At the beginning of the season, Chicago Bears’ coach Ben Johnson stated that he wanted to set the all-time scoring record. Many laughed; some just saw it as typical coaching bluster, but then the Bears went out and put 59 on Carolina. I don’t think Johnson deals much in empty bluster, and while this statement may have been the kind of thing that’s just empty rhetoric from most coaches, it’s actually smarter than we all realize.
While the Bears were blowing the doors off the competition, the Green
Bay Packers were surrendering (again) a double-digit lead and getting outscored 29-3 in the second half. On their first drive of the second half, after picking up a few first downs on a Marshawn Lloyd run, and a pass to Tucker Kraft, they lost a yard on a first-down Chris Brooks run, suffered an incomplete pass, and then on third and eleven, gained one yard on a Chris Brooks give-up run. Daniel Whelan then shanked a 22-yard punt.
This loss is certainly not all on LaFleur. The Vikings’ defense was a poor matchup for the Packers’ guards, the refs were just bizarre, etc., but my point here is that I very much doubt you will find Ben Johnson calling give-up third-and-eleven running plays, even with a large lead. Ben Johnson realizes that in the modern NFL, you cannot “manage the game.”
Managing the Game
The idea of “managing the game” is an old one, and it speaks to every risk-averse coach that has ever coached. Once you have established a “safe” lead, you manage the game by not committing any turnovers, running the ball to burn as much clock as you can, and then punting to force the opposing offense to go the length of the field. This was, in all honesty, never a good idea, and widespread adherence by almost every coach is one of the reasons the NFL was and is so exciting. Comebacks become much more likely when you call off the dogs.
It’s an even sillier idea now. Ten years ago, the average drive started at the 27. It’s now beyond the 30, with some big-play potential also restored on kickoffs, and a punitive touchback rule. Ten years ago, a 52-yard field goal was considered long. Now, kickers routinely hit 60-yarders. The bottom line is that on any given drive, holding an opponent scoreless is EXTREMELY difficult because that opponent generally only needs to pick up maybe two first downs to move into scoring range.
Offenses have also become more efficient in understanding when to go for it on fourth down. And as we saw last week, the current state of the rules vastly favors the offense. Defense in the NFL is harder than it has ever been, and scoring is more likely than it has ever been. If any team attempts to manage the game or call off the dogs with anything other than a truly massive lead, they are probably going to lose or at least put themselves in danger.
Matt LaFleur brings a lot of positives to the table, but his love of the running game, and the glacial pace of the offense plays extremely poorly in this environment, especially given the Packers’ current weaknesses on the offensive line. Their slow pace of play means that the Packers NEVER generate an insurmountable lead, because they simply don’t have enough drives to do so. And because LaFleur seemingly needs to run the ball a certain amount, especially with a lead, the Packers almost always wind up throwing away a drive or two every game. That’s often enough to doom them.
Ben Johnson also likes to make fun of Matt LaFleur, and I know this gets under the skin of at least a few Packers fans. But as always, the way to combat such things is to be able to point to the scoreboard. For the foreseeable future, Johnson owns the scoreboard.
