The ‘Cats have a big game Friday night in Los Angeles at Memorial Coliseum and an opportunity to be bowl eligible if they win. USC is a strong opponent, and NU will be taking on a very potent offense. Here are three keys to how Northwestern can pull off the upset.
Defend the air
USC has one of the best passing attacks in the country, averaging 302.3 yards per game through the air, which ranks 10th nationally. Pass defense has been a strength for Northwestern, which ranks 14th nationally by allowing only 173 passing yards per game.
Jayden Maiava only threw for 135 yards last week against a strong Nebraska pass defense, but in the three weeks prior, he had 328, 265 and 364 yards against solid teams in Notre Dame, Michigan and Illinois. Makai Lemon is USC’s top wideout and one of the best receivers in the nation, with 50 receptions for 776 yards and six touchdowns. His best game of the season came against Illinois with 11 catches for 151 yards and two touchdowns.
Another threat is Ja’Kobi Lane, a 6-foot-4 receiver with 26 catches for 446 yards and three touchdowns. The Trojans also feature other strong targets in Lake McRee and Tanook Hines. Northwestern will need to be at its best defensively, and Coach David Braun is optimistic that Damon Walters, Josh Fussell and Ore Adeyi will play on Friday, which would be a huge boost for the defense.
Continue to run the ball
The ‘Cats have been strong on the ground this year, averaging 174.6 rushing yards per game, which ranks 42nd in the country. They face a USC rush defense ranked 52nd nationally, allowing 143.1 rushing yards per game.
After a season-ending injury to Cam Porter, Northwestern has leaned heavily on Caleb Komolafe, who has 124 carries for 608 yards and seven touchdowns on 4.9 yards per carry. He comes off his best collegiate performance against Nebraska, rushing 17 times for 125 yards and two touchdowns. NU has been able to successfully pair Komolafe’s power with Joseph Himon II’s speed in a two-back system. Himon has 81 carries for 397 yards, averaging the same yards per carry (4.9) as K0molafe.
The run game will be crucial for the ‘Cats, leveraging their talented backs along with a terrific offensive line. The line has been consistent, tenacious and slightly under the radar. Caleb Tiernan has played at an All-Big Ten level and appears in some mock drafts as a first-round pick. Ezomo Oratokhai has been phenomenal and earned a spot on The Athletic’s midseason All-Freshman Team. Jackson Carsello has received multiple PFF honors and was named PFSN Center of the Week in Week 3. Evan Beerntsen has excelled at right guard, earning PFSN Midseason All-Big Ten First Team honors. Martes Lewis and Deuce McGuire have been strong at right tackle, and the line has performed as a cohesive unit.
Running the ball effectively will also help control time of possession. Offense can serve as the best defense, and by sustaining drives, Northwestern can limit the amount of time USC’s explosive offense spends on the field while keeping the game in their control.
Take care of the ball
One of Northwestern’s biggest challenges this season has been turnovers, especially through the air. A key stat is that NU is undefeated (5-0) when Preston Stone throws one or fewer interceptions and winless when he throws multiple. The defenses he has thrown interceptions against are solid, although Tulane may not be as strong as initially thought. Stone also avoided interceptions against a very strong Penn State defense.
Looking back at his best season at SMU, Stone completed 344 passes for 3,197 yards and 28 touchdowns with only six interceptions, although that was against weaker competition. This season, Stone has nine interceptions and has often forced throws into tight windows, sometimes facing double or triple coverage. His accuracy has also been a concern, completing only 58.3 percent of his passes and underthrowing Griffin Wilde and company on many opportunities. Stone has developed a strong connection with Wilde though, and continuing to target him when open will be critical, as he has been sensational for the ‘Cats this year.
Relying on the run game will also help Stone by opening passing opportunities when needed. Northwestern needs Stone to act as a game manager, delivering the ball accurately to open receivers without forcing anything. While fans may have hoped for more flashy production, Stone managing the game effectively gives NU the best chance to control the tempo and earn a bowl game berth.
