Game Information
Clemson 20-8 (10-5 ACC) vs Louisville 20-8 (9-6 ACC)
When: Saturday, Feb 27 – 2 PM
Where: Littlejohn Coliseum – Clemson, SC
TV: ESPN Networks
Louisville 2025-2026 Season
Rank: 24th in AP Poll
Previous 3 Games
2/23: L – 74 – 77 vs North Carolina @ Away
2/21: W – 87 – 70 vs Georgia Tech @ Home
2/13: L – 85 – 95 vs Southern Methodist @ Away
Louisville Personnel
Starters
Bench
Key Analytics
(Per KenPom.com – National Rank / ACC Rank in ())
KenPom Ranking – 18
Offense
Adjusted Efficiency: 125.2 (15) – ACC Only: 116.9 (4)
Adjusted Tempo: 70.4 (36) – ACC Only: 70.6 (2)
Average Possession Length: 15.5 (13) – ACC Only: 16 (1)
Effective Field Goal%: 56.6 (21)
– ACC Only: 55.5 (3)
Offensive Rebound%: 33.7 (80) – ACC Only: 32.4 (5)
Three Point%: 36.1 (58) – ACC Only: 35.9 (3)
Two Point %: 59.5 (11) – ACC Only: 57.4 (2)
Defense
Adjusted Efficiency: 98.9 (28) – ACC Only: 106.4 (4)
Adjusted Tempo: 70.4 (36) – ACC Only: 70.6 (2)
Average Possession Length: 17.9 (275) – ACC Only: 17.9 (13)
Effective Field Goal%: 48 (46) – ACC Only: 51.6 (6)
Offensive Rebound%: 26.8 (35) – ACC Only: 26.1 (4)
Three Point%: 32.4 (91) – ACC Only: 35.6 (12)
Two Point %: 47.6 (43) – ACC Only: 50.4 (5)
Key Stat for Clemson
(Per KenPom.com – ACC Rank in ())
*Note: I’m only using ACC 10 stats for this section because I think it better represents how both teams are currently playing.
Offense
3-Point Shooting
Clemson Offense: 34.1 (10)
Louisville Defense: 35.6 (12)
Thoughts:
Clemson 3-Point Shooting During Losing Streak
vs Florida State: 10-33 (30%)
vs Wake: 8/26 (31%)
vs Duke: 6/24 (25%)
vs Virginia Tech: 5/16 (31%)
Y’all are smart. I’m not sure I need to say anything, but I will. Clemson is afflicted with the terrible college basketball disease of thinking they can shoot the ball despite all evidence to the contrary. Teams are begging Clemson to shoot from the perimeter for a reason; they’re not good at it.
At the same time, I don’t think this Tiger is going to change its stripes this far into the season. If they insist on firing away from deep against Louisville, they’ll need to at least hit their season average. When the Tigers are clanking 3’s, they essentially guard themselves.
Defense
Turnover %
Clemson Defense: 18.8 (2)
Louisville Offense: 17.1 (16)
Thoughts:
One way for Clemson to make up for scatter-shot shooting is to increase volume. Louisville is one of the worst teams in the ACC at giving the ball away, and Clemson is one of the best at taking it away. Freshman point guard Mikel Brown is one of the best in the nation, but he’s turnover-prone. Look for the veteran Tiger guards to get into him and make things difficult; maybe he’ll throw it to the wrong team.
When the Tigers do force turnovers, they have to convert on the other end. Every point is precious for this team. Any points they can accumulate from turnovers are points they don’t have to score with a perimeter jumper. That’s a very good thing.
Brief Thoughts
For once in my life, I don’t have much to say. It’s not difficult to diagnose Clemson’s problem over the last four games; basketball is scored by the number of times your team can successfully put the ball through the opponent’s goal, and the Tigers struggle with that task.
Those offensive struggles have manifested themselves on the defensive end as well. When you can’t score for long stretches and can’t keep your opponent from scoring, you tend to lose basketball games.
The question for this game is simple:
Can Clemson find something reliable on offense?
Maybe that’s RJ in the post, or Davidson from distance, or Porter from deep…I do not care. Since the Tigers tend to put the ball in Dillon Hunter’s hands late in the game, maybe he can try to score before the last two minutes of the half? It seems like if you trust him to score late, you should be able to trust him to score early, but I’m just one rapidly aging man talking.
I don’t care what action works, as long as something works. Once the team finds something, they need to run it until it stops working. I don’t care if Godfrey takes 30 shots at this point, as long as he can hit them at a decent clip. Heck, even if he can’t, maybe he can draw enough fouls to help put the Tigers at the line?
To sum it up, Clemson needs to score points to beat Louisville.
Deep, I know.
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Predictions
KenPom
Clemson: 73
Louisville: 74
Drew
Clemson: 71
Louisville: 67
Looking Into My Crystal Ball
Seriously, y’all, the crystal ball I purchased on TEMU is not working, but hope springs eternal. This feels like the type of desperation game that Clemson wins by turning up the defense to 11. This thing stays ugly for 40 minutes, but the Tigers defense is able to create enough easy buckets off turnovers to take home the prize.
It’ll be a cold day in Columbia before I pick Louisville to win in any sport.
