It’s been a roller coaster few seasons for the South Carolina Gamecocks. From the worst team statistically in the league to being tied for 2nd, back to the basement, there really are not many who have
a full grasp on what to make of the Lamont Paris era in Columbia.
Which is a better barometer? The team who overachieved two years ago but still finished with only the 8th highest analytics rating? Or the other two seasons of near basement dwelling?
It’s easy to point out how last season the Gamecocks were put into a blender with the best conference in college basketball history, and their 69th final rating in KenPom.com’s rating system in most years would have landed them around 9th instead of 16th. You can also point out how in their 0-13 start to SEC play there were 8 losses within 4 points or in Overtime. All told, the Gamecocks made Colonial Life Arena a tough place to get a win, but most of the league still got one.
So what does the 2025-26 season hold in store for Gamecocks fans?
South Carolina Gamecocks
- Last season: 12 – 20 (2-16 in conference) #69
- The Masses Prediction: 16th in conference, 3.29 – 14.71
- SEC Media: Coming October 15
- Analytics Average: 16th in conference, 100th overall
HEAD COACH: Lamont Paris | 4th Season, 49-49
Last fall, Lamont Paris had a field day with the SEC Media making their picks, and rightfully so, he had room to gloat. His team was picked last the year prior; they would finish tied for 2nd. But the year before, South Carolina was picked last and the only reason they didn’t end up last were a few wins over the SEC’s other really awful teams that year. As I mentioned above, they were the worst team statistically. Then last year, the media gave Paris the benefit of the doubt and picked SC 11th; they would finish last.
This year, I’m giving Paris the benefit of the doubt again and not picking them last, despite what I think might be the worst overall roster in the league. And the stats bear that out. Paris opted to go back to the mix that worked for him two seasons ago when he filled his roster with experienced transfers who could play his game of low tempo and ball control, and win close games. After adding just three transfers last year, Paris signed six players out of the portal.
Paris knows how important this year is for his future. Instead of getting fired last year and paying a buyout, boosters gave him an NIL budget to get things right. The only question was whether the offseason additions are enough to keep him going.
There isn’t a lot of consistency with this graphic. Still hanging onto the 10 year window is the peak of the Frank Martin era, when he won 51 games in two years. There are only two NCAA appearances, but SC as a program has only been to the tournament 10 times in school history. For context Missouri has been there 9 times since 2009.
So clearly there is some settling to program expectations. Martin made it 10 seasons with just one appearance, but one he got the program going a bit they never really bottomed out (in a non-COVID season, I should say — that’s why that 2021 season is so ugly). Paris needs to at least get back to respectability.
LOST PRODUCTION
12 in minutes, 87.38% | 15th in points, 91.45% | 14th
Possessions, 90.45%
The big loss was to the NBA when Collin Murray-Boyles declared and ultimately stayed in the draft, getting selected by the Toronto Raptors. Murray-Boyles was a big reason why the Gamecocks became a tough out, you had to account for him on both ends. Most teams even just tried to make him work hard and see who else could beat them, and most nights there wasn’t much else.
So gone are the top 6 scorers, and 7 of the top 8. The top 6 in minutes played are gone. All but 14 starts are gone. The Gamecocks are prepared to answer the question about whether losing production off a bad team is a bad thing or not.
The only returner of any substance here is Myles Stute, who spent most of last season dealing with a blood clot in his leg. Not to disrespect Jordan Butler or Cam Scott, but neither have yet to produce anything at the college level. Stute started 14 games last year, and 17 the year before. He has struggled to stay healthy since coming to Columbia, as he’s missed 7 games in 2024, and then 18 games last year. When healthy he’s a reliable rotational player who can space the floor. But he’s never been an initiator or a playmaker.
Scott is hoping for a breakout season after spending much of his freshman year as a back of the rotation player. But coming out of high school Scott was a highly regarded recruit. He was rated 36th in the 247sports.com composite, but never found his footing last year. And Butler found himself in a similar position as his freshman season at Missouri, when he saw increased minutes down the stretch for a team with nothing to play for.
The recruiting class is nothing to really get excited about other than Eli Ellis. The MVP of the Overtime Elite league, Ellis is a flashy playmaking guard who plays with a chip on his shoulder. His recruiting ranking isn’t anything exciting but Ellis knows how to play, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him getting starter level minutes at some point this season.
