Jalen Duren was announced as a member of the All-NBA Third Team last night. He was a Top-15 player this season (of those who qualified) after he produced 19.5 PTS, 10.5 REB, and 2.0 AST while shooting 65% from the field and 75% from the line.
Duren’s Production
For a way to compare Jalen’s output with other big men in the NBA, I’m going to set a filter of playing at least 40 games this season.
According to the NBA Stats website, Duren ranked 8th in scoring per game among all centers, just behind Alperen
Sengun (20.4), Bam Adebayo (20.1), and Karl-Anthony Towns (20.1). I’ll note of those in the Top 11 in scoring, Duren averaged the lowest number of field goal attempts per game as well.
Duren ranked 7th in rebounding per game among all centers behind Rudy Gobert (11.5) and Ivica Zubac (10.6) while being just ahead of Jusuf Nurkic (10.4). He ranked 4th in offensive rebounding (3.8 per game) behind Donovan Clingan (4.5), Mitchell Robinson (4.2), and Rudy Gobert (3.9).
His 6.1 free throw attempts per game was 3rd among qualifying centers behind J0kic’s 7.4 and Wemby’s 7.0. Duren was just ahead of Bam’s 5.8 attempts per game. Jalen’s 65% field goal percentage ranked 12th.
To sum that up: Jalen Duren had a fantastic regular season. And yet, what does he deserve to get paid?
All-NBA Money
The wrinkle in all of this is that JD is now eligible to sign a five-year max with the Pistons worth roughly $287 million. Prior to making the All-NBA Third Team, his five-year max was scheduled to be $239 million. The most that any other team can offer him during free agency is a four-year max worth $177 million.
Now that we know where Duren’s production falls and how much money he can be offered this summer, let’s see how much the top centers are currently being paid:
That’s a lot of cash.
To me, there’s no doubt that Jalen Duren is a top-10 center in the league. If that’s the case, you have to pay him like one. Given where he is at in his career, he should fall in the bottom-five of the above list – but, where?
The Offer
Chet Holmgren’s contract is the max that Duren could’ve received from Detroit prior to making an All-NBA team. To me, even a five-year deal worth $200 million seems like too much for Duren, but I wouldn’t be surprised if his agent starts the negotiations by asking for the new max of $287 million. At $57.4 million per year, he’d be the third most expensive center in the league – no thanks! Even at $200 million, he’s still making $40 million per year, more than Sengun or Gobert.
Out of that bottom-five of the above list, there aren’t many that outproduced Duren. Only Sengun outscored him, only Gobert outrebounded him, only Gobert shot better from the field, and only Holmgren shot better from the line. There are arguments to be made that he deserves to be above those guys on the list.
Yet, I can’t help but notice that the Top 7 guys can all stretch the floor. The jury may still be out on Sengun and Anthony Davis’ stretch big days may be over, but it sure seems like you need to be an offensive weapon to make $40m+ as a big man.
So, to conclude, I’d be extremely happy to get JD at Jarrett Allen’s value with a five-year $150 million contract. Since I believe JD wants at least $200m, I’d be willing to meet in the middle and give Duren a five-year $175 million deal. At $35 million per year, he’d settle in just behind Sengun and Gobert as the 9th highest paid center in the league. I feel comfortable with JD at that number.
Anything higher and I start to get uncomfortable about Detroit’s roster flexibility moving forward. The teams that will have the most cap space this summer that are most likely to offer Duren a 4-year $177 million max are the Los Angeles Lakers, Chicago Bulls, and Brooklyn Nets. It may be worth letting Duren find a contract that Detroit can match if they don’t want to outbid themselves, but if you want to think of trade possibilities in the event that Langdon doesn’t want to overpay for Duren, I’d start with looking at those three teams.
What contract do you feel comfortable giving Jalen Duren, DBB?
Go Stones.
