Kinnick Stadium on a September afternoon is one of the great environments in college football. Iowa State walks in Saturday as 14 point underdogs in year one of a new era. The pressure is entirely on Iowa. The Cyclones have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
The SDSU Connection
Iowa fans do not like to remember the 2022 game against South Dakota State. The Hawkeyes survived 7-3 in what was one of the ugliest wins in recent Kinnick history. What makes that game relevant this week is that Jimmy
Rogers was SDSU’s defensive coordinator that day. He schemed that defense.
Iowa has a new offensive coordinator in Tim Lester and this is obviously a different Hawkeye offense than 2022. But Rogers built his reputation on defense and Iowa State held Southeast Missouri State to just 10 points in week one. The Cyclones are going to try to make this game ugly if they can. Kinnick faithful should be prepared for a physical and low scoring affair.
Know Your Opponent
Iowa comes in off a dominant 40-0 shutout of Northern Illinois. The Hawkeyes looked sharp in several areas and one thing worth keeping an eye on is Kamari Moulton carrying the majority of the load in the backfield with L.J. Phillips confirmed out for Saturday. The fourth year back rushed for 183 yards against NIU and will be the featured back. Iowa State’s defense will know exactly where the ball is going.
The player Iowa State fans need to know about is wide receiver Tony Diaz. The transfer known as “The Boogeyman” lived up to the preseason hype in his Iowa debut against NIU, 84 receiving yards and a touchdown in his first game in a Hawkeye uniform. Diaz is a genuine weapon and a matchup problem for any secondary. Iowa State’s defensive backs will have their hands full.
The Key to the Game: Turnover Margin
Iowa State cannot afford to lose the turnover battle on Saturday. This is not a game where the Cyclones can spot Iowa extra possessions and expect to survive. Kinnick is loud, Iowa’s defense is experienced, and a team still finding its offensive identity cannot afford to give the ball away.
Jaylen Raynor was efficient against SEMO but the jump from an FCS program to a Big Ten caliber defense in a hostile road environment is significant. Ball security has to be the number one priority for Iowa State’s offense from the opening snap. One turnover in a game like this can be the difference between a competitive contest and a lopsided result.
Iowa State’s defense will keep them in this game. The offense needs to hold up its end of the bargain and keep the ball.
The Outlook
Iowa is at home, experienced, and a 14 point favorite for a reason. Nobody outside of Ames expects Iowa State to win this game. But a road upset in Kinnick Stadium in year one of a new era would be one of the more significant wins in recent program history. The kind of win that changes the energy around a program immediately.
It all comes back to the turnover margin. If Iowa State wins that battle they have a real chance to steal one in Iowa City.
