kicker, Dane Pizzaro is. But the line that matters is this one:
I really have selective faith in Rutgers’ record, as I believe that the record won’t be indicative of the performance on the field. Rutgers gets an easy three non-conference wins against UMass, Boston College, and Howard. They’ll come into Thanksgiving weekend at 5-6…
Let’s not sugarcoat this: Rutgers is going to have a record that is very indicative of how they play this season. With the remaining 11 games on this schedule, I can say with confidence there is a single game I believe this team can win, that being the home game against Howard.
Even that game could be dicey. Howard beat Alabama A&M by a score on opening weekend, looks to host #23 (FCS) Richmond in, and travels to Indiana on the 12th. If Howard’s only loss is to Indiana, then buckle up for the most decisive game of this season, solely because it’s likely the only win we will see from Rutgers Football. Yet, if there is a way to lose to an FCS team, this program has just spent a week showing you it knows the route.
Revised Prediction: 1-11
Arnav Sarkar
Wow. Just wow. After Rutgers flopped against UMass, all of the bets for even a five to six win season are completely off. I said everything I needed to about the debacle in my analysis piece, so I will focus my writing on looking forward to the final eleven games.
Howard might be the only game Rutgers has a talent advantage in the rest of the way, and like Ryan mentioned, after this game, that one might be dicey. However, I’ll be a little more optimistic. I do believe that AJ Surace will end up starting at some point, and I have more faith in him than Lonergan at the helm. And a Big Ten team in this phase of the Schiano 2.0 era cannot look and play that awful for a full twelve-game season.
I can’t see the Knights turning it around this quickly and knocking off Boston College, although I will be looking towards the Boston College-Cincinnati game to get a better read on the 2026 Eagles. However, I do think Rutgers finds a way to steal a couple Big Ten games, maybe against Michigan State and Maryland. This might be unreasonably optimistic, but Rutgers looks like a very bad Big Ten team this year, not a sub-Big Ten team.
Revised Prediction: 3-9
Greg Patuto
Vertical alignment be damned! Greg Schiano, your days seem numbered after the season opener. There was no sense in firing a head coach one game into the season, but if Rutgers does not rebound in a drastic way and make it to bowl season, a chance should be made.
And do any of us think that is going to happen? The answer is no.
Let’s look at the schedule once again. UMass was supposed to be a win but instead, it is 0-1. Other losses remain USC, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, and most likely Nebraska. That is seven losses on the year.
The team needs to beat Howard in Week 3. This means Rutgers would have games with Boston College, Maryland, Northwestern, and Michigan State. It seems fair to have Rutgers win two of those games. Maybe three if you are being generous, but maybe they squeak out a win against Michigan State.
Rutgers is now underdog against a Boston College team that went 2-10 last season. That means if they lose, the Scarlet Knights would be 0-2 to begin the year against programs that combined to go 2-22 last season. But hey, lets keep Choppin!