The transfer class here is deep, the best addition is easily ‘Mongolian Mike’ Sharavjamts. A well traveled skilled jumbo wing, Sharavjamts gained notoriety with a breakout season his freshman year at Dayton. He transferred to San Francisco and then Utah for each successive season. He’s big at 6’9, but super skilled and not really a guy who takes a lot of shots as he’s more of a facilitator.
There really isn’t a primary offensive driver anywhere in this group of transfers, so the hope must be that Meechie Johnson will return to his leading scorer ways of two years ago when the Gamecocks broke out. That team featured Johnson as the leading scorer, and the combination of him plus BJ Mack in the post were enough to drive the offense. This year the best Mack impersonator might be Norin Kapic, the UC San Diego transfer.
It’s a little hard to get a read on the depth here, but this looks like the upside play. There’s some hope that Cam Scott becomes the player he was recruited to be, and you have sound experience at both the other guard spots. Sprinkle in a playmaking forward like Sharavjamts, and a physical middle man like Kapic and there’s something you can work with.
The problem here is just the possession math. They’re really going to need someone to eat possessions, and the only guy who’s done it is Johnson. Two years ago he hit 26.2% usage, and 28.4% of the shots. Kapic was 23.7% for each at UC San Diego last year, that was in the Big West. BJ Mack held firm at 27.7% usage and 30.4% of the shots two years ago for South Carolina.
Kapic and Mack aren’t the same style of player, either. Mack feasted in post ups, and last year Kopic had only 41 post ups for UCSD. What made Mack so effective was the amount of post ups he was fed, 135 per Synergy Sports. Where do you go when the offense breaks down?
What do you do when your job is in jeopardy? Stack up wins! Lamont Paris’ schedule last year was more aggressive because he was feeling pretty good coming off a 26 win season. But after last year’s 12 win campaign the schedule is pretty light. The only Quad 1 game on the schedule is the one they can’t avoid, their annual game against Clemson, this year it’s on the road.
Outside of the ACC-SEC Challenge, which resulted in the Gamecocks getting a sub-par Virginia Tech team in what looks like Mike Young’s last chance, and the Green Briar tip off (not exactly murderers’ row with Butler and Northwestern), there are nothing but home quad 4 games.
Yes, technically they get credit for a possible Q3 game against Radford, but there are no home games where they might lose. So if they do, alarm bells should start ringing. The positive is the conference slate is agreeable, the Gamecocks have six games against the four teams just ahead of them in the analytics: Georgia and LSU twice, and Ole Miss and Texas A&M. The bad news is both Ole Miss and A&M are on the road. Whereas they get Kentucky and Tennessee (#2 and #3) at home, while playing Florida (#1) twice. They’re going to need to perform on the road, something they didn’t do last year.
THE RULING
I’m writing this before the SEC Media picks are made, but I’ll be stunned if South Carolina isn’t picked last again. For Paris, he’s been there and done that. Put it up on the bulletin board.
Maybe this roster build works out, but it’s very easy to see why there’s skepticism. There’s very little margin for error, and we’re counting on a lot of unknowns.
It’s unknown what sort of production Meechie Johnson can provide you after missing most of last season. It’s unknown if there is anyone else on the roster who can scale up their usage and production. In an ideal world, there are questions answered by guys like Cam Scott and also possibly Jordan Butler. Butler has flashed energy and good play but he’s just been inconsistent. There’s a path where guys like Scott and Butler, along with Eli Ellis and maybe a transfer like Christ Essandoko take over more of the production as high upside guys.
When you dip into the portal and flip your roster, you are inherently trying to raise your floor. But most of these moves have shown the floor just isn’t very high. It’s possible that collectively they’re better, and Paris has shown the ability to defy expectations.
He’s also fielded two of the worst teams in the league in three years and each of those teams had a first round draft pick on the roster.
I know Paris is a good basketball coach. The success two years ago wasn’t a fluke; his success at Chattanooga before that wasn’t a fluke. But the analytics really don’t like this team.
EvanMiya.com’s preseason rankings have the Gamecocks 94th. BartTorvik.com has them 106. The Miya BPR total for the roster is the lowest in the SEC. That all adds up to a bleak outlook for the Gamecocks in an ever more competitive SEC. Can Lamont Paris pull off another miracle?
My Results: South Carolina Gamecocks — 15th in Conference, 4-14
About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.
If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results, send me an email.
Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.
The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an in-depth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.
GLOSSARY
* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player
GP – Games Played
%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury
%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.
ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.
BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.
PAR – Points Above Replacement, a Rock M+ proprietary rating measuring projected on-off impact adjusted for time on the floor.
PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.
For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.
