Call me a bad fan, but I did not realize the Cardinals had a doubleheader today until I sat down to write this article. And because there’s a doubleheader, I’m going to share something I noticed when I looked at the matchups: the Reds are not in a good position to have a doubleheader or play 5 games in 4 days. They are entering today with a very taxed bullpen.
Yesterday, they lost 7-1 but they were in the game until the 9th inning, so they still used some of their high leverage relievers. Nick Lodolo
pitched in his second game since coming off the IL, so I assume he was on some kind of pitch count. He only threw 73 pitches in 5 scoreless innings. His replacement, Julian Garcia, threw 2 scoreless innings of his own, however it required 35 pitches. That would seemingly knock him out of tomorrow’s game and probably in an ideal world Tuesday as well. But I think they’ll be forced to pitch him Tuesday and possibly tomorrow as you will soon see.
Tejay Antone came into a 0-0 game in the top of the 8th inning. He got the first two guys out, then allowed a homer. Next: error, single, walk, walk. He needed 30 pitches and they took him out. Antone has been massively overworked. He threw 11 pitches on Saturday, 16 pitches on Thursday, and 9 pitches on Tuesday. That’s four games in six days, and back-to-back days coming off a 30 pitch outing. He has to be out for tomorrow as well, and ideally Tuesday. But I think he might be forced to pitch Tuesday.
Replacing Antone was Ron Marinaccio, who got the last out of the inning, and then needed an additional 43 pitches to get through a 5-run 9th inning. He is almost certainly getting DFA’d before tomorrow’s games, because they picked up him off waivers two weeks ago and they let him throw 47 pitches. He also threw 21 pitches on Saturday. 68 pitches in two days, they clearly have no future plans with him.
Out of their 8-man bullpen, two of them should be out today, and as of now, a third will presumably be replaced. Sam Moll, who averages less than an inning per appearance, threw Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday. Pitching tomorrow would mean four of the last six days, and he’s almost certainly pitching tomorrow, and then he’ll be tricky to put into games for Tuesday and Wednesday. Luis Mey pitched Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday. He also can pitch tomorrow, but you can only pitch every other day for so long. Pierce Johnson is the same, although he threw under 10 pitches in each of his appearances, weirdly. He’s not very good so that may play a role. Brock Burke has gotten two days off, though pitched 3 of 4 before that. I’m sure he’ll be relied upon heavily in this series. Lastly, closer Emilio Pagan is fairly fresh, but I think he’s being used in exclusively save situations, however if there is not a save situation, I think he’ll have to pitch tomorrow.
Which brings us to the replacements. I do not know who is getting called up to replace Marinaccio. Tony Santillan is a strong possibility, with two pretty good rehab appearances, but the timing is a bit awkward. He threw an inning on Friday and yesterday. Are you really going to immediately throw him 3 out of 4 coming off an injury? Wouldn’t be my first choice.
They have three relievers on the 40 man. Connor Phillips has been in AAA since May and he also threw an inning yesterday. Unless the Reds have very poor communication with the AAA team, I feel like you don’t throw Phillips in yesterday’s game if you have any intention of using him in a doubleheader. The two realistic candidates to me seem to be Zach McCambley and Zach Maxwell. Neither has pitched in a few days. Maxwell has unspeakably bad numbers, so McCambley emerges as my only real choice. It is possible they plan for both, but will option one of them after game one. If either of these guys pitches, it should be good news for Cardinals batters.
Taking the start tomorrow would seemingly be Chase Petty. It hasn’t been announced as of this writing, but neither Julian Aguilar nor Jose Franco has appeared in a game, minors or majors, since July. Chase Solesky was claimed off waivers earlier this month, so I suppose you can throw him in the reliever group since he’s only appeared in relief for the Reds. Brandon Williamson made his first rehab start yesterday so he’s out. Petty is literally the only option and there is no way this bullpen could throw a bullpen game.
Another wrinkle however: I don’t think Petty is stretched out. He spent June and July in the MLB bullpen. He threw 1.2 innings on August 7th, got sent down, and then pitched on August 11th, where he faced 12 batters and allowed 5 runs in 1.2 IP. So I’ll be honest. No clue what the Reds are going to do in the game where Lowder doesn’t pitch. I feel like they need a starter and I feel like Petty is the only option, but he hasn’t thrown more than 50 pitches since June 4th so I don’t think he’ll throw many innings even if he does start.
