The offseason NFL discourse can get exhausting and every year it gets more repetitive. With every team, the conversation starts with how they got better before moving into how each rookie draft pick and free agent signing fits perfectly into the team’s vision. From there we move into offseason rankings that create faux outrage and then we finally get to the preseason where everything matters.
It’s a process known as “The Cycle” and it’s something that was outlined by a former writer here at TurfShow
Time, Joe McAtee. However, you all probably know him better as 3k. The cycle is defined by the following,
“The offseason is supposed to provide us seven months of puffery extolling the virtues of every team in spite of each other. Somehow, all 32 teams get better every year. Every rookie is looking the part of a successful NFL player. Every free agent signing looks to eliminate that roster gap for years to come. Every young player got better. Every older player avoided late career decay…That’s the way the league has been covered in the modern era by each individual team bubble. And it creates an economy for coverage that only allows for overestimation for players, units, and teams as a whole.”
In an era that almost has too much information, we’re trained to believe that all of it matters. Media members have begun tracking preseason stats, specifically for quarterbacks. Eliot Shorr-Parks, who covers the Philadelphia Eagles for 94.1 WIP, has been one of the biggest contributors to this. Shorr-Parks has gone as far this offseason as tracking joint practice wins and losses.
This isn’t to say that none of it matters, but it certainly doesn’t matter as much as we’re led to think it does. That’s especially the case when it comes to the NFL preseason.
Now, it makes sense that fans would overvalue the preseason. For many that don’t go to training camp, this is the only time to see the players in action. It’s only natural to place higher value on things that you see which for most is the preseason. However, what we don’t see are the things happening in the meeting room, the purpose of a drill, the play design, etc. that includes so much needed context. What’s going on behind the scenes and what is the specific coaching point?
It’s easy to fall into that trap and it’s something that I’ve done myself. Last week I wrote that the Rams had to find a way to keep Willie Lampkin. Back in 2023, I wrote that Tremayne Anchrum deserved a chance to start. Anchrum has bounced around five other teams since that column was written.
That’s really only to say that everything that happens in the preseason should be taken with a grain of salt. It’s how the Nelson Spruces, Luis Perezes, and others become preseason darlings. In 2022, Lance McCutcheon led the preseason in receiving yards, Anchrum was the Rams’ highest-graded offensive lineman according to PFF, and Jake Hummel was the highest-graded linebacker. McCutcheon didn’t make the team in 2023 and Hummel was nothing more than a special teams contributor. There’s nothing wrong with that, but following the preseason, Hummel was getting pegged as a draft steal. Quarterback Bryce Perkins was seen as a future backup and it’s hard to forget the Jake Funk hype train.
Another great example is Tre Tomlinson in 2023. After a strong preseason, Tomlinson was labeled a potential replacement for Darious Williams and a steal with the 182nd pick. Tomlinson was cut last offseason. Last year, AJ Arcuri and Logan Bruss were the Rams’ highest-graded offensive linemen. The season before it was Sean McGinn and Zach Thomas. Playing Thomas at left tackle later in 2023 was one of the worst personnel decisions by the coaching staff.
It’s a reminder of the gap between the players that make the 53-man roster and start during the regular season and those that play most of the preseason snaps. There are several examples of this and it isn’t just exclusive to the Rams. In the last three years, Chris Streveler, Will Grier, and Trey Lance have led the NFL in passing during the preseason with Kyle Trask and Trace McSoreley close behind them.
There are obvious exceptions and the preseason darlings that turn into solid contributors. For the Rams, this has been Jonah Williams, Omar Speights and Jaylen McCollough in recent years. Wide receivers Puka Nacua and Jordan Whittington had strong preseason performances. At the same time, players like Speights, Nacua, and Whittington also garnered praise by media during OTAs and training camp.
This isn’t to say that fans shouldn’t be excited when a player does well in the preseason. However, it’s also important to add context to the performance and understand it in the big picture. For example, it’s true that Stetson Bennett has played well for the Rams in the preseason. At the same time, that doesn’t mean that he’s suddenly going to be competing for the starting quarterback role in 2026. Shaun Dolac has been a standout on defense. Among 99 linebackers to play 40 or more snaps in the preseason, he’s graded 41st via PFF. While he has the second-highest tackling grade, that means he could have a similar career path as Hummel as a special teams contributor.
Again, preseason performances shouldn’t be ignored completely, but they also aren’t worth overhyping. That doesn’t mean the excitement isn’t real or that the players don’t matter. Ultimately, it’s just one small piece of the larger picture. Training camp and preseason exist for evaluation, not validation. It’s worth remembering that what happens in August rarely tells the full story and the level of competition and schematic intricacies are very different.
