Let’s switch gears for a moment from the pitchers I’ve been looking at and instead check out one of the top outfield free agents, former Mariners outfielder Randy Arozarena.
No question, Arozarena has talent. He’s a solid 3 or 4 WAR outfielder, generally good for 20+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases every year.
The red flag here is that 2026 was his best season. He batted .281/.381/.484 and led the American League in runs scored with 113, which was by far a career best (95 was his previous best). The .381 OBP
was also a career high (except for .382 in only 76 PA in 2020).
Why a red flag? Because Arozarena’s going to turn 32 in February. Would you give a guy like this a four-year deal coming off his best overall season? MLB Trade Rumors has him projected for four years and $100 million and The Athletic has Arozarena at essentially the same, four years and $108 million. Interestingly, the article in The Athletic has Seiya Suzuki projected at the same figures. Suzuki is a few months older than Arozarena, as is Ian Happ.
Both Happ and Suzuki are better defenders than Arozarena, and at those figures I’d certainly rather have either of the two departing Cubs back than Arozarena, despite Arozarena’s base-stealing ability. Regarding that, here’s an interesting note from the MLBTR article:
Arozarena runs quite a bit more than Suzuki but is actually a good bit slower in terms of average sprint speed; Statcast measures Suzuki with a sprint speed of 28 feet per second, in the 63rd percentile of big leaguers. Arozarena is at 27.1 ft/sec, down in the 40th percentile. He’s an aggressive baserunner, however, and that’s manifested in the form of six consecutive 20-steal seasons.
I imagine Jed Hoyer and his baseball ops staff will have a look at Arozarena, who’s been a fan favorite everywhere he’s been. Ultimately I think they’ll probably pass on him, and that’s what I would do as well.
