The Indianapolis Colts did not play in the NFL’s Week 11 slate, but they still took a loss of sorts.
Although Indy’s commercial break from regularly scheduled programming allowed them to reset both mentally and phyiscally, they had to sit back and watch the rest of the league fight for playoff seeding. As a result, the Colts (8-2) went from the AFC’s number one seed entering the week, to the third seed after wins by the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos move them to a now-leading 9-2 record.
Furthermore, the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) have closed the gap on the Colts lead in the division after a win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans (5-5) have found themselves back in the conversation with Davis Mills leading the charge and two matchups with the Colts left to go.
Is Indy’s chances at a Wild Card bye in jeopardy? Perhaps, but at least they control their own destiny.
The Colts may currently sit below the Broncos on the AFC standings, however, so long as they’re able to match Denver’s record by the season’s conclusion, they’ll have the head-to-head tiebreaker. The same outcome will bode in Indy’s favor so long as they maintain the same win-loss record given they currently hold the better winning percentage of games played within the conference of the two. Had both the Patriots and Broncos lost this past weekend, the Colts would be in pole position with leeway to spare, but now they must remain vigilant.
Similarly for the AFC South’s outlook, a Jaguars loss would’ve all but strengthened a Colts resume for winning the division, but now Indianapolis can afford no mishaps. The Colts’ 2-0 record in the division may be leading as of now, but they have yet to play either Jacksonville or Houston. Fans and analysts alike understand that a Colts loss in Jacksonville is inevitable at this point, but so was their fate of Week 1 losses, therefore this could be the year that all curses in Indianapolis are lifted.
Here’s a look at the remaining strength of schedules by win percentage for the teams in question (hardest SoS first) to get a better idea of what level of a final stretch they’re up against:
4. Colts (.577)
5. Texans (.571)
21. Broncos (.484)
28. Jaguars (.451)
31. Patriots (.371)
Although their outlook post-bye week is steeper than you’d hope for, the Colts remain in prime position to make the playoffs. The number one overall seed is no longer in their possession, but Indy is in control of their own destiny — something this organization hasn’t been able to say since the 2021-22 season. So long as another organizational collapse doesn’t reveal itself, the Colts have no reason to worry about anyone but themselves.
