God help us, it’s NFC South football on a Thursday night. We really have to do this.
The Falcons, losers of seven of their past eight games, will face the Buccaneers, losers of four of their past five,
in primetime. The Bucs need a win badly to stay afloat in the NFC South, while the Falcons would like a win to be less sorry and play spoiler.
Who will get that victory? We’re going to find out, and it’s probably not going to be pretty. Here’s what you need to know about this week.
Team rankings
The Falcons are bad, but the Bucs aren’t great, either. They’ve coasted on a strong run defense and a stellar turnover margin, but they’ve been losing because everything else has seemed shaky. Baker Mayfield has thrown four touchdowns against four interceptions his past four games, cooling that ridiculous early season MVP hype considerably, and have not looked like the dynamic offense we’ve seen in the recent past.
The return of Bucky Irving and potential return of Mike Evans might help with that, but the Buccaneers look pretty mediocre. They’re fortunate that the Falcons are definitely worse.
How the Bucs have changed
Injuries and sliding have made them look as shaky as they did in Week 1, when the Falcons very nearly took them to overtime, and they’ve now been slipping for a while.
They are hoping to get Mike Evans back soon, but lost starting guard Ben Bredeson to IR last week and may be without Cade Otton and Tykee Smith Thursday night, among others. The Bucs have been a relatively stable organization the past few years, but injury and their declining performance may shake that up in the offseason.
What to know about Week 15
Remember that infuriating, close game Week 1? Now pile nearly a full season’s worth of weariness, injuries, and recent struggling on both teams and try to imagine what’s going to happen on a short week in primetime. The chances we get a good, crisp game are slim.
Atlanta’s biggest trouble spot in this one is likely to be Tampa Bay’s front. Haason Reddick and SirVocea Dennis are both banged up, which will help, but the Bucs can get pressure on a good day and have a very stout run defense as long as they have Vita Vea. Anything that strains Atlanta’s ability to run early with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier threatens to derail the entire offense, which has a banged-up Kyle Pitts and likely will be without Drake London once again.
The Falcons will have to contain Irving and harry Baker Mayfield to win this one, and neither challenge is unfamiliar. The team has had success when they’ve bothered opposing quarterbacks (Tyler Shough, first half Sam Darnold) and flatlined when they haven’t (Tyrod Taylor, second half Darnold) in recent weeks, and Mayfield’s turnover worthy play percentage rises while his yards per attempt and completion percentage plummet this year when pressure comes home. Mayfield has thrown for under 200 yards each of the past four weeks, and keeping that streak alive will help the Falcons keep it close enough to win.
Otherwise, there’s not a ton of say about this matchup, because it’s a familiar one. You have to deal with a banged-up but effective Bucs receiving corps, survive an encounter with a stout and opportunistic defense, and make Mayfield do stupid things while avoiding catastrophe in all three phases. If the Falcons can play a normal, solid football game, this version of the Buccaneers is shaky enough to beat. If not, we’ll all go to bed frustrated again on Thurday night.