Meanwhile the Cardinals are in a fairly good situation. Luis Gastelum is probably out for tomorrow, having thrown 2 innings. Caleb Ferguson threw 19 pitches and hadn’t pitched since Tuesday, so he’s clearly available even though we don’t want him to be. Gordon Graceffo pitched as well and threw 19 pitches but hadn’t thrown since Wednesday. Both can pitch tomorrow. Riley O’Brien, George Soriano, Justin Bruhl and Ryne Stanek all had light weeks, workload-wise. Peter Strzelecki is here to throw some mop-up innings as well, throwing 36 pitches on Friday, but nothing else in the past week. Pretty fresh bullpen.
They also have an actual starting pitcher in both games, which is helpful. I don’t expect Quinn Mathews to last deep into the game, but he at least can. I don’t Petty can. And Andre Pallante has thrown 6 or more innings in 11 of his 23 starts and he’s thrown less than 5 innings just once. He can eat innings and he’s got game two. Pretty good situation, certainly much better than the Reds current pitching situation.
The reason I decided to go over all this is because this is the kind of pitching situation that could affect more than just today’s game. The Cardinals need to take advantage. The Reds are going to need to use at least one of their pitchers for longer than they want, and the Cardinals should score off whichever pitcher that applies to. I think they’re saving Lowder for game two, but it would also be helpful if they worked his pitch count to its limit against Lowder and forced him out of the game early. They could really make things difficult for the Reds. All the minor league options are bad pitchers. This is the time to strike.
Joshua Baez
It would be foolish to overreact to two games, but I do kind of feel like the two games represent a microcosm of what to expect from Baez. Well sort of. I would be surprised if we have more 3-HR games in store. But generally speaking, it will be rather easy to know when you have to start Baez and the games where you can sit him. If a lefty is pitching, he starts. No question. If a righty is pitching, it’ll depend. Keep in mind they have to keep his PAs below 130. He can’t start every game anyway.
If you look at his minor league numbers, he is batting .294/.351/.745 against lefties. That is a staggering .451 ISO and 1.096 OPS. He has a 27.9 K% and 7.2 BB% against LHP. Against right-handed pitchers, he batted .246/.320/.539. That is a still very, very good .293 ISO, so it’s not like his power disappears. His K% rises to 30.6% and to be fair, his walk rate is also higher at 8.2%.
But broadly speaking, he strikes out less against lefties and has more power. This was true in 2025 as well. He didn’t strike out as much that year, but he had a 23.2 K% against RHP and a 16.9 K% against LHP. His ISO against LHP was .271 and his ISO against RHP was .187. He is undeniably a lefty masher and his MLB success will hinge on how he adjusts to right-handed pitching.
So Oli Marmol can look at the week ahead, see which games features left-handed starters and know Baez is penciled in for that game. And then he can structure his off days around that. This week, he will obviously start one of the two doubleheaders and then sit in the other one. Both probable starters are right-handed. Tuesday is Andrew Abbott, a lefty, so he’s got that game. The Cardinals have two very tough left-handed starters in Jesus Luzardo and Christopher Sanchez over the weekend, so it seems like a given he’d sit Saturday against Zack Wheeler. And I imagine he sits either Wednesday or Thursday and since Brady Singer is a clearly worse pitcher than Chase Burns and Baez would play four straight days, I would bet he sits Wednesday as well. (Burns is the scheduled pitcher)
I assume most of you know the deal, but just a warning: Joshua Baez will sit some games. He will also be on the bench as a pinch-hitting option on games where you sit him. It’s all a part of the plan. The Cardinals have 38 games left. If he played in every one of them and got 4 plate appearances per game – and we know that doesn’t happen since he’s played in two games and gotten 9 plate appearances – he would have 161 PAs. And again, I’m sure there will be games where a lefty reliever will be on the mound and Marmol will want to pinch-hit Baez. So he’s probably targeted for 25 starts the rest of this season.
Offense, do your thing, this is your series. Make it easy for the pitchers, although Great American Smallpark is never easy for pitchers.
